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NZD/USD

  • #4,361
  • Apr 9, 2014 2:40pm Apr 9, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting ruffryders
after nu took out 8700 psycho level with decisive price action , i can't recommend that anybody shorts this pair, until it makes any indication of topping action. repeat, short sell on your own risk. currently, weekly chart indicate a major harmonic pattern in the making. Prz is @ 8840-8880 area. That's where we start looking for signs of weakness and try to short sell. Until then - buy dips! Don't sell this train is still enroute. {image}
this pattern is set to complete (reach PRZ) in May 2014.
  • #4,362
  • Apr 9, 2014 2:43pm Apr 9, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} this pattern is set to complete (reach PRZ) in May 2014.
And if a long is currently under water, just keep calm and collect more swag! (p)
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #4,363
  • Apr 9, 2014 3:16pm Apr 9, 2014 3:16pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} this pattern is set to complete (reach PRZ) in May 2014.
just bought 15 mln NUs.
  • #4,364
  • Apr 9, 2014 3:31pm Apr 9, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} just bought 15 mln NUs.
why the **** would I scale in @ new highs? Cause I like that yummy PB on D1 at previous resistance zone.
Now support turns res, I like that.
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  • #4,365
  • Apr 9, 2014 3:36pm Apr 9, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} why the **** would I scale in @ new highs? Cause I like that yummy PB on D1 at previous resistance zone. Now support turns res, I like that. {image}
monthly looks good too currently. well above previous resistances.
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  • #4,366
  • Apr 9, 2014 3:40pm Apr 9, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} monthly looks good too currently. well above previous resistances. {image}
also updated the EW analysis of the NU. Standalone, not much value add, however when there's confluence with other techs, it's a good one.
Attached Image
  • #4,367
  • Apr 9, 2014 3:51pm Apr 9, 2014 3:51pm
80% of retailers are short on this pair as well its gonna go up. like i said 0.88 and then straight to hell.
  • #4,368
  • Apr 9, 2014 3:55pm Apr 9, 2014 3:55pm
Quoting strat1x
80% of retailers are short on this pair as well its gonna go up. like i said 0.88 and then straight to hell.
yeah, although not 8800, but 8860-8900 more like it.
  • #4,369
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:06pm Apr 9, 2014 4:06pm
my opinions change because of this view. never short, looking another pairs.

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  • #4,370
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:07pm Apr 9, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} why the **** would I scale in @ new highs? Cause I like that yummy PB on D1 at previous resistance zone. Now support turns res, I like that. {image}
Dont think its a great idea to be price chasing especially when you are 60 pips away from all time highs.
  • #4,371
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:08pm Apr 9, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} yeah, although not 8800, but 8860-8900 more like it.
maybe 1 AUD = 1 NZD :nerd:
  • #4,372
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:11pm Apr 9, 2014 4:11pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Dont think its a great idea to be price chasing especially when you are 60 pips away from all time highs.
well, find out soon, but I've done my due dill, and my take is that we are moving higher. Check out GUs chart as well.
GUs taking on multi-year highs as we speak. The price action is very strong too.
  • #4,373
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:15pm Apr 9, 2014 4:15pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} why the **** would I scale in @ new highs? Cause I like that yummy PB on D1 at previous resistance zone. Now support turns res, I like that. {image}
The pinbar you have marked has a large inefficient leg run up over 30 minutes. Pinbars very often fail when price inside it has such a leg unless your willing to take the hole leg on as a stop level.
  • #4,374
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:17pm Apr 9, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} well, find out soon, but I've done my due dill, and my take is that we are moving higher. Check out GUs chart as well. GUs taking on multi-year highs as we speak. The price action is very strong too.
Not saying it wont but big risk with the leg below.

Good luck hope it works out for you.

  • #4,375
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:26pm Apr 9, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} well, find out soon, but I've done my due dill, and my take is that we are moving higher. Check out GUs chart as well. GUs taking on multi-year highs as we speak. The price action is very strong too.
for gu price must break 1.6816 if can, target will be 1.7328. other case is if monthly close below 1.6430, big down movement comes. same situations is in force for NU. so no one know how many high. time will tell. good luck to all shorters in this pair.

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  • #4,376
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:29pm Apr 9, 2014 4:29pm
This high dollar will kill our exports , and murder our tourism and slow overseas investments into NZ . Just want it to go gown so our country doesn't stall.
  • #4,377
  • Edited 5:46pm Apr 9, 2014 4:50pm | Edited 5:46pm
My take on the kiwi.

We are 90 odd pips away from all time high run up with a lot of inefficient moves below at least down to the 9170 area. We are still 2 weeks out from next rate decision which is anticipated to remain the same. I think unless we have another rate hike in 2 weeks time the probability that we will break the all time high is low probability. Most probably we will have a retrace or a range. Either way I believe the best probability play is short with SL safe margin above the all time high initially.

Safe trading which ever way you trade
  • #4,378
  • Apr 9, 2014 5:13pm Apr 9, 2014 5:13pm
Sorry squawk but I think all time high is over .88 back last year in march I think, and I think most people believe the RBNZ will raise the interest rates.
  • #4,379
  • Apr 9, 2014 5:41pm Apr 9, 2014 5:41pm
If the RBNZ does another rate hike and increases the OCR this will go up further won't it?..
  • #4,380
  • Apr 9, 2014 5:45pm Apr 9, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting zen252
Sorry squawk but I think all time high is over .88 back last year in march I think, and I think most people believe the RBNZ will raise the interest rates.
Hi Zen, slightly more that 60. I meant to type in 90. Thanks.

Re increase - will wait and see but not trading based on the decision more the time frame until this happens. If it does raise 25 points that will be 50 over the last two with the expectation of 2 over the coming 2 years you would expect them to put on short hold if they do raise this time which may lead to a quick spike then a fall after the decision.

Good luck to you. Thanks again....

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