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  • #3,781
  • Mar 27, 2014 5:45pm Mar 27, 2014 5:45pm
gr8 comments
  • #3,782
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:13pm Mar 27, 2014 8:13pm
Quoting vox dei
EUR and CHF have both been weakening but USD has been weak too. It would be difficult for EURUSD to trend strongly in these conditions. The bulk of their weakness is relative to commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, and, surprise surprise, CAD).
Agreed Vox Dei. It appears commodity currencies strengthening against the majors is the way to go. It also appears that the ECB wants a weaker euro as well. One announcement from Draghi could hammer the euro hard

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,783
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:17pm Mar 27, 2014 8:17pm
Quoting tlpfx14
gr8 comments
Thanks TlpFx. The quality of this thread is an aggregation of the comments from yourself and other quality traders. We say it as we see it.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,784
  • Mar 29, 2014 11:08am Mar 29, 2014 11:08am
AudCad

While some weakness is showing more evidence is needed
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,785
  • Mar 29, 2014 11:31am Mar 29, 2014 11:31am
EurUsd

I am bearish this one
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,786
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:20pm Mar 29, 2014 12:20pm
EurAud long term

By the way EW analysis of the monthly chart shows 5 waves upmove. This should usually be followed by a 3 wave move down in retracement to around 1.4000 area. One more supportive reason for shorting. It is carry positive too so if you can hold for a month or more daily and price doesnt move against you then its extra profit

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,787
  • Mar 29, 2014 12:41pm Mar 29, 2014 12:41pm
usdjpy long term
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,788
  • Mar 29, 2014 1:00pm Mar 29, 2014 1:00pm
At the moment I like:

Buy: AUD, NZD, CAD
Sell: JPY, EUR, CHF

And dislike/distrust:

USD, GBP

The idea of buying any of the commodity currencies against JPY seems particularly attractive.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,789
  • Mar 29, 2014 1:21pm Mar 29, 2014 1:21pm
Sugar
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,790
  • Mar 29, 2014 2:16pm Mar 29, 2014 2:16pm
Robusta Coffee
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,791
  • Mar 29, 2014 2:28pm Mar 29, 2014 2:28pm
NASDAQ 100 weekly
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,792
  • Mar 29, 2014 2:42pm Mar 29, 2014 2:42pm
Crude Oil Weekly
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,793
  • Mar 31, 2014 4:07am Mar 31, 2014 4:07am
Trying to make sense of the US dollar.
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"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,794
  • Mar 31, 2014 3:28pm Mar 31, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting vox dei
Trying to make sense of the US dollar. {image} {image}

I am trying to make sense of the US$ too. I am bullish the $ until the euro makes a new high. Price move in the $ has been uninspiring

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,795
  • Mar 31, 2014 3:29pm Mar 31, 2014 3:29pm
CadChf

If you add stochastics to the chart there is bullish divergence which could limit the possible downmove
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,796
  • Mar 31, 2014 3:39pm Mar 31, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting vox dei
At the moment I like: Buy: AUD, NZD, CAD Sell: JPY, EUR, CHF And dislike/distrust: USD, GBP The idea of buying any of the commodity currencies against JPY seems particularly attractive.

I agree with your idea. I also think cad is the weakest of the commodity currencies. Jpy is weakening at the moment . xXXXjpy pairs are flying high today

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,797
  • Edited 7:46pm Mar 31, 2014 6:05pm | Edited 7:46pm
Corn:

Today's planting intentions report was bullish with the lowest acreage since 2010. I think you can look to buy any dips. Spring planting is off to a slow start(poor weather) & the later the corn gets in the ground the lower the yield usually is. Any more planting delays will add to my bullish feeling and if too late, more acres will get switched to beans. Exports have been very good lately. Hedge funds have switched from being heavily short to now long.

Seasonally, corn tends to trend higher over the spring months. USDA starts the year with a projected yield estimate (wild guess) which usually gets reduced as the weather isn't quite as perfect as they were anticipating.
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  • #3,798
  • Mar 31, 2014 6:07pm Mar 31, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I am trying to make sense of the US$ too. I am bullish the $ until the euro makes a new high. Price move in the $ has been uninspiring Olu
Despite the last USD charts posted, even if they materialize, I think a new EURUSD high remains very possible. Note that USD strength does not necessarily mean sell EURUSD. Ideally, some EUR weakness should co-occur. Both EUR and USD individual currency charts show long and medium-term uptrends respectively, meaning EURUSD ranging/relatively trendless as it has been for some time. More of the same is always likely.

Quoting Olu
{quote} I agree with your idea. I also think cad is the weakest of the commodity currencies. Jpy is weakening at the moment . xXXXjpy pairs are flying high today Olu
JPY: sales tax hike 1 april (HIGH risk event). Last one was in april 1997. USDJPY for instance, fell around 13% the 2 months immediately after, before recovering. Interestingly charts show otherwise. 'Everyone' is planning their reaction according to what happened back then, so it makes sense that the market would do something different now. Or, maybe it's just a fake out.
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"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,799
  • Mar 31, 2014 6:22pm Mar 31, 2014 6:22pm
Btw last week's S/W analysis gave:

1. AUD
2. GBP
3. NZD
4. CAD
5. USD
6. CHF
7. EUR
8. JPY

GBP strength basically came all in on Friday, hence my distrust (very likely unjustified as S/W is descriptive, not predictive). USD was middle hence my lack of interest. All others looked OK because they were more extreme and gradual.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,800
  • Mar 31, 2014 6:23pm Mar 31, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting vox dei
At the moment I like: Buy: AUD, NZD, CAD Sell: JPY, EUR, CHF And dislike/distrust: USD, GBP The idea of buying any of the commodity currencies against JPY seems particularly attractive.
AUD:
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