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NZD/USD

  • #4,381
  • Apr 9, 2014 5:47pm Apr 9, 2014 5:47pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
If the RBNZ does another rate hike and increases the OCR this will go up further won't it?..

Also depends on the counter currency ... if AUD, for example, started raising rates ... that wouldn't allow AUDNZD to rally as much for the NZD ..

If USD rates are kept low, then it will see the highs and probably beyond (I think we are seeing parity in the long run) .. and if Europe does do a form of QE, EURNZD could collapse quite a bit.
  • #4,382
  • Apr 9, 2014 6:24pm Apr 9, 2014 6:24pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Also depends on the counter currency ... if AUD, for example, started raising rates ... that wouldn't allow AUDNZD to rally as much for the NZD .. If USD rates are kept low, then it will see the highs and probably beyond (I think we are seeing parity in the long run) .. and if Europe does do a form of QE, EURNZD could collapse quite a bit.
Thanks, good points made there.
  • #4,383
  • Apr 9, 2014 7:36pm Apr 9, 2014 7:36pm
One way traffic with little hint to halt or reverse
  • #4,384
  • Apr 9, 2014 7:49pm Apr 9, 2014 7:49pm
In a new report released overnight by the IMF, New Zealand is far and away in the best shape of the 25 advanced nations surveyed for the gross public financing needs over the next three years (see table 1.5).
The IMF says we will have the biggest surplus by 2016 and the least need for new debt (on a % of GDP basis).



sorry about this, was trying to copy and paste from an article.
  • #4,385
  • Apr 9, 2014 8:01pm Apr 9, 2014 8:01pm
looks in bubble just like the stockmarket

5 days in a row
up over 2 cents

unprecedented growth in 'carry' type assets. must be nearing a top, but it plunges through any tops with ease.
  • #4,386
  • Apr 9, 2014 8:09pm Apr 9, 2014 8:09pm
Looks like there is not much resistance to stop this pair from seeing 8837 area IMO..clear air all the way up..
July 2011 all time high.. lots of shorts loading up ..
  • #4,387
  • Apr 9, 2014 9:09pm Apr 9, 2014 9:09pm
where is everyone, it's topping isn't it?
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #4,388
  • Apr 9, 2014 9:13pm Apr 9, 2014 9:13pm
Quoting skyhok
where is everyone, it's topping isn't it?
I reentered short, stop at .8755,

I will be more confident in a good retrace and hold short if we break below .8645 without bouncing.
  • #4,389
  • Apr 9, 2014 9:17pm Apr 9, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I reentered short, stop at .8755, I will be more confident in a good retrace and hold short if we break below .8645 without bouncing.
I like it that way.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #4,390
  • Apr 9, 2014 9:40pm Apr 9, 2014 9:40pm
alright that was the top straight to hell.
  • #4,391
  • Apr 9, 2014 10:46pm Apr 9, 2014 10:46pm
That's very much like an impulse wave down so far, a change of mode from the corrective of the last .... many months.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #4,392
  • Apr 9, 2014 10:50pm Apr 9, 2014 10:50pm
Quoting strat1x
alright that was the top straight to hell.

Only can hope.. Many of us have said that many times. hahaha
  • #4,393
  • Apr 9, 2014 11:21pm Apr 9, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting skyhok
That's very much like an impulse wave down so far, a change of mode from the corrective of the last .... many months.
Bad trade numbers out of China. Asia isn't reacting. If aud and nzd aren't sold on Europe or US open, than it isn't going down. I am expecting at least a minor selloff .... so I am still short and added a little bit more at .8722 (average is .8730).

summary - watch for europe and us to react to chinese trade data, unlike Asia
  • #4,394
  • Apr 9, 2014 11:49pm Apr 9, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Bad trade numbers out of China. Asia isn't reacting. If aud and nzd aren't sold on Europe or US open, than it isn't going down. I am expecting at least a minor selloff .... so I am still short and added a little bit more at .8722 (average is .8730). summary - watch for europe and us to react to chinese trade data, unlike Asia
Good one.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #4,395
  • Apr 10, 2014 12:07am Apr 10, 2014 12:07am
Quoting jaws810
Yes, over leveraged trades hurt when they go bad, but they're nice when they go right. I'll take a nice ride up to 87 whenever the market's ready to stop kicking my butt. Good news I still haven't lost all of last month's gains.
It was such a nice ride back up to 87 that I stayed on till 8735, getting back all my losses and a nice profit. I love green pips. I'll be looking for some more after NY open.
  • #4,396
  • Apr 10, 2014 12:15am Apr 10, 2014 12:15am
naturally, good things take time. surely there would be dips. It's just that my take on dips - is buying opportunity.
Not trying to short the imaginery top of the uptrend. NU top is not in yet!
  • #4,397
  • Apr 10, 2014 1:10am Apr 10, 2014 1:10am
Quoting ruffryders
naturally, good things take time. surely there would be dips. It's just that my take on dips - is buying opportunity. Not trying to short the imaginery top of the uptrend. NU top is not in yet!
dippers on GU will be bought up today @ 6730-60 area, which in turn will send NUs higher still.
  • #4,398
  • Apr 10, 2014 1:38am Apr 10, 2014 1:38am
NU shorters, c'mon guys, get over it, get some beef steak pepper pies, and just flip your possies and enjoy the smooth ride.

Aotearoa, let's go G!
  • #4,399
  • Apr 10, 2014 1:43am Apr 10, 2014 1:43am
china trade balance, blah blah, well, why then no reaction and follow through in Gold for instance?
because XAU got into strong demand zone, which is supported by the TL and also 50% fib of a big previous swing.

why is UCAD still going down then if commods are screwed ?
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  • #4,400
  • Apr 10, 2014 1:47am Apr 10, 2014 1:47am
bears already looking for a hiding spot.
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