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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #12,781
  • Apr 3, 2014 5:00pm Apr 3, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting EllisParrish
{quote} After the 4 pm candlestick, a doji, now 2 doji's, usually means continuation of an existing pattern.
Thanks Eliis, didn't know that.
  • #12,782
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:04pm Apr 3, 2014 6:04pm
boring f*ing day for the yen
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #12,783
  • Apr 3, 2014 8:12pm Apr 3, 2014 8:12pm
Attached Image
  • #12,784
  • Apr 3, 2014 8:12pm Apr 3, 2014 8:12pm
Trading GJ, and all currencies, is like golf; when I think I got it right, it knocks me flat.

My guru says buy where everyone else has a stop, that works if the trend has been established. What is the trend now? I don't know. Also I get my support lines all wrong. Horizontal supports don't seem to apply, only diagonal ones do.

I have still lots to learn.
  • #12,785
  • Apr 3, 2014 8:43pm Apr 3, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting LetsTrade
Trading GJ, and all currencies, is like golf; when I think I got it right, it knocks me flat. My guru says buy where everyone else has a stop, that works if the trend has been established. What is the trend now? I don't know. Also I get my support lines all wrong. Horizontal supports don't seem to apply, only diagonal ones do. I have still lots to learn.
Since the move up from the bottom, diagonals have been the primary supports. In fact, those diagonals all run, with few exceptions, in parallel with each other and continue to do so - all the way since the diagonal line 150 ~ 140 ~ 133.5 ~ 129. From there on, they all run pretty much in parallel with that line.

Horizontal supports seem to work for smaller moves (sometimes) within the cycle.
  • #12,786
  • Edited Apr 4, 2014 1:17am Apr 3, 2014 9:16pm | Edited Apr 4, 2014 1:17am
Good Evening Forex Factory Members and Guests

I would first like to start out by referring to you my previous post yesterday, Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 9:03am Eastern.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post7378438

Here is part of the post:

So while you are in your trade on the GBP/JPY, your exits in terms of take profits MUST be executed before the USD/JPY reaches its next level of resistance. Once the USD/JPY reaches its next level of resistance, you MUST IMMEDIATELY take some profit of your GBP/JPY long.

USD/JPY
Resistance
103.764 The high was taken out and stops above were hit (bullish continuation)
104.178 - dont ignore
104.332 currently being targeted
104.851 very significant
105.160

Reinforcing The Point With The Facts

Now Lets Look At What Actually Happened

The USD/JPY's Significant Level of Resistance is at 104.178

At 23:35 Eastern, Wednesday, April 2, 2014, the USD/JPY options barrier 104.00/05 was breached and traded to 104.073 (so price action approached the significant level of resistance, just shy of 10.5pips)

At 23:35 Eastern, Wednesday, April 2, 2014, the GBP/JPY traded to 173.136 and then fell 97.8pips to 172.158 (support)

Two questions:

1. What was the advice given about when to take some profit on GBP/JPY?

Advice given based on previous post:
While you are in your trade on the GBP/JPY, your exits in terms of take profits MUST be executed before the USD/JPY reaches its next level of resistance. Once the USD/JPY reaches its next level of resistance, you MUST IMMEDIATELY take some profit of your GBP/JPY long.


2. What was the stated significant level of support on the GBP/JPY?

GBP/JPY
Support
172.08 -first level of significant support - PRICE ACTION traded to 172.158 (shy of 7 pips)
171.07 -second level of significant support

Remarks:


So you see how important it is to take profit on the GBP/JPY at every significant level of resistance on the USD/JPY when price action gets to those levels.

So is the same, for re-entering the trade, long, when price action on the USD/JPY gets to the significant levels of support on the USD/JPY as long as you are trading in the direction of the trend.

HDA OUT
  • #12,787
  • Edited 10:19pm Apr 3, 2014 9:56pm | Edited 10:19pm
The full list of 10am Eastern USD/JPY Options Expires for Friday, April 4, 2014 are as follows

105.00 -pay out 2 Billion
104.25/30 -pay out 700 million
104.00 -pay out 250 million
103.50 -pay out 1 Billion
103.25 -pay out 350 million
103.00
102.70
102.60
102.50

Please see previous post yesterday, Wednesday, April 2, 2014 as an example as to how you may interpret the information above, to help with your analysis, while you trade your plan.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post7379546

Please also see previous post yesterday, Wednesday, April 2, 2014 which confirms why the USD/JPY behaved the way it did today.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post7379720

Hence, smash1820's response about the USD/JPY's behaviour today, Thusrday, April 3, 2014.

Quoting smash1820
boring f*ing day for the yen
HDA OUT
  • #12,788
  • Apr 3, 2014 10:00pm Apr 3, 2014 10:00pm
If trading fx as simple as that, we will see 1000000 millionaire daily in fx world, keep in mind currently stock at it's peak .... Equities down to hell.... If stock exploded, it will drag down UJ as well... And 140.100 is daily overbought for UJ ... It must see 102.5x to continue its journey to 106.x ... I might be wrong... But time will tell... Adios bro...
Equities open and promptly sell off
  • #12,789
  • Apr 3, 2014 10:52pm Apr 3, 2014 10:52pm
NON-FARM PAY ROLL OUTLOOK

FRIDAY, APRIL 4, 2014

How to interpret the results, so that you can plan your trade

USD/JPY
Resistance
106.00 -Major Major Level of Resistance
105.50 -Major Major Level of Resistance
105.160 -Better than 250k resistance should hold
104.851 -Better than 200k resistance should hold
104.332
104.178


USD/JPY
Support
103.245 -Between 160/190k support should hold
102.819 -Below 150k support should hold
102.254


HDA OUT
  • #12,790
  • Apr 4, 2014 1:16am Apr 4, 2014 1:16am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Since the move up from the bottom, diagonals have been the primary supports. In fact, those diagonals all run, with few exceptions, in parallel with each other and continue to do so - all the way since the diagonal line 150 ~ 140 ~ 133.5 ~ 129. From there on, they all run pretty much in parallel with that line. Horizontal supports seem to work for smaller moves (sometimes) within the cycle.
Thanks for your help.
  • #12,791
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:16am Apr 4, 2014 2:16am
Attached Image
  • #12,792
  • Apr 4, 2014 2:20am Apr 4, 2014 2:20am
I bought the pair at 169.56 last week.It is a very good price.I personaly think it is a bull market and have 1000+ pips space to run.But now the pair feels slightly overbought in addition to a cloud of resistance around 173.00.There has also been 8 consecutive days of bulls, they made need to rest slightly.So that is what I am confusing now,I am afraid of losing my position if I sell them for the maybe coming dip.
  • #12,793
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:12am Apr 4, 2014 3:12am
Quoting niunai
I bought the pair at 169.56 last week.It is a very good price.I personaly think it is a bull market and have 1000+ pips space to run.But now the pair feels slightly overbought in addition to a cloud of resistance around 173.00.There has also been 8 consecutive days of bulls, they made need to rest slightly.So that is what I am confusing now,I am afraid of losing my position if I sell them for the maybe coming dip.
what's your investment period ? In Q2 (april may june) there is higher probability of GJ going to 163-165 then 175.

I can't say we are at the top yet, but from the bottom @ 168 it was up 500 pips already. There is room to maybe do 174-175 now,
however risk turn back to the downside now.
  • #12,794
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:13am Apr 4, 2014 3:13am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} what's your investment period ? In Q2 (april may june) there is higher probability of GJ going to 163-165 then 175. I can't say we are at the top yet, but from the bottom @ 168 it was up 500 pips already. There is room to maybe do 174-175 now, however risk turn back to the downside now.
consider potential DB top on D1 as well.
  • #12,795
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:14am Apr 4, 2014 3:14am
Quoting niunai
I bought the pair at 169.56 last week.It is a very good price.I personaly think it is a bull market and have 1000+ pips space to run.But now the pair feels slightly overbought in addition to a cloud of resistance around 173.00.There has also been 8 consecutive days of bulls, they made need to rest slightly.So that is what I am confusing now,I am afraid of losing my position if I sell them for the maybe coming dip.
Just an advice, you had quite a run from 169.56. There is always nothing wrong with protecting the profit if you feel uneasy. The uptrend should be okay but always make sure you book-in some profit as well, especially with Geppy.

What I have learnt here is never get greedy, you will get a lot of chances and everyday is a new day!
  • #12,796
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:35am Apr 4, 2014 3:35am
Quoting HDA
Good Evening Forex Factory Members and Guests I would first like to start out by referring to you my previous post yesterday, Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 9:03am Eastern. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post7378438 Here is part of the post: So while you are in your trade on the GBP/JPY, your exits in terms of take profits MUST be executed before the USD/JPY reaches its next level of resistance. Once the USD/JPY reaches its next level of resistance, you MUST IMMEDIATELY take some profit of your GBP/JPY long. USD/JPY...
HDA very nice and detailed recap. Awesome. Please keep posting.
  • #12,797
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:36am Apr 4, 2014 3:36am
weekly trend view

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,798
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:58am Apr 4, 2014 3:58am
Nine-month-old boy booked for murder in Pakistan
  • #12,799
  • Apr 4, 2014 4:10am Apr 4, 2014 4:10am
Quoting EllisParrish
{quote} Concur... My humble approach: In the past 12 hours, collectively, the forum has thoroughly dissected our current situation from almost every angle with very thorough discussion and counter discussion of the probabilities. Additionally, with the US Stock Market down for the day so far, which could mean it is possible for weakness in both Asia and Europe this evening topped with the calendar of Friday morning announcements. Not saying there may be some minor opportunities, (a speculating comment), I would prefer to take the approach of what...
100% right. It is more lucrative to abstain sometimes.
  • #12,800
  • Edited 4:28am Apr 4, 2014 4:17am | Edited 4:28am
to get a feel for the GJ upcoming price action, worth popping up UJ W1 chart.
The yen got stuck in-below strong resistance zone, active since 2008.

With yen in strong resistance zone, and GU favoring more downside now, GJ followthrough will likely be a move to 168-170 now.

Alternative scenario - GU get's stuck in range, and UJ moves lower (AU looks poised for upside in April 2014).
This too will result in GJ moving to 168-170.

Overall, my view on GJ - limited upside, much better R/R on downside now.

PS: the bit on the chart is fragment on W1 in 2008.
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