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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #130,501
  • Apr 10, 2014 9:28am Apr 10, 2014 9:28am
Quoting Donaciello
Here's AUD/NZD again. I'm really hoping that 'Resistance?' is not going to hold and subsequently close as a daily BUOB, with a strong close. {image} Trade safe! W


I've been watching this one too D

I'd be careful the top of the true box is just above us, although a buob here will likely get us to that top area. I don't like trading continuations off the midpoint of boxes(the midpoint of any box is a PPZ). As it's a tougher area since you are trading into the major S/R

Notice the big box is made up of the smaller boxes

As an aside:

Lot's of choppy or sideways pairs I hope you all are being cautious out there

Best
Mike
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  • #130,502
  • Edited 10:00am Apr 10, 2014 9:52am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} I've been watching this one too D I'd be careful the top of the true box is just above us, although a buob here will likely get us to that top area. I don't like trading continuations off the midpoint of boxes(the midpoint of any box is a PPZ). As it's a tougher area since you are trading into the major S/R Notice the big box is made up of the smaller boxes As an aside: Lot's of choppy or sideways pairs I hope you all are being cautious out there Best Mike {image}
Thanks for the analysis Mike!

I saw this bigger boxing, but I found 2 lines squeezing this pair, albeit slowly.
The FTA I put in my chart (light pink) is rather an obscure pivot zone I noticed between the downslowing consolidation that preceeded the boxing, and the high that pokes through the top of the boxes (February 4th).
^^ Just a random post on it from back then.

Chart:
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If today we don't get the kind of PA we want, the ascending TL crosses the 1.08 soon, creating confluence.
So if today the PA isn't enticing, we could wait for price to take out the FTA and pull back to the confluence area, where we could once again hunt for PA.
Is this logical? (edit)


I did however see that the Box-ceilings would form a stronger TA in closer proximity.
Looks beautiful on your chart Mike, Will add this TA to mine as well.

Kind regards,
W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #130,503
  • Apr 10, 2014 10:10am Apr 10, 2014 10:10am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} I've been watching this one too D I'd be careful the top of the true box is just above us, although a buob here will likely get us to that top area. I don't like trading continuations off the midpoint of boxes(the midpoint of any box is a PPZ). As it's a tougher area since you are trading into the major S/R Notice the big box is made up of the smaller boxes As an aside: Lot's of choppy or sideways pairs I hope you all are being cautious out there Best Mike {image}
Thought this might be a good spot to reflect on a golden post from J16....lots of great stuff in this one, the most important piece to me though are the words of wisdom regarding trading consolidating markets, at BE or better.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...on#post2876364

I suggest reading the whole post, but the meat and potatoes is below.

J16: " NO ONE HAS EVER MADE IT IN THIS BUSINESS WITHOUT SOME RELIABLE METHOD OF TRADING CONSOLIDATION AT EITHER BREAKEVEN OR BETTER."
  • #130,504
  • Apr 10, 2014 10:48am Apr 10, 2014 10:48am
I hope I have got the approach to this breakout trade right. Somebody please comment on this trade.

Thanks,

Neytiri
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  • #130,505
  • Apr 10, 2014 10:56am Apr 10, 2014 10:56am
Quoting Neytiri
I hope I have got the approach to this breakout trade right. Somebody please comment on this trade. Thanks, Neytiri {image} {image}
I think it's a very risky one you just got here, but that's just my thought on the M5 pinbar.
I think there are too many H4 bars to do a touch-entry/M5, but some might argue this.

W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #130,506
  • Apr 10, 2014 11:02am Apr 10, 2014 11:02am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} I think it's a very risky one you just got here, but that's just my thought on the M5 pinbar. I think there are too many H4 bars to do a touch-entry/M5, but some might argue this. W
yes be careful

a few things about this type of thing. The breakout area that you are trying to trade has already created a breakout back around march 18. This is no longer a breakout type trade. Instead this is price just coming back to a previous area of s/r. Trying to use a m5 pinbar to get in is VERY tricky and really to disconnected from this area in my view.

Really in a case like this the m5 should be viewed by itself if anything. It did hit it's FTA as it is a solid pinbar, but it is also against a steep down move. So after the FTA i'd be out or at b/e if you really had to play this. Don't depend on that previous small breakout box to hold you up for a long time(at least past that FTA)

When playing a breakout(like the box you showed) it's much easier and more potential when you are right near the pattern, not when price comes back to a small pattern much much later

Hope this makes sense

Mike
  • #130,507
  • Apr 10, 2014 6:23pm Apr 10, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} I think it's a very risky one you just got here, but that's just my thought on the M5 pinbar. I think there are too many H4 bars to do a touch-entry/M5, but some might argue this. W
additionally. if you look h4 TF. you should use h1 for trigger.

for example daily TF is trigger of weekly TF.
  • #130,508
  • Apr 10, 2014 7:15pm Apr 10, 2014 7:15pm
Quoting P.Action
{quote} additionally. if you look h4 TF. you should use h1 for trigger. for example daily TF is trigger of weekly TF.
You make a valid point in keeping your TF's close if your using multi TF analysis however, I've seen people using various methods of multi TF analysis.
For example the Daily with H1 triggers is a combo I've seen here often, even lower.
So I figure it's a question of style rather than what one 'should' do.

On the other hand, I've heard Mike and Phanti argue that one 'should' keep his TF's seperate, i.e. if you enter on a daily, then you watch the daily and nothing but the daily for your trade.

Maybe some seniors could shed some light on this topic.

Kind regards,
W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #130,509
  • Apr 11, 2014 3:13am Apr 11, 2014 3:13am
closely watching GBPUSD @ the key level of 1.68 (check out weekly time frame too)
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  • #130,510
  • Apr 11, 2014 3:25am Apr 11, 2014 3:25am
My last six trades... trying to keep it simple...
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  • #130,511
  • Apr 11, 2014 5:07am Apr 11, 2014 5:07am
Quoting michal7
My last six trades... trying to keep it simple...
Great trades michal.
  • #130,512
  • Apr 11, 2014 5:10am Apr 11, 2014 5:10am
A trade am still in
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  • #130,513
  • Apr 11, 2014 5:13am Apr 11, 2014 5:13am
Quoting michal7
My last six trades... trying to keep it simple... {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Nice clean charts Michal!

I especially liked the EURNZD pinbar as it touches and rejects it's former consolidation as well as the brn. clean, simple, picture perfect pin.

If you keep those result up, you'll have a very good change of making it to respectable heights in the FF TradeExplorer top 100 (live).

Good luck on your further journey!

W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #130,514
  • Apr 11, 2014 5:54am Apr 11, 2014 5:54am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} Nice clean charts Michal! I especially liked the EURNZD pinbar as it touches and rejects it's former consolidation as well as the brn. clean, simple, picture perfect pin. If you keep those result up, you'll have a very good change of making it to respectable heights in the FF TradeExplorer top 100 (live). Good luck on your further journey! W
Thanks Donaciello,
I tried to simplify my trading further so I got rid of moving averages and fibonaccis. Ended up with black&white candlesticks and horizonal support/resistance lines and few trendlines.

Please note that my Trade explorer results are skewed as I keep only 20% of my trading capital in my trading account. So whatever percentage you see there you need to divide it by 5 to get real number. So right now my real account is up about 2,75% since 10th March( when I started with adjusted strategy).
This is while risking 0.5% of trading capital per trade. I am continuosly increasing my risk with a plan to reach risk between 1% and 1.5% per trade, depending on what my win rate will be.
But reason I put up Trade explorer here is that people can check my exact entries and exits when I post a chart.

Cheers,
Michal
  • #130,515
  • Apr 11, 2014 6:48am Apr 11, 2014 6:48am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} You make a valid point in keeping your TF's close if your using multi TF analysis however, I've seen people using various methods of multi TF analysis. For example the Daily with H1 triggers is a combo I've seen here often, even lower. So I figure it's a question of style rather than what one 'should' do. On the other hand, I've heard Mike and Phanti argue that one 'should' keep his TF's seperate, i.e. if you enter on a daily, then you watch the daily and nothing but the daily for your trade. Maybe some seniors could shed some light on this...
i agree bro. if we are daily we should trade daily. addition to this. i just get noticed that we should know global position of price.
  • #130,516
  • Apr 11, 2014 7:54am Apr 11, 2014 7:54am
Quoting michal7
My last six trades...

Nice trade Michal..
i actually took most of those trades.... except the GBP/USD and AUD/CHF.
some of them i am still in (like EJ)
others i am kicking myself for exiting too early (CADJPY)

i am glad i share similar thinking with you in some trading analysis.

regards,
Dinta
  • #130,517
  • Edited 8:07am Apr 11, 2014 7:56am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting P.Action
{quote}(...) we should know global position of price.
What do you mean by this?


Quoting michal7
{quote}(..) This is while risking 0.5% of trading capital per trade. I am continuosly increasing my risk with a plan to reach risk between 1% and 1.5% per trade, depending on what my win rate will be.
Do you link an arbitrary %/capital to various domains of winrate?
Would you care to elaborate on how arbitrary the two are for you?
Meaning, do you keep a separate balance sheet besides your 'brokerage-balance', or do you calculate a percentage of your equity when entering a position?
By "how arbitrary is your win rate?" I wonder how you would account for the event that a trade closed in BE-swap, as this may come out in your trade explorer as a losing trade, but should clearly be regarded as winner "Keeping your BE's in the winner's column. - J16 classic -

I'm very interested in this, as I too work with an arbitrary risk-% on balance, but I've disconnected my balance from immediate operations, by keeping a separate 'P/L-account', where about 5 positions at a time are layed to rest, before I gradually 'write off' both winners & losers, thus severely decreasing volatility on the account-balance over which risk is calculated.

W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #130,518
  • Apr 11, 2014 8:20am Apr 11, 2014 8:20am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} What do you mean by this? {quote} Do you link an arbitrary %/capital to various domains of winrate? Would you care to elaborate on how arbitrary the two are for you? Meaning, do you keep a separate balance sheet besides your 'brokerage-balance', or do you calculate a percentage of your equity when entering a position? By "how arbitrary is your win rate?" I wonder how you would account for the event that a trade closed in BE-swap, as this may come out in your trade explorer as a losing trade, but should clearly be regarded as winner "Keeping...
What I do is very simple.
Let's say my trading capital would be 1 000 000 EUR(it's not, unfortunately, it's just few thousands)
I keep 80% of this in my bank so it would be 800 000 EUR.
20% would be in my broker account so it would be 200 000 EUR.
Reason I do this is that I don't like to send all my savings to broker. So I use leverage.

I risk 0,5% of my whole trading capital per trade so that would be 5000 EUR. -1R means -5000 EUR; +1,5R means + 7500 EUR.

What I meant by "I am continuosly increasing my risk with a plan to reach risk between 1% and 1.5% per trade, depending on what my win rate will be" is that I started with risking 0,5%(of whole trading capital) per trade. Now I have increased risk to 0,75%(of whole trading capital) as it's going well. If my trading will go well further I will increase my risk to 1%. I'm watching my win rate and number of consecutive losses. If my trading will still go well and I see that I do not take many losses in a row I might end up risking 1.5%(of whole trading capital) per trade. Not sure I'd increase my risk further later as e.g. with 2% risk you can lose 10% of your account with just 5 bad trades.

Hope it's clear.
  • #130,519
  • Edited 9:53am Apr 11, 2014 8:40am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting michal7
{quote} What I do is very simple. Let's say my trading capital would be 1 000 000 EUR(it's not, unfortunately, it's just few thousands) I keep 80% of this in my bank so it would be 800 000 EUR. 20% would be in my broker account so it would be 200 000 EUR. Reason I do this is that I don't like to send all my savings to broker. So I use leverage. I risk 0,5% of my whole trading capital per trade so that would be 5000 EUR. -1R means -5000 EUR; +1,5R means + 7500 EUR. What I meant by "I am continuosly increasing my risk with a plan to reach risk between...
Thanks for the detailed coverage!

I've been pondering the ratio of deposit vs. capital at large but as I'm trading exclusively demo so far, there's been no concrete decisions on this.
My memory tells me it's DeanKenny21 who's contributions initially illuminated my understanding of money management in 'leveraged speculation'.
He too used the approach of keeping the biggest chuck of your assets in your own bank.
I think this is only logical and I'll definitely go deeper into this before I ever choose to trade live.
What I remember most about his post is what he mentioned about 'being your own bank'.
Note that it's been a while since I read about that, so I'm not even sure if it were Dean's posts, so credit could be due elsewhere.


Now, this 'Being your own bank' sparked the creativity within myself.
I've had plenty of time playing with spreadsheet calculations and well, you probably remember the days...

I came up with an approach that resembles investments or 'loans' that can be granted to yourself, with strict mechanical execution.
It is however linked to my personal style of accounting my Wins/Losses to the balance, with the 'write-off' I meantioned earlier.
The investments themselves are basically just the first 31 'generations' in the fibonacci sequence.

Here's the document, FWIW.

Attached File(s)
File Type: txt Generations.txt   7 KB | 384 downloads


Kind regards,
W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #130,520
  • Apr 11, 2014 10:23am Apr 11, 2014 10:23am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} What do you mean by this? {quote} Do you link an arbitrary %/capital to various domains of winrate? Would you care to elaborate on how arbitrary the two are for you? Meaning, do you keep a separate balance sheet besides your 'brokerage-balance', or do you calculate a percentage of your equity when entering a position? By "how arbitrary is your win rate?" I wonder how you would account for the event that a trade closed in BE-swap, as this may come out in your trade explorer as a losing trade, but should clearly be regarded as winner "Keeping...

for example if you trade daily. and you plan to enter position. check weekly(and monthly) where is that current level. maybe next res.(or support) is too close. etc.
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