Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

Its trading inbetween 172.40/20; next decision point upside: 173.40/20; next decision point downside: 170.80/60
Liquidity is decreasing and im done for today. GL everyone.

"The BOJ, which holds its next policy meeting April 7-8, could boost monetary stimulus as early as June, said Kobayashi."

nice thread, have to point out though that from recent bott @ 168, it's almost a run up of 450 pips by now.

even if there's something left in the tanks, I can't see how GJ can travel further up above 173 without doing 170-170.60 first.

PS: having said that, H4 chart looks strongly bullish and well supported 171.20-60 area.

Possible since 170.80/60 is a major decision point
Add: But if 172.40/20 holds here it wont test it

Held my long to 172.50. Not alot of stops to trigger, so let's see if we can get some later when GJ makes a run for 175. Anyone short right now?

H4 gj review. Looks like wolfe wave setup in the making, with point 5 approx @ 174.40-60 area.

So currently still got more room to go higher, and then potential reversal from 174 to 169.

Could be worthwhile.

gj safe strategy until 174.40-60 reached. Buying into dips. First dipper - lets get 172.00-20 and i'm buying into this.

looking for a free lunch delivery tmrw, buying the dipper as per below.

if the sucker fails to dip to 00 level, buying the sob @ 20 will work.

FREE LUNCH THIS WEDNESDAY: BUY DIPPER 172.00-20 TP +70.

the only one left short selling gj now. :d

Love it!!

@ruffryders:

My analysis is taking much longer than usual in order write the comprehensive review. I couldn't just look at the GBP/JPY in isolation. I had to look at the USD/JPY and that took some time and then I checked options, swaps, charts, bids, offers, correlation, significant levels, support, resistance, trend etc etc etc

You really gave me a mammoth of a task and my greatest challenge was trying to see how to compress all this data and express in such a way to make for easy reading.

This is why my wife hates when I come into the forums, it takes up so much time writing these posts for easy reading. I am still writing my analysis, but I just wanted to keep you in the loop.

I will definitely be in the dog house after this

Will post analysis when finished.

HDA OUT

P.S. Remember I do not trade this pair.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post7376933

Anyone in favor of GBP JPY retracing to about 170-169.50?

@ruffryders:

HERE WE GO:

GBP/JPY is the mother of all currency pairs to trade. It is not for the faint of heart. To trade this pair one has to note the very significant levels and place trades at those levels and hold the trade in the direction of the trend.

Buying the GBP/JPY results in a positive a SWAP (the interest earned while holding an open trade)

With respect to correlation, GBP/JPY's correlation should be put into context with respect to the GBP/USD. Most people just say the it is correlated by X percent but have not stated wether the correlation is positive or negative. For example, The EUR/USD is negatively correlated with the USD/CHF where as the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY is positively correlated.

When the EUR/USD is going up the USD/CHF is going down (Negative Correlation)
When the GBP/JPY is going up the GBP/USD is also going up (Positive Correlation)

The higher the correlation the stronger the correlation. Correlation must also be view in terms of time
GBP/JPY and GBP/USD are correlated as follows to date:

Yesterday, there was a negative correlation of -65%
Last Week, there was a positive correlation of +89%
Last Month, there was a positive correlation of +69%
First Quarter 2014, there was a positive correlation of +35%
Last Year 2013, there was a positive correlation of +92%

So overall its safe to say, the GBP/JPY can be used as a guide to trade the GBP/USD and vice versa.

Now to the meat of the matter: Real Time Analysis

10am Eastern Options Expiry USD/JPY for Wednesday, April 2, 2014

103.75/80 pay out 300 million (was triggered) signalling bullish continuation
103.00 pay out 400 million
102.80
102.60 pay out 150 million
102.50 pay out 750 million
102.35/40 pay out 500 million
102.30 pay out 200 million
102.00 pay out 500 million

The main driver of the GBP/JPY is the USD/JPY (major) because the USD/JPY (major) is the base currency for the GBP/JPY and the base currency will always have a significant effect on the cross.

The trend direction of the USD/JPY is bullish and this bullish trend has lifted the GBP/JPY.
The trend direction of the GBP/USD is also bullish and this bullish trend has also lifted the GBP/JPY

Hence the bullish GBP/JPY.

Like I said earlier, the secret to trading this pair successfully is knowing what the Significant Levels are and only trading those levels if you want to have a stress-free experience trading it.

The significant levels for the GBP/JPY and USD/JPY are:

GBP/JPY
Support
172.08
171.07

GBP/JPY
Resistance
172.623 breached
173.337 next to be tested
174.970

USD/JPY
Support
103.245 strong strong support
102.819
102.254

USD/JPY
Resistance
103.764 high taken out and stops above were hit (bullish continuation)
104.178
104.332
104.851 very significant, next to be tested.
105.160

Strong strong bids are at 1.0320 USD/JPY to support the bullish continuation which in turn supports the bullish continuation of the GBP/JPY.

Please take note of the very significant resistance levels and take some profit off before reaching each level.

Pay attention to any pullbacks on the USD/JPY and note, that if price action should reach 103.20 (because the bids at 103.20 are very very heavy), you should immediately buy the GBP/JPY for re-entry towards the next resistance target of the USD/JPY.

So while you are in your trade on the GBP/JPY, your exits in terms of take profits MUST be executed before the USD/JPY reaches its next level of resistance. Once the USD/JPY reaches its next level of resistance, you MUST IMMEDIATELY take some profit of your GBP/JPY long.

This is my analysis of the GBP/JPY compressed and written in simple form.

This analysis should be used as a guide to help with your own analysis and should not be traded blinded.

Hope this helps



HDA OUT


Off to bed

HDA, wow, this is some comprehensive review. thank you sir!

Will keep eyes open for the highlighted levels.

GJ does not offer much of a pullback entry currently.

ok here we go pullback to 20 please.

gj todays trading plan

dp @ 172.20, wp supports @ 171.70.

1) buy dips to 172.00-20 - tp 172.80 - 173.00 (higher prob)
2) buy lower dips to 171.80 sl below wp tp same as 1 (lower prob)

looks like the train departed and left us behind.

better luck next time.

Done. Next 173.40/20

Done. Triggered.

Done.