ECB says further euro strengthening would trigger looser monetary policy | Forex Factory

  • ECB says further euro strengthening would trigger looser monetary policy

    From reuters.com

    A further strengthening of the euro exchange rate would require more loosening in the European Central Bank's monetary policy to keep the overall policy stance as accommodative as it is now, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Saturday. Draghi said that euro appreciation over the last year was an important factor in bringing euro zone inflation down to its current low levels, accounting for 0.4-0.5 percentage point of decline in the annual rate, which stood at 0.5 percent year-on-year in March. "I have always said that the exchange rate is not a policy target, but it is important for price stability and growth. And ... (full story)

Comment Options
Aussi
Apr 13, 2014 6:19pm
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Quoting PA is King
Funny how just about everyone was wrong, including me. No gap up, no zero gap, nor the 20 or 100 pip gaps down some were thinking. Market picked 40.
I have had 2 buys to close the gap , waiting is the hard part
Reply
Aussi
Apr 13, 2014 10:57pm
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Quoting Aussi
PA is king , hi mate

Apr 14, 12:54:39 EUR/USD 1.38482  1.38496 Apr 14, 13:30:00 ¢50.00 74% ¢87.00 ➕
Apr 14, 10:20:53 EUR/USD 1.38463  1.38478 Apr 14, 11:00:00 ¢100.00 74% ¢174.00 ➕
Apr 14, 08:49:49 EUR/USD 1.38450  1.38482 Apr 14, 09:30:00 ¢100.00 73% ¢173.00 ➕
Apr 14, 08:16:03 EUR/USD 1.38502  1.38446 Apr 14, 09:00:00 ¢100.00 71% ¢171.00 ➖
Apr 14, 08:01:24 EUR/USD 1.38561  1.38505 Apr 14, 08:10:00 ¢50.00 78% ¢89.00 ➖
Apr 14, 07:44:21 EUR/USD 1.38529  1.38560 Apr 14, 07:50:00 ¢200.00 71% ¢342.00 ➕
Apr 14, 07:41:15 EUR/USD 1.38536  1.38600 Apr 14, 08:00:00 ¢100.00 70% ¢170.00 ➕
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PA is King
Apr 12, 2014 2:23pm
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Quoting artocarpus
How many pips gap down?

Or gap up? Market it tired of all the talking and ignores it...e/u just marches higher. Maybe when they actually "act" and do something about it, then you'll see a meaningful drop in the euro.
Reply
Exodus
Apr 14, 2014 4:51am
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Quoting Aussi
I have had 2 buys to close the gap , waiting is the hard part
1.38 is, amongst other things, the 50% fib retracement on last week's rise.

PA is currently at the 38% mark, it may move from here but the biggest lifts seem to occur from the 62% retracement. So let's watch.....
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Pip Anon
Apr 12, 2014 9:22pm
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Quoting ForexOracle
I agree. Speculators will push it as high as possible. They make big money on the raise and big money on the fall. The biggest the volatility the better

I think there could be some validity. I could see pushing 1.40+ only drop have it sink like a cinder block
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Pip Anon
Apr 12, 2014 10:17pm
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What's the point of a gap down? Rumors for potential QE are probably all priced in when this first started popping up.

Remember since the high of 1.3966 was hit in mid-March, the pair dropped to 1.3668 - 298 pips.

It only began to rise when the dollar sold off going into the FOMC. EURUSD will probably go higher to pressure the ECB.

The EURUSD may decline on QE, but I think it will drop just based on fundamentals.

I still think the dollar is weak and will probably decline a bit more due to the Feds inability to do anything productive. Should help support the euro to some extend near term

The daily and weekly chart of USDCHF shows clear downtrend. The pair is a clear proxy of the dollar index, .92 correlation. The DX is likely to test 79.06
Reply
chaosbun
Apr 13, 2014 3:56pm
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Quoting braincooler
Quoting ruffryders
no gap down. get a real life.

Quoting simply.monty
confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
-


Haha! :-D
I wanted put a full stop, but a hypen is more honorable for them.
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tankokjian
Apr 14, 2014 12:02am
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INTRA DAY IS BEARISH , LONG TERM IS BULL...

im amused by the reaction of traders here. if you got only 10 pips SL go for bears , if you got 100 pips SL then go for bulls on lower pull backs. im sorry guys i only have 20 pips SL max , if Stop out , i look for higher entry , done that many times , im ok to see alot of small red in my account but BIGGER GREEN PIPS.
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tankokjian
Apr 14, 2014 1:17am
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Quoting AdamGreen
i still believe euro will make 1.4 let we see.....
do you dare to put your entire account on the line to reach 1.42 ? market can remain in not sober state longer then you think.
Reply
Abhimanyu
Apr 12, 2014 9:33pm
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Quoting Pip Anon
I think there could be some validity. I could see pushing 1.40+ only drop have it sink like a cinder block
Agree. Most traders, big or small, shorting at this stage will place s/l at 1.40 most likely. So price has to go high enough to hit most if not all s/l before it will come down. If recent history is any clue, every time ECB official makes a statement about EUR being too high, it has been going higher. There are over 70% shorts and they are not going to let all these traders make a bundle.
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Maso
Apr 12, 2014 4:24pm
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Words are very clear!

He says the ECB still expect higher exchange rates before taking any easing actions.

I'm wondering why most of traders load shorts as they see the pair is hardly bullish!

)
Reply
Squeeze
Apr 13, 2014 1:22pm
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Looking at a monthly chart and the previous history I'd say 14400 is the tipping point.


Quoting Ill-b-back
May it go to 1.8, that way they might stop Yappin' and actually do something,,,,,,,
Reply
gustavhunter
Apr 13, 2014 12:56pm
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Quoting simply.monty
confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
Let me guess. You are short USD?

Reading all your previous posts you seem to say the same thing again and again and again...etc
Reply
braincooler
Apr 13, 2014 3:50pm
Permalink
Quoting ruffryders
no gap down. get a real life.

Quoting simply.monty
confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
-
Quoting chaosbun
-
Haha! :-D
Reply
aviz12
Apr 13, 2014 4:28am
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Funny thing, every other person, is fighting with each other, one says gap down, other says no gap, some says gap up.. Its fine to give views and opinions, but fighting with each other like a child, gives you no space at all to be here, Grow up please.. this is a free forum, everyone has a right to give his/her views. Accept it or Neglect.. but don't disrespect others.. Good Luck this week.. lots of upcoming Datas.

By the way i see EURUSD gap Down.. this week Dollar strength on the cards..
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priceaction1
Apr 13, 2014 5:32am
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@leknam very true, so far 1.39-1.41 is sitting duck area, lot of stop loss orders over there, so we can see action like last days of last year. a sharp price move above and than down side.
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Aussi
Apr 13, 2014 4:07pm
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bought the gap easy money
Reply
Aussi
Apr 13, 2014 4:32pm
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Quoting Aussi
bought the gap easy money
and if it falls again will get a bigger buy for when the gap fills
Reply
Aussi
Apr 13, 2014 5:04pm
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Duuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhh you don't say
Reply
Aussi
Apr 13, 2014 10:52pm
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Quoting PA is King
Many pips to you!
PA is king , hi mate
Reply
Ill-b-back
Apr 12, 2014 2:17pm
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May it go to 1.8, that way they might stop Yappin' and actually do something,,,,,,,
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PA is King
Apr 12, 2014 2:57pm
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Quoting Ringkon
Draghi don't want the price goes higher more then 1.40

Actually it was Merkel a while ago that said a normal range for euro is 1.3000-4000.
Reply
Rtm
Apr 12, 2014 4:13pm
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This pair is just a mess IMO
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Exodus
Apr 13, 2014 4:12pm
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...to me it looks like 1.38 before anything else. Let's see when Tokyo opens.
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PA is King
Apr 13, 2014 6:10pm
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Funny how just about everyone was wrong, including me. No gap up, no zero gap, nor the 20 or 100 pip gaps down some were thinking. Market picked 40.
Reply
PA is King
Apr 13, 2014 10:51pm
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Quoting Aussi
I have had 2 buys to close the gap , waiting is the hard part
Many pips to you!
Reply
giveachance
Apr 12, 2014 10:25pm
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if they want more stimulus euro goes up more. I see nothing new in his comments.
Reply
spinozagr
Apr 13, 2014 11:13am
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Quoting samooh
Euro to test 1,60 again
sure... when you are using logarithmic scale
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eqshack
Apr 13, 2014 2:21pm
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Gap is down
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eqshack
Apr 13, 2014 2:34pm
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Quoting chaosbun
-

Never listen to ruffryde cuz he is blind folded
Reply
chaosbun
Apr 13, 2014 2:06pm
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Quoting fxolive
Where you are seeing it?
Xe.com , 1.3842
Reply
chaosbun
Apr 13, 2014 2:25pm
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Quoting ruffryders
no gap down. get a real life.

Quoting simply.monty
confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
-
Reply
fx-trader777
Apr 12, 2014 3:18pm
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I am 0.9 lot short in EURUSD, 0.3 lot long EURGBP. Hope EURUSD 100 pips gap down and another wave to 1.35.
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ForexOracle
Apr 12, 2014 3:45pm
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I agree. Speculators will push it as high as possible. They make big money on the raise and big money on the fall. The biggest the volatility the better
Reply
Ringkon
Apr 12, 2014 2:18pm
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3700 in this week
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Ringkon
Apr 12, 2014 2:29pm
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Draghi don't want the price goes higher more then 1.40
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Ringkon
Apr 12, 2014 3:07pm
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Quoting PA is King
Actually it was Merkel a while ago that said a normal range for euro is 1.3000-4000.
Its true so far.
Reply
upasna
Apr 12, 2014 4:51pm
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Quoting WhiteCrow
what about metals as alternative?
easing in japan, us, uk, may be in eu now.
metal wlil go up
Reply
Ringkon
Apr 13, 2014 11:17am
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Bearish
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simply.monty
Apr 13, 2014 12:47pm
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confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
Reply
simply.monty
Apr 13, 2014 4:55pm
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buy eurusd buy now, great chance to take position at below 1.3850
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Kfx
Apr 13, 2014 2:02pm
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EU opened @1.3838, so GAP DOWN.
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Kfx
Apr 13, 2014 2:08pm
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http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/?fxcm=1
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johncena
Apr 12, 2014 9:51pm
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120 pips Gap Down
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Abhimanyu
Apr 12, 2014 10:07pm
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Quoting johncena
120 pips Gap Down
I want it too but not likely.
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jimmywong
Apr 12, 2014 10:56pm
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the ecb monetary policy cycle is close to the end. short at 1.38(+-)200 pips. the normal range 1.2-1.4.
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mijoal
Apr 13, 2014 3:24pm
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euro gap 1,3840
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blue_z_zz
Apr 12, 2014 3:16pm
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the market will push the euro higher and higher as a dare for the ECB to make them act on more QE
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Neqrotik
Apr 13, 2014 2:06am
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Quoting ruffryders
no gap down. get a real life.


I agree Ruff. I also see that you and I are on same page on USD CAD.
Reply
ps3
Apr 13, 2014 1:07pm
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Quoting Schminner
The only time Draghi will act on the euro is when it is dropping like a rock, otherwise he'll let it fly sky high....
absolutely true. he will act to save euro stay at higher ground. dont ever think his speech weaken the euro cause german will not let him to do that
Reply
braincooler
Apr 13, 2014 4:07pm
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Quoting chaosbun
I wanted put a full stop, but a hypen is more honorable for them.
Very accurate and funny :-)
Reply
card
Apr 13, 2014 2:50pm
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Ah man. I should have loaded up on the shorts.
Reply
CoolJL
Apr 12, 2014 2:43pm
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Quoting JackRock
I'm thinking at least a 100 pips gap down
Can't see that happening to be honest. Last time when he mentioned something similar it went 50pips down. It'd be less this time around.
Reply
MichaelBaz
Apr 12, 2014 10:52pm
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Quoting Abhimanyu
Agree. Most traders, big or small, shorting at this stage will place s/l at 1.40 most likely. So price has to go high enough to hit most if not all s/l before it will come down. If recent history is any clue, every time ECB official makes a statement about EUR being too high, it has been going higher. There are over 70% shorts and they are not going to let all these traders make a bundle.
3 cheers for a virgin commentator ! ! !

But to this?
Aye, totally agree.

Would put a hair shirt on it going on a quick ride up to 1.391 then easing to 1.389 for a steady march higher (include a dip an bounce past 1.387) till it breaks the camels back
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leknam
Apr 13, 2014 4:47am
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Nothing changed here, Draghi the master of speaking without saying much.
While people are trying to figure out the link between INFLATION and EXCHANGE RATE, the euro marches higher against most currencies.
The euro is a de facto D MARK (sadly unemployment and people don't matter any more to these european rulers) .
Most euro data is ignored. They have shrunk the economies and the only one that matters is the GERMAN economy.
In my opinion if you want a heads up on trading euro look no further than GERMAN DATA you are not going to get anything from Draghi.
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Idoscon
Apr 13, 2014 3:39pm
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Eur-usd 1.3839 -0.0046(0.33%)
gbp-usd 1.6717 -0.0016(0.10%)
usd-jpy 101.6100 -0.0100(0.01%)
aud-usd 0.9391 -0.0006(0.06%)
usd-cad 1.0978 -0.0002(0.02%)
usd-chf 0.8779 +0.0018(0.21%)
eur-gbp 0.8279 -0.0020(0.24%)
eur-jpy 140.6200 -0.5100(0.36%)
aud-jpy 95.4340 -0.0560(0.06%)







◾gbp-usd 1.672
.
1d
1m
1y
Reply
amviz13
Apr 15, 2014 4:00am
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in portugal the almost have hope eur/usd swing 1.30 to 1.40 not bad! I think not eur not dollar not strong any more, all the market eur and usd, not yen are to higth, the gold and silver maybe up. euro is dead !!!!!!
Reply
artocarpus
Apr 12, 2014 2:10pm
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How many pips gap down?
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BlazeHun
Apr 12, 2014 2:12pm
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What is the limit? Would they share with me please?!
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artocarpus
Apr 12, 2014 2:24pm
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Quoting BlazeHun
What is the limit? Would they share with me please?!
Few weeks ago said he prefer the price like it was 1 and a half year ago
(when it was 1,29)
Reply
fxolive
Apr 12, 2014 9:43pm
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50 to 100 Pips gap down for sure :-)
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fxolive
Apr 13, 2014 2:03pm
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Where you are seeing it?
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fxolive
Apr 13, 2014 2:10pm
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Awesome.. Thanks Chasobun! As expected the Gap down 50 to 100 Pips!
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fxolive
Apr 13, 2014 2:16pm
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Thanks KFX :-) Let it go down below. But I think it will go up after this Gap Down!
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wael shami
Apr 13, 2014 5:12pm
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Quoting artocarpus
How many pips gap down?
45.5
Reply
WhiteCrow
Apr 12, 2014 4:00pm
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what about metals as alternative?
easing in japan, us, uk, may be in eu now.
Reply
WhiteCrow
Apr 12, 2014 4:01pm
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Quoting blue_z_zz
the market will push the euro higher and higher as a dare for the ECB to make them act on more QE
quite possible
Reply
CoolJL
Apr 12, 2014 2:12pm
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Very specific about exchange rate but he did say something similar not so long ago.
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JackRock
Apr 12, 2014 2:22pm
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I'm thinking at least a 100 pips gap down
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Trader#27BA
Apr 12, 2014 3:40pm
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actually major European bigger price expects a little down trend 300 pips down and a reverse...and from analysis this is true because the major strength of Euro currenrly is capital flow and from european news the Eu32 zone has added 1billion dollars to the economy.....so more strength to the Euro ontill another monetary policy meeting...thanks to God for the gift of knowledge.
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ruffryders
Apr 12, 2014 4:17pm
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there is no gap down. this is boring news that make you yawn. there's nothing new here. EU see you @ 4000 this week.
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imez
Apr 12, 2014 5:11pm
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Dissenting opinions. Long or short the pair?
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Trader#A443
Apr 12, 2014 5:40pm
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I am new to forex, but from what repercussion and Draghi said that the pair had boards should rise to 1.40, ceiling supported by ECB, as exports become more expensive for buyers and cheaper imports, causing a deficit. Only what I think.
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Trader#DE87
Apr 12, 2014 8:12pm
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"A further strengthening of the euro exchange rate would require more loosening in the European Central Bank's monetary policy to keep the overall policy stance as accommodative as it is now"- in other words, they will act only if eu goes higher and while a gap dpwn is possible tomorrow it will be shallow IMO. Any sustained move lower will require underwhelming inflation and growth readings from the euro area and at least meeting the expectations data from the US. Many traders seem to ignore the possibility that Yelen and co may stop tapering if US data does not improve so I would not be shorting EU with reckless abandon tomorrow. We may just stay in a some 100 pip range or see 1.40+ just to clear the weak shorts in a blow-off top scenario ala last week of december.
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HardikL
Apr 12, 2014 10:45pm
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gap down for sure, but probably 20 - 30 pips
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ruffryders
Apr 13, 2014 2:04am
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no gap down. get a real life.
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boot
Apr 13, 2014 4:32am
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dump euro then you'll inflation up unemployment down
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samooh
Apr 13, 2014 5:15am
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Euro to test 1,60 again
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boot
Apr 13, 2014 5:38am
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dragi is a goose paid to talk junk euro is one thing to support benelux countries germany
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Schminner
Apr 13, 2014 8:19am
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The only time Draghi will act on the euro is when it is dropping like a rock, otherwise he'll let it fly sky high....
Reply
imez
Apr 13, 2014 12:11pm
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Quoting aviz12
Grow up please.. this is a free forum, everyone has a right to give his/her views. Accept it or Neglect.. but don't disrespect others...
Very mature comment!
Reply
imez
Apr 13, 2014 3:43pm
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I guess we'll just watch and see. Market opens in 20 minutes.
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AdamGreen
Apr 13, 2014 6:40pm
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i still believe euro will make 1.4 let we see.....
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Trader#CF7B
Apr 12, 2014 2:24pm
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I would...GUESS that the cap is 1.40 because that is a major psychological level and warnings came just before.
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Trader#CF7B
Apr 12, 2014 2:26pm
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Market could very likely welcome the comment by a green candle above 1.40, and it would be an even bigger gift for traders to add short positions...
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Trader#F9A2
Apr 12, 2014 8:54pm
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Looser monetary policy will requires sacrifice from the ecb,the strengthening of euro exchange rate will only give the eurozone more action than more advantage to increase the ability of the buyers.
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Trader#CF7B
Apr 13, 2014 12:08pm
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EUR/USD at 1.60...ah yeah that was the bubble when Greece and Spain weren't at +25% unemployment rate right ?
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Trader#C4B2
Apr 13, 2014 2:02pm
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Gap down 1.3842 at the moment
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Trader#C4B2
Apr 13, 2014 2:05pm
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http://www.dailyfx.com/forex_rates
Reply

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