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AUD/USD

  • #75,761
  • Apr 3, 2014 5:52am Apr 3, 2014 5:52am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} Two shorts and two longs for quick scalps this morning. But I still have those crazy shorts from last week that I am holding longer term (not much choice really). We did in fact hit the support on the H4 at the 0.92113, support is now stronger on the H4 chart represented by the thickness of the cloud. But the US session should punch through the support. {image}
I disagree. Prepare for new highs on this pair.
  • #75,762
  • Apr 3, 2014 5:54am Apr 3, 2014 5:54am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} given some good US data will no problem
I know I should not listen to it, but bloomberg is touting good news all round for US data.
Yesterdays epic us stocks jump, nearly everything up - almost too good to be true
Employment down as companies put more on.

Only bad news I have heard from them is about the shooting and the cap decision on the kickbacks to candidates.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,763
  • Apr 3, 2014 5:54am Apr 3, 2014 5:54am
Quoting bdebaere
{quote} I disagree. Prepare for new highs on this pair.
why?
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,764
  • Apr 3, 2014 5:58am Apr 3, 2014 5:58am
4 hr still looks bullish, more strength to come i suspect. may have just popped in the last few minutes....
  • #75,765
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:00am Apr 3, 2014 6:00am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} why?
Daily, Weekly look bullish to me, I'm just waiting for confirmation on 4H. On top of that 82% of FF is short on this pair.
  • #75,766
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:00am Apr 3, 2014 6:00am
It is hitting resistance on the M30, Bull TK cross forming however is below the cloud so should not have much strength. Chinkou is hitting bottom of cloud and the candle has tested the cloud. But we have a tk cross to the bear (blue cloud)... I am thinking bear...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,767
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:05am Apr 3, 2014 6:05am
Quoting shripsfx
4 hr still looks bullish, more strength to come i suspect. may have just popped in the last few minutes....
Quoting bdebaere
{quote} Daily, Weekly look bullish to me, I'm just waiting for confirmation on 4H. On top of that 82% of FF is short on this pair.
Wow both, yes the H4 is still showing a strong bull trend, as is the Daily.
The monthly is showing a bear trend forming, tk twist just forming blue cloud right at the end.. first chart

But watch the M30 very closely, showing bulls exhausted already, expecting a tk cross to the bear for further downside - short term. Last chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 74 KB
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,768
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:07am Apr 3, 2014 6:07am
But do not let me sway your trade.. I am wrong more often than I care to be.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,769
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:11am Apr 3, 2014 6:11am
Quoting whackdiddy
It is hitting resistance on the M30, Bull TK cross forming however is below the cloud so should not have much strength. Chinkou is hitting bottom of cloud and the candle has tested the cloud. But we have a tk cross to the bear (blue cloud)... I am thinking bear... {image}
I like Ichimoku, love it actually. To me it is the best indicator out there. However it is still weak (like all other indicators) on the lower timeframes:
kumo is constantly being crossed: there is no real power behind it;
the relation of the KS/TS crosses to the kumo is unreliable: just this morning a bull cross happened below the kumo, it didn't stop;

With your positions you're clearly shooting for the long term. Looking at 30M is kind of moot, no offense.

Sincerely
  • #75,770
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:11am Apr 3, 2014 6:11am
High frequency trading talk is making me ...

I know a team that enter scalps 5 - 10 minutes out of a major news break with the aim to be out of the trade before the news actually is released. They trade the emotions of the fundamentalists and are rather successful. Is it wrong, no not in my opinion, they are trading like the rest of us and have found a formula that works for them.

I try to get the most information I possibly can, if I came up with a game changing strategy I sure as hell would use it. Who wouldn't, hell even Robin Hood and his tight tights would use it.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,771
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:15am Apr 3, 2014 6:15am
Quoting bdebaere
{quote} I like Ichimoku, love it actually. To me it is the best indicator out there. However it is still weak (like all other indicators) on the lower timeframes: kumo is constantly being crossed: there is no real power behind it; the relation of the KS/TS crosses to the kumo is unreliable: just this morning a bull cross happened below the kumo, it didn't stop; With your positions you're clearly shooting for the long term. Looking at 30M is kind of moot, no offense. Sincerely
Fair call, I do also place BB and stoch as well as the dreaded fundamentals on the chart as well. So not just ichimoku, but yeah it is a quick confirmation of trend for me. I would be very successful with it if I traded by it and stopped listening to the fundamentals but lack the discipline, working on it.

I still use the smaller time frames, only referring the M30 because that is the resistance we are hitting.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,772
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:20am Apr 3, 2014 6:20am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} Fair call, I do also place BB and stoch as well as the dreaded fundamentals on the chart as well. So not just ichimoku, but yeah it is a quick confirmation of trend for me. I would be very successful with it if I traded by it and stopped listening to the fundamentals but lack the discipline, working on it. I still use the smaller time frames, only referring the M30 because that is the resistance we are hitting.
Good luck to you sir!
  • #75,773
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:33am Apr 3, 2014 6:33am
short placed...

Heading out for a beer and dinner in that order..
Happy trading guys.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,774
  • Apr 3, 2014 6:40am Apr 3, 2014 6:40am
Too muchimportant news coming, better to step aside first
  • #75,775
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:02am Apr 3, 2014 7:02am
Quoting tatopermanen
Too muchimportant news coming, better to step aside first
short term support level now holding as resistance, just need good US data in 29 min to confirm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #75,776
  • Apr 3, 2014 8:21am Apr 3, 2014 8:21am
Crazy week... only manage to get 800 buck this week by short EA n GA...
Untill now both pair not manage to break weekly pivot... n AU still not yet testing weekly pivot...

bias still remain bullish on AU & bearish on EA n GA
Peace Yo!
  • #75,777
  • Apr 3, 2014 9:09am Apr 3, 2014 9:09am
Nice and strong PA on AU. Lets see if AU keeps cool upon NFP this Friday, if so, looks like BUY to me next Monday.
  • #75,778
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:06pm Apr 3, 2014 7:06pm
Rate rise in AUD wont be a good thing for them. Seems the only key driver is household prices. Spending is nowhere it should be. Couple that with weak export demand and suppressed commodity prices in the middle of a structural shift in the economy.

A rate rise seems to be nothing more than another slowdown for them as things stand. Like I said many times before, fiscal stimulus will have to come to make up for the private sector shortfall.

When Ben Bernanke said "Monetary policy cannot work in a vacuum". He was so right. This won't be just the case in the U.S either.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #75,779
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:16pm Apr 3, 2014 7:16pm
Quoting mrluckystar
Crazy week... only manage to get 800 buck this week by short EA n GA... Untill now both pair not manage to break weekly pivot... n AU still not yet testing weekly pivot... bias still remain bullish on AU & bearish on EA n GA
Sma 300 being tested at M15 at AU for 3rd time...see the EA n GA also... testing lower trendline flag
Peace Yo!
  • #75,780
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:18pm Apr 3, 2014 7:18pm
When you have foreign cash buyers for housing coming into the market a rate rise will only present the foreigners with cheaper property and the locals with pain.

What needs to be done is to restrict the foreign buyers .. the currency will fall and the economy will grow.

A nice foreign buyers property tax would be nice ...


Quoting Neqrotik
Rate rise in AUD wont be a good thing for them. Seems the only key driver is household prices. Spending is nowhere it should be. Couple that with weak export demand and suppressed commodity prices in the middle of a structural shift in the economy. A rate rise seems to be nothing more than another slowdown for them as things stand. Like I said many times before, fiscal stimulus will have to come to make up for the private sector shortfall. When Ben Bernanke said "Monetary policy cannot work in a vacuum". He was so right. This won't be just the case...
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