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Weekly/h4 trend trading - flow

  • #101
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:04pm Apr 12, 2014 5:04pm
60minuteman,

Wondering why you have closed all EA at this point, where trend seems still on down.

On weekly, yeah, we are at around the latest high suggesting a reversal. Or does that have to do with your MM?

Ignore my recent entry - it's a late entry of the down trend, I know but I just wanted to see how it may turn out.

The grey dotted vertical lines shows the start of week, and the yellow dotted horizontal lines would be my entries on H4 in hindsight.

Thanks,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-04-13 06_56_31-EUR_AUD - 4 hour.png Size: 203 KB
  • #102
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:33pm Apr 12, 2014 5:33pm
Quoting danjuma
{quote} Hi 60mm, thanks for th offer. Ok going back to this statement: "2. If the trend is long we go to H4 chart and we wait for a/ price to make a new low for the week. b/ a h4 bar to close up. c/ price to break out of the high." If I use the chart below as an example (I am using a 100sma), and have already determined trend is down, so looking for a short trade. Am I correct in saying candle A will be the new high for the week, candle B has now closed down (a down bar), and candle C must break the low of (this is where I am confused) of candle...
you're right Dan, A sets the high for the current day, B closes down (our hint of possible direction change), C breaks the low of B and we enter.
We use this 3 point method not because it has high probabilities, we use it because it gives us easy to repeat structure. We want a low cost structure that insures we dont miss any moves, this works pretty well considering we have a random sine wave to play with

I stack once a week, once I have the high for the week I am done. (you can be flexible with this)
tradewith60
  • #103
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:38pm Apr 12, 2014 5:38pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} you're right Dan, A sets the high for the current day, B closes down (our hint of possible direction change), C breaks the low of B and we enter. We use this 3 point method not because it has high probabilities, we use it because it gives us easy to repeat structure. We want a low cost structure that insures we dont miss any moves, this works pretty well considering we have a random sine wave to play with I stack once a week, once I have the high for the week I am done. (you can be flexible with this)
Thanks for the reply 60MM. Do we enter as soon as C breaks the low of B, or wait for B to close and enter (with the next candle)? Thanks
  • #104
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:39pm Apr 12, 2014 5:39pm
Good system,
Thanks for your effort.
  • #105
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:42pm Apr 12, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting toppo qqq
60minuteman, Wondering why you have closed all EA at this point, where trend seems still on down. On weekly, yeah, we are at around the latest high suggesting a reversal. Or does that have to do with your MM? Ignore my recent entry - it's a late entry of the down trend, I know but I just wanted to see how it may turn out. The grey dotted vertical lines shows the start of week, and the yellow dotted horizontal lines would be my entries on H4 in hindsight. Thanks, {image}
just wanted to take some profit, my bias is still short though so will continue to short next week... I think I got around 2000 pips in total from this EA correction, so not bad considering the markets seem unsure which way to go right now.

I don't use any specific technical reasons to exit, they can be as unreliable as anything else. Stacks of a minimum of 4 is a good rule.... it would be hard not to make good profit for the year using a minimum of 4 stacks, obviously, the bigger the stacks the better (within reason)
tradewith60
  • #106
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:50pm Apr 12, 2014 5:50pm
Quoting danjuma
{quote} Thanks for the reply 60MM. Do we enter as soon as C breaks the low of B, or wait for B to close and enter (with the next candle)? Thanks
I do... but either works... you can be flexible as the details will not make it a winning or losing system.
But, you need to be able to get up everyday and execute your system, this is the only reason we make these rules... they offer no edge, our edge is that the probabilities are we will have bigger wins than losses.. that is all...
tradewith60
  • #107
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:51pm Apr 12, 2014 5:51pm
Quoting Greenland
Good system, Thanks for your effort.
thanks
tradewith60
  • #108
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:45pm Apr 12, 2014 7:45pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} just wanted to take some profit, my bias is still short though so will continue to short next week... I think I got around 2000 pips in total from this EA correction, so not bad considering the markets seem unsure which way to go right now. I don't use any specific technical reasons to exit, they can be as unreliable as anything else. Stacks of a minimum of 4 is a good rule.... it would be hard not to make good profit for the year using a minimum of 4 stacks, obviously, the bigger the stacks the better (within reason)
Thanks 60minuteman. Great guidelines of a successful trader to respect.
  • #109
  • Apr 13, 2014 2:59am Apr 13, 2014 2:59am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I do... but either works... you can be flexible as the details will not make it a winning or losing system. But, you need to be able to get up everyday and execute your system, this is the only reason we make these rules... they offer no edge, our edge is that the probabilities are we will have bigger wins than losses.. that is all...
Ahh! Participation, that's what's about, got you, many thanks.
  • #110
  • Apr 13, 2014 3:50am Apr 13, 2014 3:50am
Quoting danjuma
{quote} Ahh! Participation, that's what's about, got you, many thanks.
yes yes Sir... exactly.
tradewith60
  • #111
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:07am Apr 13, 2014 4:07am
not really traded USD/TRY before but it looks great on weekly for trends... will be watching this for signs the dollar is going to trend again...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-04-13 at 10.06.14.png Size: 35 KB
tradewith60
  • #112
  • Apr 13, 2014 10:54am Apr 13, 2014 10:54am
Hi 60minuteman,

Will you eventually be touching upon your MM in trading this system; 1% per position stacking 1 to 2 a week up 4 to 5 then close, recurring, etc? You trade 5 instruments ...

Thanks,
  • #113
  • Apr 13, 2014 11:34am Apr 13, 2014 11:34am
Quoting toppo qqq
Hi 60minuteman, Will you eventually be touching upon your MM in trading this system; 1% per position stacking 1 to 2 a week up 4 to 5 then close, recurring, etc? You trade 5 instruments ... Thanks,
Hi Toppo. sure I will do a bit about that.

if youre trading h4 entries I would suggest taking 2 positions at each entry, close one the same week and let the other stack as a position trade.
tradewith60
  • #114
  • Edited 2:09pm Apr 13, 2014 12:02pm | Edited 2:09pm
how often do weekly bars close at or near their extreme?

If you're using the double entry technique (you really should!) hold them to the end of the week (thursday, friday)

Remember weekly bars are unique to any other timeframe!
tradewith60
  • #115
  • Apr 13, 2014 2:55pm Apr 13, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} just wanted to take some profit, my bias is still short though so will continue to short next week... I think I got around 2000 pips in total from this EA correction, so not bad considering the markets seem unsure which way to go right now. I don't use any specific technical reasons to exit, they can be as unreliable as anything else. Stacks of a minimum of 4 is a good rule.... it would be hard not to make good profit for the year using a minimum of 4 stacks, obviously, the bigger the stacks the better (within reason)
Been a passive reader of this thread. Followed it from G.S millipede thread and I think you are doing a great job here.

@Bolded, the more stacks (and off course lot size,) especially when they are not in BE quickly, the higher the drawdown. The quicker the stacks are in BE, the higher the probability of losing the legs and sometimes your scouts. When do you move your soldiers to BE and how do you deal with drawdown apart from trying to sell/buy the wicks like G.S and letting the market afflict or reward you? Also, since you use h4 tf, do you only check your charts every 4hrs?

I'll try to post my my charts and stats from this week.
  • #116
  • Apr 13, 2014 3:54pm Apr 13, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting dboy365
{quote} Been a passive reader of this thread. Followed it from G.S millipede thread and I think you are doing a great job here. @Bolded, the more stacks (and off course lot size,) especially when they are not in BE quickly, the higher the drawdown. The quicker the stacks are in BE, the higher the probability of losing the legs and sometimes your scouts. When do you move your soldiers to BE and how do you deal with drawdown apart from trying to sell/buy the wicks like G.S and letting the market afflict or reward you? Also, since you use h4 tf, do...
Hi dboy, welcome.

Drawdown is reduced by entering with 2 lots - one is a swing entry, one is a position trade entry. The swing entry I close the same week, the position entry is stacked for the bigger wins. The swing entry will reduce drawdown, smooth the equity curve and make holding the position entry easier. The swing entry I move to b.e aggressively, the position entry I will move to b.e when I have a newer survivor... in other words I try to leave the stops at least until I have another position.

here is a chart to explain the structure... obviously some flexibility is always required within that structure
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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you will find that the second entry will cover your costs when the market fails to trend and that will help with drawdown and the psychological effect of a run of losses. Recent GJ H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-04-13 at 21.54.54.png Size: 64 KB
tradewith60
  • #117
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:17pm Apr 13, 2014 4:17pm
60minuteman,

I'm going to follow this because I think the idea of expansion of the RR is interesting.
Is your ENTRY still the same thing that Primo does with one of his strategies?

I mostly trade 1:1, but I'm slowly letting the trades last longer. Had an AU trade a few days back that I was in for 3 days. Even with the 1:1 trades that go further, I don't get upset because it usually retraces back in a few days, or I find something else I can trade.
  • #118
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:31pm Apr 13, 2014 4:31pm
Quoting acbrasil
60minuteman, I'm going to follow this because I think the idea of expansion of the RR is interesting. Is your ENTRY still the same thing that Primo does with one of his strategies? I mostly trade 1:1, but I'm slowly letting the trades last longer. Had an AU trade a few days back that I was in for 3 days. Even with the 1:1 trades that go further, I don't get upset because it usually retraces back in a few days, or I find something else I can trade.
similar to Steve primo's stuff... essentially this is the age old stock trend trading... find a trend, buy the dips in an uptrend and sell the rallies in a downtrend.

Modern times have seen us pander to humans obsession with instant gratification, we want everything quickly with minimum work - wonder why day trading is so popular? is it because it will make the most profit?.... I think you will be glad you started to hold your trades for longer, good luck with it, it takes a little effort but is more than worth it.
tradewith60
  • #119
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:50pm Apr 13, 2014 4:50pm
wow... you reply fast!

I'm trying to understand what you mean by:
1) determining trend direction - got it!
2) buying the low of the week

#2 is what gets me. How do we know it's the low of the week? We may think it's a low, but it goes lower?

Or do you mean to just buy the pullbacks/dips?

Happy pipping!
  • #120
  • Apr 13, 2014 5:03pm Apr 13, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting acbrasil
wow... you reply fast! I'm trying to understand what you mean by: 1) determining trend direction - got it! 2) buying the low of the week #2 is what gets me. How do we know it's the low of the week? We may think it's a low, but it goes lower? Or do you mean to just buy the pullbacks/dips? Happy pipping!
I have covered it a few times in the thread, have a look at post 99
tradewith60
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