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AUD/JPY

  • #921
  • Mar 28, 2014 12:03pm Mar 28, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} If you have a predetermined risk, stay with your plan. If you have no predetermined risk, get out now at the market
Well, I've been waiting for a month so of course i will just hang there to gwt it over. Just grinding away...
  • #922
  • Mar 28, 2014 3:42pm Mar 28, 2014 3:42pm
So A/J was the most profitable trade (long) this week.

A couple of things to watch. Chart below.

If price continues past mid october high, that will be a higher high confirming the upward trend from levels 87.00

But it seems as though price is already over extended and a larger correction is due before we get any more pumped to the upside. I personally believe we will see price correct before we see further clarity in the medium term. Also notice how price traded within a rectangular range from Sept 2013 then in October we saw a huge rejection of the upward move back into the ranging rectangle. Then in February we get more of a sustained breach of the rectangle floor for about a week only for the pair to trade back into its rectangular range to the upside. We are now at a Fib resistance level with price overextended and people already clamoring overbought conditions. Like I said, if this thing posts a higher high, expect the longer term bias to remain to the upside and the retrace from this thrust upwards limited. If not expect an even larger correction to see price again well within the rectangular range.
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The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #923
  • Mar 30, 2014 4:43am Mar 30, 2014 4:43am
Weekly A/J from 2009
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The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #924
  • Mar 31, 2014 9:43am Mar 31, 2014 9:43am
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} waiting for a pull back if any - flat {image}
what can you describe for AUDJPY now
  • #925
  • Mar 31, 2014 10:36pm Mar 31, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting muxchlass
{quote} what can you describe for AUDJPY now
Not much, other than it wants to RIP through on the upside
  • #926
  • Apr 1, 2014 9:41pm Apr 1, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} Not much, other than it wants to RIP through on the upside
AJ been stubborn to fall
  • #927
  • Apr 1, 2014 10:15pm Apr 1, 2014 10:15pm
If the A/J MUST complete its pattern it wont be too far. It might not even get there the way things are looking for the AUD
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The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #928
  • Apr 1, 2014 10:53pm Apr 1, 2014 10:53pm
Looks like alot of you guys in here are not a fan of AJ huh?

I'm a newbie and find AJ to be more predictable than others.
  • #929
  • Apr 2, 2014 5:18am Apr 2, 2014 5:18am
O.k so, here is my AJ price Analysis.

While I have posted several pics of the A/J weekly showing an upward trending pinbar. I held reservations regarding that price translation and instead found out WHY we had a serious run up in price from Sept 2012 onto a little past the 1st QTR of 2013.

Long story short, here is what I am seeing on this pair.

1. The pair has been traveling UPWARDS from a massive run in 2009. Which is fine, as this pair has been traveling in waves ever since 1994. Since then, the pair itself has been peaking at a trading band 107 and 100. Once this pair hits those zones (peaked 3 times) it sold off harder than ron jeremys cock.

2. Since 2009, we have a SINGLE run up (1st Leg) from the lows in 2009 to a little past the 1st Qtr of 2010. Right after, there is consolidation (2nd Leg). O.k this consolidation is an inverted H&S pattern that begins from 1st QTR 2010 for 3 years to 1 QTR 2013. Notice the HEIGHT of the H&S pattern. The height of the H&S pattern is the exact height you see from the breakout in Dec 2013 all the way up to the end of the 1st qtr (3rd Leg).

3. Once it broke into the (as noted in #1) peaking band it sold off hard to bounce off the neckline of the 3 year H&S pattern slightly breaching it to consolidate right to where it is now.

Now, as of this year, this pair has been rallying pretty hard from the bounce off the neckline support. RSI is showing that it is near overbought levels. It IS POSSIBLE that this pair is posting another H&S top to revert back into its wave to the downside. But the breach of the most recent high back in Oct 2013 does make me suspect about how high it will go. But as it looks it wont be going up too far now.

Anyway, there is a ton of downside potential for this pair. I am currently in a short but I play very small. I knew from the onset that JPY moves very slowly so you have to be patient. I will be mapping out some fib levels to see just how high this thing can go but it is near my SL level so if it hits I wont be too surprised if it ecks out its last bit of steam within the next 100 pips or so.

Anyway, please share your thoughts should you guys have any.
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The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #930
  • Apr 2, 2014 5:46am Apr 2, 2014 5:46am
Quoting Neqrotik
O.k so, here is my AJ price Analysis. While I have posted several pics of the A/J weekly showing an upward trending pinbar. I held reservations regarding that price translation and instead found out WHY we had a serious run up in price from Sept 2012 onto a little past the 1st QTR of 2013. Long story short, here is what I am seeing on this pair. 1. The pair has been traveling UPWARDS from a massive run in 2009. Which is fine, as this pair has been traveling in waves ever since 1994. Since then, the pair itself has been peaking at a trading band...
Personally i feel AUD is has been not doing so well. But JPY weaken in a row. As well as commods has been higher. It might have some correction that for sure. Down 300 pips won't be surprised to me if everything place in shape.
  • #931
  • Apr 2, 2014 5:46am Apr 2, 2014 5:46am
Yeah if this pair breaches 95.9 where it is now then it is sure to fall on 96.99 right in that neighborhood. So the next 100 pips is a serious red zone for this pair.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #932
  • Apr 2, 2014 6:02am Apr 2, 2014 6:02am
Quoting Care forex
{quote} Personally i feel AUD is has been not doing so well. But JPY weaken in a row. As well as commods has been higher. It might have some correction that for sure. Down 300 pips won't be surprised to me if everything place in shape.
Uhhh....AUD has gained 1100+ pips on GBP. It is in a strong place imo.Then again I am expecting a retrace as well.
  • #933
  • Apr 2, 2014 6:16am Apr 2, 2014 6:16am
Yeah retracement soon i feel too. When JPY strengthen can be crazy too.
  • #934
  • Apr 2, 2014 6:21am Apr 2, 2014 6:21am
Quoting Care forex
Yeah retracement soon i feel too. When JPY strengthen can be crazy too.

From the safe haven side i think this pair has some great potential. On the policy side while there have been some outbursts of BoJ officials reluctant to continued easing, it looks like the market is expecting more. Which I believe is being priced in. However the Safe-haven side this pair has been suffering.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #935
  • Apr 2, 2014 6:26am Apr 2, 2014 6:26am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} From the safe haven side i think this pair has some great potential. On the policy side while there have been some outbursts of BoJ officials reluctant to continued easing, it looks like the market is expecting more. Which I believe is being priced in. However the Safe-haven side this pair has been suffering.
Yes agree. Totally brutal. Anyway i am still believe in this pairs will go down down down-as in for longer term. Mid term 200 pips correction? The lower support at which level?
  • #936
  • Apr 2, 2014 7:38am Apr 2, 2014 7:38am
Looks like its hitting some sell orders here. Who knows if there are many more bids out there to fill them all and some. AUD will be interesting to watch during this session.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #937
  • Apr 2, 2014 8:11am Apr 2, 2014 8:11am
It will be interesting to see where this hourly candle closes. Looks like a battle zone on the 1H trendline . I would love to see a convincing close below this support considering I have been holding on to my shorts like a fat kid holds on to a cheesburger
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #938
  • Apr 2, 2014 8:33am Apr 2, 2014 8:33am
Quoting Expo33
It will be interesting to see where this hourly candle closes. Looks like a battle zone on the 1H trendline . I would love to see a convincing close below this support considering I have been holding on to my shorts like a fat kid holds on to a cheesburger {image}
Nice one. If it break below, where the bottom will we see?
  • #939
  • Apr 2, 2014 9:47am Apr 2, 2014 9:47am
Quoting Care forex
{quote} Nice one. If it break below, where the bottom will we see?

Might want to see another hour close...hehe. And maybe another. Alot of indecision at this level in this pair. The bottom shouldnt be too far. It is trading in a rising channel so....that would be the first stopping point for sure IMO
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #940
  • Apr 2, 2014 9:51am Apr 2, 2014 9:51am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Might want to see another hour close...hehe. And maybe another. Alot of indecision at this level in this pair. The bottom shouldnt be too far. It is trading in a rising channel so....that would be the first stopping point for sure IMO
Wish USD get strengthen more so that aud will down too
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