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NZD/USD

  • #4,561
  • Apr 11, 2014 3:46pm Apr 11, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting ruffryders
this fairly ugly chart is Nikkei index W1. See last candle. The thing is melting down. Support? Are you kidding me, with today's selloff in the markets and RISK events over weekend, guess which out of the two buttons are japs going to tap at market open? Now with Nikkei sinking, and being an H&S setup as well, what do you think will happen to USDJPY? USDJPY goes down? What's the follow through then on kiwi and aussie dollar? Think about that over weekend. Have a good one guys!
also see triple top pattern on daily GBPJPY, this thing is going for 167 and possibly 164. This also suppot UJ bear scenario.
  • #4,562
  • Apr 11, 2014 3:51pm Apr 11, 2014 3:51pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} yeah, thank you. I scaled down on the NU/AU exposure, hower still looking for a sweet spot for re-entry. Currently I'd prefer a slightly deeper dip before buying. {image}
you'd be golden now, if yous just bought the dipper, as recommended today, at 8622. if you did son, congrats, well done.
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  • #4,563
  • Apr 11, 2014 3:54pm Apr 11, 2014 3:54pm
what other confirm do you need to LONG NU? PB @ major support TL on D1. C'mon guys, get a life.
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  • #4,564
  • Apr 11, 2014 3:57pm Apr 11, 2014 3:57pm
Very nice explanation ruffryders.Maladiets bratan.Just like we russians says.
  • #4,565
  • Apr 12, 2014 4:23am Apr 12, 2014 4:23am
here's NUs corr to swissy on monthly timeframe.

With swissy still having enough room to go lower by quite a bit (100-150 points), this in turn will result in NU going up by 200-250 points.
usually 1 point on swissy is 2-3 points on NUs.

correlation is fairly strong.
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  • #4,566
  • Apr 12, 2014 4:36am Apr 12, 2014 4:36am
Quoting ruffryders
what other confirm do you need to LONG NU? PB @ major support TL on D1. C'mon guys, get a life. {image}
you're a good poster.. and a great bull also..
Forex as Leverage
  • #4,567
  • Apr 12, 2014 4:59am Apr 12, 2014 4:59am
Quoting Rvb
Pending order at 0.86622 SL 0.86122 TP around 0.8840 {image}
GOOD. MAKES SENSE. KEEP IT UP.
  • #4,568
  • Apr 12, 2014 4:59am Apr 12, 2014 4:59am
Quoting chanlie
{quote} you're a good poster.. And a great bull also..
thanks. Time will tell.
  • #4,569
  • Edited 6:10am Apr 12, 2014 5:46am | Edited 6:10am
Quoting ruffryders
here's NUs corr to swissy on monthly timeframe. With swissy still having enough room to go lower by quite a bit (100-150 points), this in turn will result in NU going up by 200-250 points. usually 1 point on swissy is 2-3 points on NUs. correlation is fairly strong. {image}
Hi Ruff
Not saying it wont happen but from current 8675 250pips high is highest excluding 2008 crash spike
Fundamentally not a high probability scenario.

Harmonically its forming beautifully.
Daily chart
On weekly correlation does not even make top 10 but agree on monthly strong correlation.
http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/USDCHF

To see The bigger picture we must look at EU
strongest -99 negative correlation with U/CHF hence EU drop =U/CHF =NU drop
and fundamentally EU is topping out under current .25 IR (possible rate cut could be coming to stem off further gains)and low inflation plus Euro elections in May.
regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,570
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:37am Apr 12, 2014 6:37am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Ruff Not saying it wont happen but from current 8675 250pips high is highest excluding 2008 crash spike Fundamentally not a high probability scenario. Harmonically its forming beautifully. Daily chart On weekly correlation does not even make top 10 but agree on monthly strong correlation. http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/USDCHF To see The bigger picture we must look at EU strongest -99 negative correlation with U/CHF hence EU drop =U/CHF =NU drop and fundamentally EU is topping out under current .25 IR (possible...
Davit, your proposed harmonic pattern has equally-leveled legs. I don't know such pattern and it's not in carney's books.

The HTF Harmonic pattern in the making on NU tells a different story.

Also, you have to consider both price and time. The price for the top was not reached, as well as the time extension. NU top will be made 10-20th May 2014 close to 8900 level.
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  • #4,571
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:41am Apr 12, 2014 6:41am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Ruff Not saying it wont happen but from current 8675 250pips high is highest excluding 2008 crash spike Fundamentally not a high probability scenario. Harmonically its forming beautifully. Daily chart On weekly correlation does not even make top 10 but agree on monthly strong correlation. http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/USDCHF To see The bigger picture we must look at EU strongest -99 negative correlation with U/CHF hence EU drop =U/CHF =NU drop and fundamentally EU is topping out under current .25 IR (possible...
on CHF and EU I agree. I do not agree on direction. In fact with a strong weekly close, euro will still go higher.

here's Weekly and smaller time frame projection on EU.

To halt the EU uptrend strong overhead resistance must be met first, and this is not the case yet.
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  • #4,572
  • Edited 7:00am Apr 12, 2014 6:47am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} on CHF and EU I agree. I do not agree on direction. In fact with a strong weekly close, euro will still go higher. here's Weekly and smaller time frame projection on EU. To halt the EU uptrend strong overhead resistance must be met first, and this is not the case yet. {image} {image}
I am always in firm believe that Trend changes on Lower TF
By the time you get a Bear Week candle you could miss the move as much as 200-300pips and left with crumbs.

Looks like you disabled your PM
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,573
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:02am Apr 12, 2014 7:02am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am always in firm believe that Trend changes on Lower TF By the time you get a Bear Week candle you could miss the move as much as 200-300pips and left with crumbs. Looks like you disabled your PM Regards
ok. lets see what gives.
  • #4,574
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:08am Apr 12, 2014 7:08am
there is a sub pattern in the second lag ( and that's in very extreme ratio plus mr english did not like NU level at this moment ) , which is not drawn there .

Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Davit, your proposed harmonic pattern has equally-leveled legs. I don't know such pattern and it's not in carney's books. The HTF Harmonic pattern in the making on NU tells a different story. Also, you have to consider both price and time. The price for the top was not reached, as well as the time extension. NU top will be made 10-20th May 2014 close to 8900 level. {image}
Attached Image
not euphoria follower
  • #4,575
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:09am Apr 12, 2014 7:09am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} ok. lets see what gives.
Harmonically to me major point is last swing (80-8430) extension and price is right on 1.618Ext if violated you are correct next stop is 8812 1.200 fib
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,576
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:17am Apr 12, 2014 7:17am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Harmonically to me major point is last swing (80-8430) extension and price is right on 1.618Ext if violated you are correct next stop is 8812 1.200 fib

davit there is a cloud cover at 0.8700 and there is every chance sellers will come again and again over there. the more it stays at this level the more heavily it gets dumped when the correction starts. there is a genuine attempt by the fed to keep the dollar as low as possible. however governor stevens will not like the aussie to rally anymore from here and we all know aussie is closely tied to the kiwi.
  • #4,577
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:44am Apr 12, 2014 7:44am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Harmonically to me major point is last swing (80-8430) extension and price is right on 1.618Ext if violated you are correct next stop is 8812 1.200 fib
Possible retrace to 8640 Again

Advice to me and all:
buyers and sellers can make green ++ but next week try to go with the flow buy the dip , mostly we will see e/u@ 1.40 ,That's mean 88 for NZD
  • #4,578
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:10am Apr 12, 2014 8:10am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} ok. lets see what gives.
Ruff
You may want to read this report from Dukascopy's Quarterly report from Piptrapper

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post7401407
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,579
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:13am Apr 12, 2014 8:13am
Quoting egkid
{quote} Possible retrace to 8640 Again Advice to me and all: buyers and sellers can make green ++ but next week try to go with the flow buy the dip , mostly we will see e/u@ 1.40 ,That's mean 88 for NZD
I am holding for 8530 and it will get there next 2-4weeks or so.Please read the report
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,580
  • Apr 12, 2014 8:21am Apr 12, 2014 8:21am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Ruff You may want to read this report from Dukascopy's Quarterly report from Piptrapper http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post7401407
got it Davit.

here's a link from my side too. this will drive aussie further up, until we top out near 9600. I'd rather keep it simple.
Bottom @ 9200 range 400 points = 9600. slim chance aussie will be trading below 9200 this month.

My experience so far is that before rally fades out, more specs will jump in driving prices further up, before big boys start unwinding and dumping
into the new-born rally. So big ones are currently interested in taking both currencies higher, so that they can get out at the new highs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...since-may.html
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