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AUD/USD

  • #75,821
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:40pm Apr 4, 2014 3:40pm
everybody is just too excited with analysts throwing shit on the walls, forecasting AU @ 9100-9200.
Fact is that above 9200 AU triggered a rally, which is still ongoing. consensus of some rigged banks don't mean much.
Fact is that this wild pack will post crooked forecasts to get in at better prices.

Finally, D1 gold chart, price action pulled back to the 200 WMA and this produced a strong reaction, support by TL as well.
1400 to be printed on gold soon time (1-3 months). This test by itself could produce a 100+ dollar move.

Investors are fogged by the general market conditions, and the flow of institutional money is getting booked elsewhere - gold, carry trades,
dividend stocks, etc.

Markets have been mediocre Q1 of 2014 and funds still have to show positive alpha.

here's that D1 gold chart, to support further upside on AU.
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  • #75,822
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:55pm Apr 4, 2014 3:55pm
Yeap.

I had to eat some shit to get out of this trade. But I learned my hard lesson. Wiped out all of my 3 weeks gains and some on this single trade wiped out.

I think the S&P is done with its rally. A/U will continue with its price pattern breakout completion and the JPY will move up a bit. Not considering to short within a couple weeks time.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #75,823
  • Apr 4, 2014 4:05pm Apr 4, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting ruffryders
everybody is just too excited with analysts throwing shit on the walls, forecasting AU @ 9100-9200. Fact is that above 9200 AU triggered a rally, which is still ongoing. consensus of some rigged banks don't mean much. Fact is that this wild pack will post crooked forecasts to get in at better prices. Finally, D1 gold chart, price action pulled back to the 200 WMA and this produced a strong reaction, support by TL as well. 1400 to be printed on gold soon time (1-3 months). This test by itself could produce a 100+ dollar move. Investors are fogged...
just do it
  • #75,824
  • Apr 4, 2014 4:43pm Apr 4, 2014 4:43pm
nail in the coffin of AU shorts. please sleep tight.

this is daily.
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  • #75,825
  • Apr 4, 2014 9:06pm Apr 4, 2014 9:06pm
Quoting ruffryders
reviewed my AU 4-6 weeks view in my thread. takeaway: if you are short you'll crap your pants soon. this train poised for a strong runup. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post7385194
I Short this pair and put my SL above 300MA on weekly TF
Your post sounds creepy to me..
but market always right, time will tell
Good Luck for your trade
sorry for my poor english
Forex as Leverage
  • #75,826
  • Apr 4, 2014 9:59pm Apr 4, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} This one was a timing issue for me really, the market just moved all one direction on a massive scale and didnt come back, so yes a retrace of bigger correction may still be in the works but I have already waited much too long as there is no use sitting for periods of time with floating crap when can use it to make money with other possibly better trades.
went back to a bit of scalping last night and managed 1k, we continue in thread but I think I might stay away from AUDUSD for a little while. Mind you I was listening to bloomberg and even the experts were expecting a 220 ish new farms data. So they were shocked when it came under the 200k, so once again the fundamentals threw me a curve ball... grr.
Attached Image
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,827
  • Apr 4, 2014 10:00pm Apr 4, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting Neqrotik
Yeap. I had to eat some shit to get out of this trade. But I learned my hard lesson. Wiped out all of my 3 weeks gains and some on this single trade wiped out. I think the S&P is done with its rally. A/U will continue with its price pattern breakout completion and the JPY will move up a bit. Not considering to short within a couple weeks time.
I am feeling ya champ, very much the same story for me.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,828
  • Apr 4, 2014 11:13pm Apr 4, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting ruffryders
everybody is just too excited with analysts throwing shit on the walls, forecasting AU @ 9100-9200. Fact is that above 9200 AU triggered a rally, which is still ongoing. consensus of some rigged banks don't mean much. Fact is that this wild pack will post crooked forecasts to get in at better prices. Finally, D1 gold chart, price action pulled back to the 200 WMA and this produced a strong reaction, support by TL as well. 1400 to be printed on gold soon time (1-3 months). This test by itself could produce a 100+ dollar move. Investors are fogged...
I don't quite agree with this. Gold is making correction as it was down too fast and it just bounces off from some of its Support levels (1,277). If you draw the Trendline on D1 properly (not the way you draw on your chart), you will observe that the trendline is broken as well, so I expect Gold will go to Sideways/Downtrend mode. This correction may create lower High swing and it is another good opportunity to go short selling it.

For the fundamental things, as Banks are facing with Vockler rule and some was rejected the margin levels for Commodity speculation, so who gonna speculate to Gold if it is not triggered by World Events?

For the AUDUSD part, I strongly believe it will go up to test higher levels soon, but it's not triggered by Gold, it is mainly due to its fundamental things even though we have positive correlation among AUD and Gold.
  • #75,829
  • Apr 5, 2014 1:17am Apr 5, 2014 1:17am
three TP targets on LONGS this upcoming week, all are green. don't see AU trading below 9270-80.

this week

0.9380
0.9340
0.9320

soon time (2-5 weeks)

0.9400
0.9450
0.9525
  • #75,830
  • Apr 5, 2014 1:26am Apr 5, 2014 1:26am
Quoting Chanlie
{quote} I Short this pair and put my SL above 300MA on weekly TF Your post sounds creepy to me.. but market always right, time will tell Good Luck for your trade sorry for my poor english
time and price already told us, see D1 chart and inverted H&S pattern on this chart.
  • #75,831
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:17am Apr 5, 2014 2:17am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} went back to a bit of scalping last night and managed 1k, we continue in thread but I think I might stay away from AUDUSD for a little while. Mind you I was listening to bloomberg and even the experts were expecting a 220 ish new farms data. So they were shocked when it came under the 200k, so once again the fundamentals threw me a curve ball... grr. {image}
What patterns do you use for scalping? I like MACD and pivots
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #75,832
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:22am Apr 5, 2014 2:22am
Quoting ruffryders
three TP targets on LONGS this upcoming week, all are green. don't see AU trading below 9270-80. this week 0.9380 0.9340 0.9320 soon time (2-5 weeks) 0.9400 0.9450 0.9525
Problem I see is that you are too sure in your projection.Market can go 200pip correction from 93 just like that.
You assume certain fundamentals stays in place.
I have a healthy respect for the market to prove me wrong.Not only you project huge numbers but project time table as well.Just don't get boxed into your own projections.
This is the negative side of forums.Once you publicly declare your positions one's ego tends to defend it no matter what.As traders we must be fluid like water to adapt and in changing environment.
As Darwin said its not the smartest that survive but the once most adaptable to change.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #75,833
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:28am Apr 5, 2014 2:28am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Problem I see is that you are too sure in your projection.Market can go 200pip correction from 93 just like that. You assume certain fundamentals stays in place. I have a healthy respect for the market to prove me wrong.Not only you project huge numbers but project time table as well.Just don't get boxed into your own projections. This is the negative side of forums.Once you publicly declare your positions one's ego tends to defend it no matter what.As traders we must be fluid like water to adapt and in changing environment. As Darwin said...
Davit, thanks for the update. I'm already positioned with 40KK, 35KK EU AU short and 5KK AU LONG. I shared my reasoning for both trades both in terms of techs and fundies.(H&S on EU AU D1, and inverted H&S on AU).

Pretty much you can do the same. I'm not into philosophy big time, sorry, here to make money.
  • #75,834
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:32am Apr 5, 2014 2:32am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Problem I see is that you are too sure in your projection.Market can go 200pip correction from 93 just like that. You assume certain fundamentals stays in place. I have a healthy respect for the market to prove me wrong.Not only you project huge numbers but project time table as well.Just don't get boxed into your own projections. This is the negative side of forums.Once you publicly declare your positions one's ego tends to defend it no matter what.As traders we must be fluid like water to adapt and in changing environment. As Darwin said...
hi mate...

just a rough plan... it seems very bullish but ( imho ) Kangaroos need two legs to jump .

still need another confirmation for sure ... aniway.

any idea brother ?
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not euphoria follower
  • #75,835
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:33am Apr 5, 2014 2:33am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Davit, thanks for the update. I'm already positioned with 40KK, 35KK EU AU short and 5KK AU LONG. I shared my reasoning for both trades both in terms of techs and fundies.(H&S on EU AU D1, and inverted H&S on AU). Pretty much you can do the same. I'm not into philosophy big time, sorry, here to make money.
I am little confused here
You are very bullish on AU but you have 35kk short on AU and 5kk long same time? Did I miss something?
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #75,836
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:34am Apr 5, 2014 2:34am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am little confused here You are very bullish on AU but you have 35kk short on AU and 5kk long same time? Did I miss something? Regards
5KK AU LONG and 35 KK EU AU SHORT (EUR AUD).
  • #75,837
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:41am Apr 5, 2014 2:41am
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} hi mate... just a rough plan... it seems very bullish but ( imho ) Kangaroos need two legs to jump . still need another confirmation for sure ... aniway. any idea brother ? {image} {image}
Hi my Harmonic friend.
I have been patiently waiting for this cow to fall.Its running on thin ice.Closer it gets to 93 greater the pressure.
I am heavy short on Kiwi currently after clearing the house from 8690.Not interested to open second front.All my troops are ready to storm Kiwi land
What I am trying to say Kiwi 's Top is limited whereas Aussie has huge room.Better Short is Kiwi.Last 15 years or more Kiwi topped out 8830 in 2011 and that's only once.Fundamentally with dairy price fall Kiwi is really vulnerable lot more then Aussie.

Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #75,838
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:45am Apr 5, 2014 2:45am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} 5KK AU LONG and 35 KK EU AU SHORT (EUR AUD).
ok it makes sense now.Good luck with your longs
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #75,839
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:47am Apr 5, 2014 2:47am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi my Harmonic friend. I have been patiently waiting for this cow to fall.Its running on thin ice.Closer it gets to 93 greater the pressure. I am heavy short on Kiwi currently after clearing the house from 8690.Not interested to open second front.All my troops are ready to storm Kiwi land What I am trying to say Kiwi 's Top is limited whereas Aussie has huge room.Better Short is Kiwi. REgards
hi brada,

especially for kiwi ... their leader also want KIWI getting lower and lower...

about koala and kangaroo.. green home sales, export and pmi failed to cut down the unemployment rate and ......now last data in PMI is red and china in trouble.. i will not say something about next unemployment level ... but PMI and red China already gave a clue IMHO ( detail )
not euphoria follower
  • #75,840
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:52am Apr 5, 2014 2:52am
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} hi brada, especially for kiwi ... their leader also want KIWI getting lower and lower... about koala and kangaroo.. green home sales, export and pmi failed to cut down the unemployment rate and ......now last data in PMI is red and china in trouble.. i will not say something about next unemployment level ... but PMI and red China already gave a clue already
9350 a key number 1.618 fib extension.Harmonic classic turning point.
Watch that number.
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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