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Confused

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 14, 2006 8:00am Jul 14, 2006 8:00am
I'm confused - why is the dollar stengthening with retail sales quite a bit lower than expected????
  • #2
  • Jul 14, 2006 8:12am Jul 14, 2006 8:12am
PMurfin because it can? The market moves in mysterious ways. Get used to it. If it was that predictable everyone would be getting rich off it.
  • #3
  • Jul 14, 2006 8:33am Jul 14, 2006 8:33am
Bit of a harsh reply but i'm happy to take it - after my first 3 months day trading $1 a pip i'm down $6 ! Another educational day for me - i'll graduate at some point ! i guess as Joe Ross says ... 'trade what you see not what you think!'
  • #4
  • Jul 14, 2006 8:38am Jul 14, 2006 8:38am
i dont think its beacuse it can!...these days that statement doesnt count....days like these with geopolitical tension going out of control market is very aware!!! usd is stronger across the board because of ss fe haven buying ...mid east tension seems to make players want to be long usd and the rise of oil is another factor.... also euro statements during the day by ECB officials were dovish....that is euro negative....


but mainly market is nervous these days and the more rockets being fired the more nervous they get hence the choppy and unpredictable moves....
  • #5
  • Jul 14, 2006 8:59am Jul 14, 2006 8:59am
BUt MIdeast tension is usually dollar negative not dollar positive. The CHF usually benefit from tensions. Gold is going and the USD is going up. This is not common. They usually go in opposite direction.

Quoting lindamartinfx
i dont think its beacuse it can!...these days that statement doesnt count....days like these with geopolitical tension going out of control market is very aware!!! usd is stronger across the board because of ss fe haven buying ...mid east tension seems to make players want to be long usd and the rise of oil is another factor.... also euro statements during the day by ECB officials were dovish....that is euro negative....


but mainly market is nervous these days and the more rockets being fired the more nervous they get hence the choppy and unpredictable moves....
  • #6
  • Jul 14, 2006 9:18am Jul 14, 2006 9:18am
USD selloff is pending, maybe we will se it next week or late in the trading session.
  • #7
  • Jul 14, 2006 9:28am Jul 14, 2006 9:28am
Hi Yardie,

Do you think that with gold being back to 660+, and oil being as high as it is, that this will eventually catch up with the USD, thus ending it's rally and starting to weaken it?


Quoting Yardie
BUt MIdeast tension is usually dollar negative not dollar positive. The CHF usually benefit from tensions. Gold is going and the USD is going up. This is not common. They usually go in opposite direction.
  • #8
  • Jul 14, 2006 9:32am Jul 14, 2006 9:32am
It is hard to say. The market doesnt appear to be following fundamentals these days. Look at the Yen. The pairs are backup where they started the week even with a BOJ raise of interest rates for the first time in 6 years.



Quoting 4x4tx
Hi Yardie,

Do you think that with gold being back to 660+, and oil being as high as it is, that this will eventually catch up with the USD, thus ending it's rally and starting to weaken it?
  • #9
  • Jul 14, 2006 9:38am Jul 14, 2006 9:38am
I was a bit surprised to see, especially the gbp/jpy as high as it was. I was expecting to see the pair lower this morning. Unless the expected rate hike was already priced in, making the 0.25% rate hike a non-event. Higher oil prices though, has a negative effect on the Yen. Maybe that is why the Yen has been weak today.



Quoting Yardie
It is hard to say. The market doesnt appear to be following fundamentals these days. Look at the Yen. The pairs are backup where they started the week even with a BOJ raise of interest rates for the first time in 6 years.
  • #10
  • Jul 14, 2006 10:33am Jul 14, 2006 10:33am
Quoting Yardie
BUt MIdeast tension is usually dollar negative not dollar positive. The CHF usually benefit from tensions. Gold is going and the USD is going up. This is not common. They usually go in opposite direction.
i totally agree with u on that one...usually that was what happened...and with Iran tension since the beggining of it that was the case...however since the Nkorea crisis the currency that mostly benefited through that was usd and not chf...and since then all the Mid East tension seem to be dollar positive....especially on jpy as dont forget their risks on oil is even more as they only depend on middle east for it...

now untill when? we have to see...maybe next week we shall see weakness on usd again especially as CPI and PPI is released....

but one thing is for sure, when there is tension and geopolitical risks about, market is indeed nervous and alot of times u cannot explain the unexplained....
  • #11
  • Jul 14, 2006 3:55pm Jul 14, 2006 3:55pm
I'm new to Forex and the board (although I've been lurking for a while). I'd like to get your opinions on this perenial discussion of technical indicators vs. fundamental elements. I personally have a background in math and have found some of the technical stuff quite interesting but I'm not too much into intra-day trading since I also have a job.

On July 13, I saw a very strong and robust signal to enter long for the Yen. I would have entered the trade had I not been wary of the BOJ announcement. In retrospect, I wonder if fundamentals to us individual, small traders should really carry so much weight. What we know, by the time we know, is probably no longer a trend setting worthy piece of news. Any speculation, by the time we have reasons to corroborate, is probably already factored into the trend by the institutional players. If there's high uncertainty on an impending announcement, I believe such will also be reflected by the charts as prices await a break.

So, I'm thinking that it seems worrying too much about fundamentals (when the news is not really news) and disregarding a strong technical sign would be an impediment to profitable trading?
  • #12
  • Last Post: Jul 15, 2006 1:16am Jul 15, 2006 1:16am
Hi Guys,

I am new to the forums but have been trading for about 4 years now with a good mix of fundamentals and technicals.

Regarding the USD/JPY - When you look at what the BOJ rate did, i think its important to look back and see what has the JPY been doing since speculation of a rate hike. USD has been consistently losing ground against the JPY for the past 2 weeks or so. This is because market had already factored in a BOJ rate hike and they wanted to see the tone of the BOJ governor to provide next direction. Most traders (including myself) who factor in fundamentals first and then use technicals to provide proof, believed strongly that the governor would come out dovish because of obvious reasons and so he did. As such the market got its direction of favoring USD in the short term. Most of the forums/newsletters i read suggested going Short before the BOJ news release.
Because of my theory above, i went LONG at 115.20 before the news release.

Regards,
Girish
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