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Long Term Analyses - EURUSD, GOLD, and S&P

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 6, 2014 3:45pm Apr 6, 2014 3:45pm
LONG TERM ANALYSES BY ENTERFX - EURUSD, GOLD and S&P:

I provide no trading calls, just unbiased long and mid term technical
analyses based on my own view and opinions. I also do this to learn more
and by that I can be held accountable for what's posted here oppose
to what the market actually does in the future.

As you know, it's a tough business and I don't know a single trader or analyst who
is right all the time. We can only predict, which is quite fascinating with this business.

I use several factors to analyze the markets, like long term cycles. I'm a strong
believer in divergence, if combined with trendlines and a clear elliot wave pattern.

I do not rely on EW alone, it has to match up with several other factors like time, trendlines,
and other indicators. Fibonacci is also very useful if combined with support and resistance levels.

What's certain is that I WILL be wrong from time to time, but right now I'm
seeing some decent patterns that may pan out quite soon. Lets do some
estimated analyses and then let the market tell us the patch soon enough :-).

Hope you enjoy.

- Oddvin
  • #2
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:46pm Apr 6, 2014 3:46pm
EURUSD Weekly - Soon to set off a solid trend:


My prediction is that we are in the very late stage of this long lasting flag pattern
that started in July 2012.

It's now been 88 weeks and lately price seem to go nowhere as it has become more and more
choppy in a tighter and tigther trading range. I, (like many others) have been scratching
heads about the recent months price action but I think there is a good reason for this
choppiness as explained below and on the chart.

We are now at the same price level as we were in October and Desember through February,
but it wont last for much longer because it will soon catapult and release the energy
it's been building over the past few months.

Some people think it will break to the upside since it's made new highs and higher lows.
They may be right but in my opinion there's a clear pattern that tells me the EURUSD will
break down in a massive trend to come.

Unless it's already done to the upside and breaks down hard from current levels, I think we
could see a final leg towards the 1.40 level to conclude a big ending diagonal.


WEEKLY CHART

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  • #3
  • Edited 4:00pm Apr 6, 2014 3:46pm | Edited 4:00pm
GOLD XAU/USD -- Weekly and monthly analyses

There's been plenty of calls that gold has made a bottom and the trend has resumed to the upside.
I find some missing pieces in the long term picture for this to be the case. While it remains to
see over the next few weeks, I think we are heading sidewise and lower for the rest of the year.

The gold bulls has been soaring again, too many, too fast.
Technically, in my opinion, we do not have a good reversal pattern to call for a bottom.
It allways takes time to turn a large ship 180 degrees.

With a 12 year bull run, a 3 year correction isn't too much. Just 3-4 years ago price was
trading at the $1100 level with a low in 2010 at $1042. We may head towards that level before
the trend changes again.

The recent rally was pretty strong and firm, but in my opinion, likely a C-wave rally.
C-waves are usually strong untill they stop dead.

The alternative is of course if this is a new uptrend, we should soon see gold take
off and hit new highs. If this does not happen over the next few weeks and starts
choppy and lower trading we can assume we are in either a triangle or start of a 5th wave lower.


Weekly chart:

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Monthly:

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  • #4
  • Edited 4:10pm Apr 6, 2014 3:47pm | Edited 4:10pm
S&P Index (ES) -- Weekly & Daily chart analyses.

The next few days will be crucial for the small and mid term trend for the S&P index.

While it very possibly can shoot up to marginally new highs, many signs are now pointing to
lower prices and possibly a larger correction at the very least. Unless we see sideways and
higher prices in the next week or two, I think it's time for a small/mid term trend change
where I will look to sell the index in the coming week.

The trend is clearly up and at this stage a potential reversal is yet to be confirmed .
We do have solid daily reversal candle from friday's high, but currently there's
good support below and no significant pivot levels has so far been taken out.


Weekly chart:

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Daily:

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  • #5
  • Edited 7:23pm Apr 6, 2014 6:39pm | Edited 7:23pm
Quoting enterfx
S&P Index (ES) -- Weekly & Daily chart analyses.

Levels the S&P has to break to confirm a downturn is first a break of the yellow TL at 1840/1845 (ES) where we also find the 50 day EMA.
Next it has to take out 1833 and 1822 (ES), the recent lows where also the lower daily Bollinger band sits.

Break of these levels will likely trigger a bigger selloff.


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  • #6
  • Apr 7, 2014 9:26am Apr 7, 2014 9:26am
Quoting enterfx
EURUSD Weekly - Soon to set off a solid trend:
EurUsd is ticking upwards again without breaking any key levels. So far we're on track. It also has room for another
low at the 3650 level before resuming upward to finish the last leg up.
  • #7
  • Apr 7, 2014 11:00am Apr 7, 2014 11:00am
Quoting enterfx
GOLD XAU/USD -- Weekly and monthly analyses There's been plenty of calls that gold has made a bottom and the trend has resumed to the upside. I find some missing pieces in the long term picture for this to be the case. While it remains to see over the next few weeks, I think we are heading sidewise and lower for the rest of the year. The gold bulls has been soaring again, too many, too fast. Technically, in my opinion, we do not have a good reversal pattern to call for a bottom. It allways takes time to turn a large ship 180 degrees. With a 12 year...
Gooo view. The thing is how long we wait to witness the trend. This trend suits for investors not for intraday traders. Tks. Keep your work.
  • #8
  • Apr 7, 2014 5:43pm Apr 7, 2014 5:43pm
Quoting enterfx
S&P Index (ES) -- Weekly & Daily chart analyses. {image}
Follow up on the S&P ES :

Without a bounce today and continued selloff without breaking any key levels, makes this structure tricky as nothing is confirmed.
The 4Hour is now very oversold and the 1H and 30min timeframes is now showing divergence, so a hard bounce is likely in the
cards for tomorrow. The question then is if this leg has finished and wether new highs will be made.

The trend is still up utill we break 1823 ES (short term) . We have to remember that so far the trend has been monstrous
and I allways say that it takes time to turn a large ship, even after the motors has been shut off.

What we see now is maybe a topping pattern, because divergence are building on the daily and weekly charts.
The structure atm is very unclear and unconfirmed either ways

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  • #9
  • Apr 7, 2014 7:04pm Apr 7, 2014 7:04pm
enter - a good thread! post often pls.

i like MA and BB
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=476524

perhaps exchange of trading views would be nice

what are the MA you used in the chart?

thanks
  • #10
  • Apr 7, 2014 8:01pm Apr 7, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting tlpfx14
enter - a good thread! post often pls. i like MA and BB http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=476524 perhaps exchange of trading views would be nice what are the MA you used in the chart? thanks
Thank you.

Blue = EMA50
Red = EMA200
I also use the EMA100, but not on this chart

The yellow line on top is the upper ATR keltner band.
  • #11
  • Apr 7, 2014 8:18pm Apr 7, 2014 8:18pm
Quoting enterfx
{quote} Thank you. Blue = EMA50 Red = EMA200 I also use the EMA100, but not on this chart The yellow line on top is the upper ATR keltner band.

thanks, mate.
i feel that you are a senior trader

by the way, gold has been following silver on down movement since 2-3 weeks ago.
from yesterday, silver showing an inside bar (after mb).
potentially she will head south.
then gold to follow on.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post7389168

my 2 cents views.
trade happily.
cheers
  • #12
  • Apr 8, 2014 6:26am Apr 8, 2014 6:26am
Quoting enterfx
EURUSD Weekly - Soon to set off a solid trend:

EURUSD update:

Possible scenario for the EurUsd. There is room for another low without breaking any keylevels.
The 4Hour is overbought and is showing hidden divergence.

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  • #13
  • Apr 8, 2014 11:44am Apr 8, 2014 11:44am
Quoting enterfx
{quote} Follow up on the S&P ES : Without a bounce today and continued selloff without breaking any key levels, makes this structure tricky as nothing is confirmed. The 4Hour is now very oversold and the 1H and 30min timeframes is now showing divergence, so a hard bounce is likely in the cards for tomorrow.
Follow up on the S&P ES :
So far, Looks like equal legs down in a possible correction and a so called "flat" correction. Flats takes out all lows except the lowest. Very tricky.

What makes me think it was a C-wave down from Friday, is because it had a C wave / 3rd wave momentum/selloff without a 1st and 2nd wave.
If this is correct, as long as 1823 ES holds, prices should go further north in the coming days.

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  • #14
  • Apr 9, 2014 1:42am Apr 9, 2014 1:42am
Quoting enterfx
{quote} Follow up on the S&P ES : So far, Looks like equal legs down in a possible correction and a so called "flat" correction. Flats takes out all lows except the lowest. Very tricky. What makes me think it was a C-wave down from Friday, is because it had a C wave / 3rd wave momentum/selloff without a 1st and 2nd wave. If this is correct, as long as 1823 ES holds, prices should go further north in the coming days. {image}
First, let me congregulate you for starting such a meaningful thread.
Keep up the good work.

I'm actually trading S&P500 on a demo account learning from it, I've similar counts to your a-b-c flat, and expecting a wave c up equal to a.
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Wave (c) of the flat looks complete, with an interesting overflow of wave v.
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #15
  • Apr 10, 2014 12:08pm Apr 10, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} First, let me congregulate you for starting such a meaningful thread. Keep up the good work. I'm actually trading S&P500 on a demo account learning from it, I've similar counts to your a-b-c flat, and expecting a wave c up equal to a. {image} Wave (c) of the flat looks complete, with an interesting overflow of wave v. {image}

Thanks skyhok. I haven't been at my computer for the past couple days but thanks for your charts. Looks good. However today's downmove looks real ugly thus far. Atm it looks like a 3rd wave, unless we get a strong upmove soon, remains to see.
  • #16
  • Apr 11, 2014 9:58am Apr 11, 2014 9:58am
Hi enterfx,
Thanks for your response for the last post.
I also have a long term view on EURUSD which I posted in 'Elliott Wave Trading' thread #post 6747. I thought it would be more appropriate there with the EW counts. I believe this count fits in with the complex triangular corrective pattern of the past 5 years that baffles many people.
Please take a look, like to get your view on it.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #17
  • Apr 12, 2014 4:59pm Apr 12, 2014 4:59pm
I got some long term investments going into the SP500 now February started the year off on a great note and looking to continue with the bullish engulfing candle on our monthly chart. The thing is projection wise I will simply just be trailing my stop as price will be making fresh highs once back up there. Should price make a bigger correction my stop will be below 1700.
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #18
  • Apr 13, 2014 5:35am Apr 13, 2014 5:35am
Quoting Rtm
I got some long term investments going into the SP500 now February started the year off on a great note and looking to continue with the bullish engulfing candle on our monthly chart. The thing is projection wise I will simply just be trailing my stop as price will be making fresh highs once back up there. Should price make a bigger correction my stop will be below 1700. {image}
What about the bearish engulfing that comes right after?
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #19
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:38am Apr 13, 2014 6:38am
nice review and charts enterfx. GOLD is a bit more simple. Above 1300 it's mildly bullish, however GOLD will need to break above 1380-1420 to have a shot at starting a decent move / possible uptrend. current price action looks OK, but mild, supported by a double bottom on weeklies.

Overall, mixed outlook currently. Building up a LONG position in GOLD requires for price to close above 1400, at least for me.

here's monthly chart with 50 fibo and support zone. Don't overlook the current strong support zone.
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  • #20
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:09am Apr 13, 2014 7:09am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} What about the bearish engulfing that comes right after?
well for one its not even closed yet and secondmto consider that going against that huge uptrend with this tiny little bearish engulfing bar is a gamble imo, looks more like people just taking profit.
All posts are my personal opinion
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