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AUD/USD

  • #76,201
  • Apr 10, 2014 2:28am Apr 10, 2014 2:28am
Quoting zOrO2kX
There are NO fundamentals or technicals for this AUD and NZD strength (Australia wants the AUD low for economy growth). Weekly TF still in downtrend. Short positions: 0.90100 0.92700 0.94970 <pending I also have other positions on GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD and NZD/USD.
HuH?

Fundi's ... AUD has good employment, deficit, foreign demand, etc.

Techs .. see chart .. daily ... we are above all daily MA's (and 4h ma's) and have room to run for a bit.

Techs again .. most AUD crosspairs look AUD bullish ... you 'may' be able to get out of your positions at BE soon ... but this pair has room to run north a couple hundred pips more if it wants to + consolidation.

Good luck with it, but be safe ... we are inches from breaking a previous daily high ... (about 3 pips away) ... if we get above there, we can easily see .95
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  • #76,202
  • Apr 10, 2014 2:29am Apr 10, 2014 2:29am
Quoting mrluckystar
{quote} Yeah ken... usd weeken.... EU n AU shooting up... reason for EA n GA stalling...Btw ken, looking at daily chart, do u think retrace is nearby?
For A/U key level for me is .95 if didn't hold then more upside. With FOMC in the mix is not easy to predict the move.

E/A is more downside and immediate target for me is X

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  • #76,203
  • Apr 10, 2014 2:32am Apr 10, 2014 2:32am
can we really really sell AU tomorrow?
  • #76,204
  • Apr 10, 2014 2:57am Apr 10, 2014 2:57am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} For A/U key level for me is .95 if didn't hold then more upside. With FOMC in the mix is not easy to predict the move. E/A is more downside and immediate target for me is X {image}
AUD is 4 pips from latest daily high (Orange Line / .9447 on a weekly basis) .. I shorted with a stop above it (sl is .9450) ....
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  • #76,205
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:07am Apr 10, 2014 3:07am
I see price action getting tired near .9480. Almost 500 pips in less than a month, more than 250 pips in six days. Massively overbought. I wouldn't short here, but .950ish makes since.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #76,206
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:08am Apr 10, 2014 3:08am
0.9450 taken out with so much ease and no effort.

is there any resistance in forex when the pairs really move, this is why support and resistance is just a concept at best.
  • #76,207
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:09am Apr 10, 2014 3:09am
lets see what weekly ichimoku can do lol
but no doubts best shorting is near to 0.9490-0.9510
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Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #76,208
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:11am Apr 10, 2014 3:11am
going vertical now on a 1 minute chart. this thing is truly a bubble in full flight.
  • #76,209
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:14am Apr 10, 2014 3:14am
Quoting Halba
going vertical now on a 1 minute chart. this thing is truly a bubble in full flight.
How is it a bubble?

good employment, good trade data, etc. Aud bonds are in demand so world wide, entities are buying up AUD to have a piece of the AUD bond demand.

There maybe a bubble outside of Australia (china, us, etc) that one day (a year, decade, 5 decades?) may pop a bubble and that would drive down demand for Aud exports which would devalue the AUD ... but I don't think that the AUD is a bubble ... it can run upto .96, .97, .98 by summer time.
  • #76,210
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:14am Apr 10, 2014 3:14am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} AUD is 4 pips from latest daily high (Orange Line / .9447 on a weekly basis) .. I shorted with a stop above it (sl is .9450) .... {image} {image}
stopped.
  • #76,211
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:20am Apr 10, 2014 3:20am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} How is it a bubble? good employment, good trade data, etc. Aud bonds are in demand so world wide, entities are buying up AUD to have a piece of the AUD bond demand. There maybe a bubble outside of Australia (china, us, etc) that one day (a year, decade, 5 decades?) may pop a bubble and that would drive down demand for Aud exports which would devalue the AUD ... but I don't think that the AUD is a bubble ... it can run upto .96, .97, .98 by summer time.
anything that moves at that kind of pace is a bubble. theres nothing much that can change exchange rate 6% in just 1 month. thats such a huge fast move. AUD is a much smaller narrow based economy than USD.
  • #76,212
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:33am Apr 10, 2014 3:33am
Quoting Halba
out of control overbought. it was massively up before that 'news'.
I don't understand how some of you can come to the conclusion that this currency is overbought, simply because it moved up a couple hundred pips. Look back to the past, it has made it above parity twice in the past. Why should now be any different? Fundamentally, it should probably be argued that it could go even beyond the highest high. The US has been printing mad money, have the Australians? Are the Australians printing the relative equivalent in AUD to balance the pot? I don't think so. Saying it's overbought is the height of ignorance.
  • #76,213
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:33am Apr 10, 2014 3:33am
Quoting chazzle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7Ha...UhvwDDFtY4PBPQ
This isn't reddit. Stop it.
  • #76,214
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:33am Apr 10, 2014 3:33am
Quoting Halba
{quote} anything that moves at that kind of pace is a bubble. theres nothing much that can change exchange rate 6% in just 1 month. thats such a huge fast move. AUD is a much smaller narrow based economy than USD.
What does the size of the economy have to do with the exchange rate?

when a currency, like any object, is in demand, it will cost more. simple as that.

EVERY currency has had 5% monthly moves before, and they will all continue to do so. can't look at it on a monthly basis ... and it was the same speed movements when it was moving down from 1.xx

I personally am not shorting AUD any time soon ... I have been looking for NZD shorts for a correction, but I am ultimately buying it while above .8050
  • #76,215
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:34am Apr 10, 2014 3:34am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} HuH? Fundi's ... AUD has good employment, deficit, foreign demand, etc. Techs .. see chart .. daily ... we are above all daily MA's (and 4h ma's) and have room to run for a bit. Techs again .. most AUD crosspairs look AUD bullish ... you 'may' be able to get out of your positions at BE soon ... but this pair has room to run north a couple hundred pips more if it wants to + consolidation. Good luck with it, but be safe ... we are inches from breaking a previous daily high ... (about 3 pips away) ... if we get above there, we can easily see...
That chart looks like two huge sagging tits to me. Perfect double bottom, long term too. This keeps up, and holds above .95, the sky's the limit I say.
  • #76,216
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:36am Apr 10, 2014 3:36am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} How is it a bubble? good employment, good trade data, etc. Aud bonds are in demand so world wide, entities are buying up AUD to have a piece of the AUD bond demand. There maybe a bubble outside of Australia (china, us, etc) that one day (a year, decade, 5 decades?) may pop a bubble and that would drive down demand for Aud exports which would devalue the AUD ... but I don't think that the AUD is a bubble ... it can run upto .96, .97, .98 by summer time.
Everything is rosy then why are you selling? contradicting your own conviction.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #76,217
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:37am Apr 10, 2014 3:37am
Quoting Halba
{quote} anything that moves at that kind of pace is a bubble. theres nothing much that can change exchange rate 6% in just 1 month. thats such a huge fast move. AUD is a much smaller narrow based economy than USD.
That's not a bubble. It's merely reflection of intense demand. A bubble is unsustainable. This has been proven to be sustainable, this price point and well above it.
  • #76,218
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:37am Apr 10, 2014 3:37am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} stopped.
I thought you just wrote you are not shorting?
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #76,219
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:38am Apr 10, 2014 3:38am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} What does the size of the economy have to do with the exchange rate? when a currency, like any object, is in demand, it will cost more. simple as that. EVERY currency has had 5% monthly moves before, and they will all continue to do so. can't look at it on a monthly basis ... and it was the same speed movements when it was moving down from 1.xx I personally am not shorting AUD any time soon ... I have been looking for NZD shorts for a correction, but I am ultimately buying it while above .8050

you have 186 posts most are extreme numbers.Just calm down dude.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #76,220
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:49am Apr 10, 2014 3:49am
Quoting Davit
{quote} you have 186 posts most are extreme numbers.Just calm down dude.
Hi Davit, NU up to the moon..
i closed my short in red..
how about you??
keep holding short?
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