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  • ECB says further euro strengthening would trigger looser monetary policy

    From reuters.com

    A further strengthening of the euro exchange rate would require more loosening in the European Central Bank's monetary policy to keep the overall policy stance as accommodative as it is now, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Saturday. Draghi said that euro appreciation over the last year was an important factor in bringing euro zone inflation down to its current low levels, accounting for 0.4-0.5 percentage point of decline in the annual rate, which stood at 0.5 percent year-on-year in March. "I have always said that the exchange rate is not a policy target, but it is important for price stability and growth. And ... (full story)

How many pips gap down?
Very specific about exchange rate but he did say something similar not so long ago.
What is the limit? Would they share with me please?!
May it go to 1.8, that way they might stop Yappin' and actually do something,,,,,,,
Come with me if you want to live....
3700 in this week
I'm thinking at least a 100 pips gap down
Quoting artocarpus
How many pips gap down?

Or gap up? Market it tired of all the talking and ignores it...e/u just marches higher. Maybe when they actually "act" and do something about it, then you'll see a meaningful drop in the euro.
Quoting BlazeHun
What is the limit? Would they share with me please?!
Few weeks ago said he prefer the price like it was 1 and a half year ago
(when it was 1,29)
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I would...GUESS that the cap is 1.40 because that is a major psychological level and warnings came just before.
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Market could very likely welcome the comment by a green candle above 1.40, and it would be an even bigger gift for traders to add short positions...
Draghi don't want the price goes higher more then 1.40
Quoting JackRock
I'm thinking at least a 100 pips gap down
Can't see that happening to be honest. Last time when he mentioned something similar it went 50pips down. It'd be less this time around.
Quoting Ringkon
Draghi don't want the price goes higher more then 1.40

Actually it was Merkel a while ago that said a normal range for euro is 1.3000-4000.
Quoting PA is King
Actually it was Merkel a while ago that said a normal range for euro is 1.3000-4000.
Its true so far.
the market will push the euro higher and higher as a dare for the ECB to make them act on more QE
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
I am 0.9 lot short in EURUSD, 0.3 lot long EURGBP. Hope EURUSD 100 pips gap down and another wave to 1.35.
kiss the trend
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actually major European bigger price expects a little down trend 300 pips down and a reverse...and from analysis this is true because the major strength of Euro currenrly is capital flow and from european news the Eu32 zone has added 1billion dollars to the economy.....so more strength to the Euro ontill another monetary policy meeting...thanks to God for the gift of knowledge.
I agree. Speculators will push it as high as possible. They make big money on the raise and big money on the fall. The biggest the volatility the better
So, you think you have rights? LOL
what about metals as alternative?
easing in japan, us, uk, may be in eu now.
World has no limits.
Quoting blue_z_zz
the market will push the euro higher and higher as a dare for the ECB to make them act on more QE
quite possible
World has no limits.
This pair is just a mess IMO
All posts are my personal opinion
there is no gap down. this is boring news that make you yawn. there's nothing new here. EU see you @ 4000 this week.
Words are very clear!

He says the ECB still expect higher exchange rates before taking any easing actions.

I'm wondering why most of traders load shorts as they see the pair is hardly bullish!

)
Quoting WhiteCrow
what about metals as alternative?
easing in japan, us, uk, may be in eu now.
metal wlil go up
Dissenting opinions. Long or short the pair?
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I am new to forex, but from what repercussion and Draghi said that the pair had boards should rise to 1.40, ceiling supported by ECB, as exports become more expensive for buyers and cheaper imports, causing a deficit. Only what I think.
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"A further strengthening of the euro exchange rate would require more loosening in the European Central Bank's monetary policy to keep the overall policy stance as accommodative as it is now"- in other words, they will act only if eu goes higher and while a gap dpwn is possible tomorrow it will be shallow IMO. Any sustained move lower will require underwhelming inflation and growth readings from the euro area and at least meeting the expectations data from the US. Many traders seem to ignore the possibility that Yelen and co may stop tapering if US data does not improve so I would not be shorting EU with reckless abandon tomorrow. We may just stay in a some 100 pip range or see 1.40+ just to clear the weak shorts in a blow-off top scenario ala last week of december.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.50.105
Looser monetary policy will requires sacrifice from the ecb,the strengthening of euro exchange rate will only give the eurozone more action than more advantage to increase the ability of the buyers.
Quoting ForexOracle
I agree. Speculators will push it as high as possible. They make big money on the raise and big money on the fall. The biggest the volatility the better

I think there could be some validity. I could see pushing 1.40+ only drop have it sink like a cinder block
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Quoting Pip Anon
I think there could be some validity. I could see pushing 1.40+ only drop have it sink like a cinder block
Agree. Most traders, big or small, shorting at this stage will place s/l at 1.40 most likely. So price has to go high enough to hit most if not all s/l before it will come down. If recent history is any clue, every time ECB official makes a statement about EUR being too high, it has been going higher. There are over 70% shorts and they are not going to let all these traders make a bundle.
50 to 100 Pips gap down for sure :-)
120 pips Gap Down
Quoting johncena
120 pips Gap Down
I want it too but not likely.
What's the point of a gap down? Rumors for potential QE are probably all priced in when this first started popping up.

Remember since the high of 1.3966 was hit in mid-March, the pair dropped to 1.3668 - 298 pips.

It only began to rise when the dollar sold off going into the FOMC. EURUSD will probably go higher to pressure the ECB.

The EURUSD may decline on QE, but I think it will drop just based on fundamentals.

I still think the dollar is weak and will probably decline a bit more due to the Feds inability to do anything productive. Should help support the euro to some extend near term

The daily and weekly chart of USDCHF shows clear downtrend. The pair is a clear proxy of the dollar index, .92 correlation. The DX is likely to test 79.06
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
if they want more stimulus euro goes up more. I see nothing new in his comments.
gap down for sure, but probably 20 - 30 pips
Quoting Abhimanyu
Agree. Most traders, big or small, shorting at this stage will place s/l at 1.40 most likely. So price has to go high enough to hit most if not all s/l before it will come down. If recent history is any clue, every time ECB official makes a statement about EUR being too high, it has been going higher. There are over 70% shorts and they are not going to let all these traders make a bundle.
3 cheers for a virgin commentator ! ! !

But to this?
Aye, totally agree.

Would put a hair shirt on it going on a quick ride up to 1.391 then easing to 1.389 for a steady march higher (include a dip an bounce past 1.387) till it breaks the camels back
the ecb monetary policy cycle is close to the end. short at 1.38(+-)200 pips. the normal range 1.2-1.4.
no gap down. get a real life.
Quoting ruffryders
no gap down. get a real life.


I agree Ruff. I also see that you and I are on same page on USD CAD.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
Funny thing, every other person, is fighting with each other, one says gap down, other says no gap, some says gap up.. Its fine to give views and opinions, but fighting with each other like a child, gives you no space at all to be here, Grow up please.. this is a free forum, everyone has a right to give his/her views. Accept it or Neglect.. but don't disrespect others.. Good Luck this week.. lots of upcoming Datas.

By the way i see EURUSD gap Down.. this week Dollar strength on the cards..
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
dump euro then you'll inflation up unemployment down
Nothing changed here, Draghi the master of speaking without saying much.
While people are trying to figure out the link between INFLATION and EXCHANGE RATE, the euro marches higher against most currencies.
The euro is a de facto D MARK (sadly unemployment and people don't matter any more to these european rulers) .
Most euro data is ignored. They have shrunk the economies and the only one that matters is the GERMAN economy.
In my opinion if you want a heads up on trading euro look no further than GERMAN DATA you are not going to get anything from Draghi.
Euro to test 1,60 again
@leknam very true, so far 1.39-1.41 is sitting duck area, lot of stop loss orders over there, so we can see action like last days of last year. a sharp price move above and than down side.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
dragi is a goose paid to talk junk euro is one thing to support benelux countries germany
The only time Draghi will act on the euro is when it is dropping like a rock, otherwise he'll let it fly sky high....
Quoting samooh
Euro to test 1,60 again
sure... when you are using logarithmic scale
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
Bearish
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EUR/USD at 1.60...ah yeah that was the bubble when Greece and Spain weren't at +25% unemployment rate right ?
Quoting aviz12
Grow up please.. this is a free forum, everyone has a right to give his/her views. Accept it or Neglect.. but don't disrespect others...
Very mature comment!
confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
Quoting simply.monty
confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
Let me guess. You are short USD?

Reading all your previous posts you seem to say the same thing again and again and again...etc
Quoting Schminner
The only time Draghi will act on the euro is when it is dropping like a rock, otherwise he'll let it fly sky high....
absolutely true. he will act to save euro stay at higher ground. dont ever think his speech weaken the euro cause german will not let him to do that
Looking at a monthly chart and the previous history I'd say 14400 is the tipping point.


Quoting Ill-b-back
May it go to 1.8, that way they might stop Yappin' and actually do something,,,,,,,
EU opened @1.3838, so GAP DOWN.
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Gap down 1.3842 at the moment
Where you are seeing it?
  •  Guest
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http://www.dailyfx.com/forex_rates
Quoting fxolive
Where you are seeing it?
Xe.com , 1.3842
Learn to Trade is Important. Keep your bias & ego aside.
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/?fxcm=1
Awesome.. Thanks Chasobun! As expected the Gap down 50 to 100 Pips!
Thanks KFX :-) Let it go down below. But I think it will go up after this Gap Down!
Gap is down
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
Quoting ruffryders
no gap down. get a real life.

Quoting simply.monty
confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
-
Learn to Trade is Important. Keep your bias & ego aside.
Quoting chaosbun
-

Never listen to ruffryde cuz he is blind folded
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
Ah man. I should have loaded up on the shorts.
euro gap 1,3840
Eur-usd 1.3839 -0.0046(0.33%)
gbp-usd 1.6717 -0.0016(0.10%)
usd-jpy 101.6100 -0.0100(0.01%)
aud-usd 0.9391 -0.0006(0.06%)
usd-cad 1.0978 -0.0002(0.02%)
usd-chf 0.8779 +0.0018(0.21%)
eur-gbp 0.8279 -0.0020(0.24%)
eur-jpy 140.6200 -0.5100(0.36%)
aud-jpy 95.4340 -0.0560(0.06%)







◾gbp-usd 1.672
.
1d
1m
1y
I guess we'll just watch and see. Market opens in 20 minutes.
Quoting ruffryders
no gap down. get a real life.

Quoting simply.monty
confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
-
Quoting chaosbun
-
Haha! :-D
BC
Quoting braincooler
Quoting ruffryders
no gap down. get a real life.

Quoting simply.monty
confirm gap up, i think euro will open above 1.3900, and gradually cross the 1.4000 level
-


Haha! :-D
I wanted put a full stop, but a hypen is more honorable for them.
Learn to Trade is Important. Keep your bias & ego aside.
Quoting chaosbun
I wanted put a full stop, but a hypen is more honorable for them.
Very accurate and funny :-)
BC
bought the gap easy money
KEEP THIS THREAD CLEAN
...to me it looks like 1.38 before anything else. Let's see when Tokyo opens.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting Aussi
bought the gap easy money
and if it falls again will get a bigger buy for when the gap fills
KEEP THIS THREAD CLEAN
buy eurusd buy now, great chance to take position at below 1.3850
Duuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhh you don't say
KEEP THIS THREAD CLEAN
Quoting artocarpus
How many pips gap down?
45.5
????
Funny how just about everyone was wrong, including me. No gap up, no zero gap, nor the 20 or 100 pip gaps down some were thinking. Market picked 40.
Quoting PA is King
Funny how just about everyone was wrong, including me. No gap up, no zero gap, nor the 20 or 100 pip gaps down some were thinking. Market picked 40.
I have had 2 buys to close the gap , waiting is the hard part
KEEP THIS THREAD CLEAN
i still believe euro will make 1.4 let we see.....
Quoting Aussi
I have had 2 buys to close the gap , waiting is the hard part
Many pips to you!
Quoting PA is King
Many pips to you!
PA is king , hi mate
KEEP THIS THREAD CLEAN
Quoting Aussi
PA is king , hi mate

Apr 14, 12:54:39 EUR/USD 1.38482  1.38496 Apr 14, 13:30:00 ¢50.00 74% ¢87.00 ➕
Apr 14, 10:20:53 EUR/USD 1.38463  1.38478 Apr 14, 11:00:00 ¢100.00 74% ¢174.00 ➕
Apr 14, 08:49:49 EUR/USD 1.38450  1.38482 Apr 14, 09:30:00 ¢100.00 73% ¢173.00 ➕
Apr 14, 08:16:03 EUR/USD 1.38502  1.38446 Apr 14, 09:00:00 ¢100.00 71% ¢171.00 ➖
Apr 14, 08:01:24 EUR/USD 1.38561  1.38505 Apr 14, 08:10:00 ¢50.00 78% ¢89.00 ➖
Apr 14, 07:44:21 EUR/USD 1.38529  1.38560 Apr 14, 07:50:00 ¢200.00 71% ¢342.00 ➕
Apr 14, 07:41:15 EUR/USD 1.38536  1.38600 Apr 14, 08:00:00 ¢100.00 70% ¢170.00 ➕
KEEP THIS THREAD CLEAN
INTRA DAY IS BEARISH , LONG TERM IS BULL...

im amused by the reaction of traders here. if you got only 10 pips SL go for bears , if you got 100 pips SL then go for bulls on lower pull backs. im sorry guys i only have 20 pips SL max , if Stop out , i look for higher entry , done that many times , im ok to see alot of small red in my account but BIGGER GREEN PIPS.
Quoting AdamGreen
i still believe euro will make 1.4 let we see.....
do you dare to put your entire account on the line to reach 1.42 ? market can remain in not sober state longer then you think.
Quoting Aussi
I have had 2 buys to close the gap , waiting is the hard part
1.38 is, amongst other things, the 50% fib retracement on last week's rise.

PA is currently at the 38% mark, it may move from here but the biggest lifts seem to occur from the 62% retracement. So let's watch.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
in portugal the almost have hope eur/usd swing 1.30 to 1.40 not bad! I think not eur not dollar not strong any more, all the market eur and usd, not yen are to higth, the gold and silver maybe up. euro is dead !!!!!!
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