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NZD/USD

  • #4,161
  • Apr 7, 2014 1:27am Apr 7, 2014 1:27am
Quoting Davit
Funny whenever price makes a High we have entire group of people predicting ultimate numbers. GU when at 68 were calling 71-73 EU at 1.38 already screaming 1.41-43 Both scenarios did not materialize... This is understandably most often expected from new traders.Just becouse price did reach those numbers does not mean it will again.In case of NU since 2008 crash price reached 88 only once! even when it did in 2011 EU was trading 1.48 and AU 1.10 take that in perspective...
100% agree with you
  • #4,162
  • Apr 7, 2014 1:37am Apr 7, 2014 1:37am
a dynamic system is always looking for new equilibrium

just maybe .....

Quoting Davit
Funny whenever price makes a High we have entire group of people predicting ultimate numbers. GU when at 68 were calling 71-73 EU at 1.38 already screaming 1.41-43 Both scenarios did not materialize... This is understandably most often expected from new traders.Just becouse price did reach those numbers does not mean it will again.In case of NU since 2008 crash price reached 88 only once! even when it did in 2011 EU was trading 1.48 and AU 1.10 take that in perspective...
Attached Image
not euphoria follower
  • #4,163
  • Apr 7, 2014 1:42am Apr 7, 2014 1:42am
Just a matter of time... patience.... we might not hold underwater position same as you Davit, we trade what we see and of course my view for monthly will reach .92xx as ultimate target AB=CD and butterfly sell 161.8 also suggest that numbers.

and, just put my SL to BE ... nothing to loose...

Play safe
Equities open and promptly sell off
  • #4,164
  • Apr 7, 2014 4:22am Apr 7, 2014 4:22am
I see some bears coming, hope it will last <3
  • #4,165
  • Apr 7, 2014 4:39am Apr 7, 2014 4:39am
I seriosly think that a strong bear trend will start in few days.
First at all, looking montly chart we are near to a top High pivot point.
Secondly it seems that a "Head and Shoulders" picture is becoming more and more evident.
I have placed 3 sell limit order with entry point at 0.8636
general SL: 0.8650
TP 1 : 0.8572
TP 2: 0.5420
TP 3: 0.8327
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  • #4,166
  • Apr 7, 2014 5:34am Apr 7, 2014 5:34am
looking to short the NZD with a long on the EUR/NZD.
Waiting on the close of the current 4hr TF. If bearish kiwi then Im long EUR/NZD
  • #4,167
  • Apr 7, 2014 5:39am Apr 7, 2014 5:39am
H4 confirms H&S forming... pointing south!
  • #4,168
  • Apr 7, 2014 5:57am Apr 7, 2014 5:57am
Quoting shripsfx
looking to short the NZD with a long on the EUR/NZD. Waiting on the close of the current 4hr TF. If bearish kiwi then Im long EUR/NZD
I'm on EURNZD already. U know what? U are the first trader I come across having a direction on EURNZD. Others've seen following chart but not interested.
U may have a different view, which I would appreciate.

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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #4,169
  • Apr 7, 2014 6:09am Apr 7, 2014 6:09am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} I'm on EURNZD already. U know what? U are the first trader I come across having a direction on EURNZD. Others've seen following chart but not interested. U may have a different view, which I would appreciate. {image}
Yes I believe the low was formed at 1.5760 on 28/3 which forms a longer term inverse H&S ont weekly/monthly TF.

Targets are 1.70 and then 1.77

My entry will be soon if H4 closes bearish on the kiwi, which it looks like doing
  • #4,170
  • Apr 7, 2014 6:13am Apr 7, 2014 6:13am
Quoting shripsfx
{quote} Yes I believe the low was formed at 1.5760 on 28/3 which forms a longer term inverse H&S ont weekly/monthly TF. Targets are 1.70 and then 1.77 My entry will be soon if H4 closes bearish on the kiwi, which it looks like doing
I'm with U.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #4,171
  • Apr 7, 2014 8:21am Apr 7, 2014 8:21am
Quoting shripsfx
{quote} Yes I believe the low was formed at 1.5760 on 28/3 which forms a longer term inverse H&S ont weekly/monthly TF. Targets are 1.70 and then 1.77 My entry will be soon if H4 closes bearish on the kiwi, which it looks like doing
Hi
Your projection of 1.70 1.77 not likely to reach.With Euro elections next month anticipate sharp weakening of Euro cross all pairs.
Take your profit when its reasonable
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,172
  • Apr 7, 2014 9:19am Apr 7, 2014 9:19am
Quoting shripsfx
{quote} Yes I believe the low was formed at 1.5760 on 28/3 which forms a longer term inverse H&S ont weekly/monthly TF. Targets are 1.70 and then 1.77 My entry will be soon if H4 closes bearish on the kiwi, which it looks like doing
In the case that EurNzd goes bull the first target should be 1.6390 and second target will be 1.70.

However I quote Davit the main problem are the elections. This element adds too many variables.
  • #4,173
  • Edited 9:46am Apr 7, 2014 9:30am | Edited 9:46am
Speaking about Eur I seriously think that in one month it is going down.
Consider only these 2 crosses:
EurUSd and EurCad

The first one is near a long term resistence
The second has reached what, in my opinion is a third wave.

So I'm enough sure that in ShortTime the EurNnz will move up, but absolutely not until 1.70.
A great TP could be between 1.6248 and 1.6390
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  • #4,174
  • Apr 7, 2014 10:13am Apr 7, 2014 10:13am
Thanks guys great info.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #4,175
  • Apr 7, 2014 11:57am Apr 7, 2014 11:57am
sell the fucking rally on kiwi: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post7382296

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the weekly divergence rarely fail:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post7223656

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post7296487
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #4,176
  • Apr 7, 2014 2:12pm Apr 7, 2014 2:12pm
why sell something supported by a strong TL + in the strong demand zone (NCAD)?

I'd expect some follow through on NU due to this. Finally, NU strong support by the icloud on H4.
I'd be just careful, and manage the trade/exposure appropriately.
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  • #4,177
  • Apr 7, 2014 2:38pm Apr 7, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting ruffryders
why sell something supported by a strong TL + in the strong demand zone (NCAD)? I'd expect some follow through on NU due to this. Finally, NU strong support by the icloud on H4. I'd be just careful, and manage the trade/exposure appropriately. {image}
Srr guy but I think that you have not draw correctly your "support" line.

Your SL in my case is a resistance.
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  • #4,178
  • Apr 7, 2014 2:40pm Apr 7, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting ruffryders
why sell something supported by a strong TL + in the strong demand zone (NCAD)? I'd expect some follow through on NU due to this. Finally, NU strong support by the icloud on H4. I'd be just careful, and manage the trade/exposure appropriately. {image}
weekly dictate daily, and daily dictate H4. The strategy is to sell rallies and hold for long term, for weeks, not for scalp based on H4.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #4,179
  • Apr 7, 2014 3:25pm Apr 7, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} weekly dictate daily, and daily dictate H4. The strategy is to sell rallies and hold for long term, for weeks, not for scalp based on H4.

Your strategy.
  • #4,180
  • Apr 7, 2014 3:30pm Apr 7, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Your strategy.
^
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