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NZD/USD

  • #3,961
  • Mar 28, 2014 3:53am Mar 28, 2014 3:53am
So nzdusd did damage 0.8675 resistance level of 04/2013, what next more up? what do u think guys?
Forex
  • #3,962
  • Mar 28, 2014 4:53am Mar 28, 2014 4:53am
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  • #3,963
  • Mar 28, 2014 5:00am Mar 28, 2014 5:00am
Bam, another 10%, I saw that drop around midnight and I had to jump in for another 20 pips. That put me over 400% for March. Now if I can only figure out how to do this every month. http://www.forexfactory.com/jaws810?__r=8124#81
  • #3,964
  • Mar 28, 2014 5:26am Mar 28, 2014 5:26am
Quoting jaws810
{quote} I have a fairly small account atm and my account is leveraged at 50:1 and I am currently using 90% of my available margin and risking about 1/3 of my account to get those 20 pips, as my account grows I plan to gradually decrease my margin use down to about 20% which would decrease my risk to about 7% per trade by the time I get to the $10K level. BTW, I don't think 50:1 leverage is really that high considering my first account was 1000:1 back in 2006, that was crazy, account blown several times before I learned that excessive leverage isn't...
so basically you are a poker player than a trader. davit gave you good advice and you are ridiculing him
  • #3,965
  • Mar 28, 2014 5:41am Mar 28, 2014 5:41am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} so basically you are a poker player than a trader. davit gave you good advice and you are ridiculing him
No ridicule I just stated what I'm doing and how I think. BTW, your probably right, my wife always tells me I didn't give up gambling, Forex is my new game.
  • #3,966
  • Mar 28, 2014 5:47am Mar 28, 2014 5:47am
Quoting jaws810
{quote} No ridicule I just stated what I'm doing and how I think. BTW, your probably right, my wife always tells me I didn't give up gambling, Forex is my new game.
Perhaps we should open a Gambler's Anonymous thread
  • #3,967
  • Mar 28, 2014 5:53am Mar 28, 2014 5:53am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Perhaps we should open a Gambler's Anonymous thread
LOL, I'd be willing to bet many traders are/were gamblers of some kind.
  • #3,968
  • Mar 28, 2014 6:22am Mar 28, 2014 6:22am
Looks like it's getting ready for another bull run to the top, but it's Friday so I'm going to wait till after noon NY time to make another trade, if the price is near the daily low I'll go long then.
  • #3,969
  • Mar 28, 2014 7:53am Mar 28, 2014 7:53am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Perhaps we should open a Gambler's Anonymous thread
I don't see jaws as classic forex gambler. If he STRICTLY uses 20pip TP / 60 pip SL technique, than it is trading, not gambling yet.

Gambling part is cos of overleverage. If his 20 pip wins mean +10%, then 60 pip loss would mean -30%, which is waaaaaaay past any recommended trading. Imagine losing 3 or 4 such trades in a row ... and such streaks always come.
  • #3,970
  • Mar 28, 2014 11:38am Mar 28, 2014 11:38am
Hopefully, the bull run idea was not acted on. May get a slight bounce off of support in the coming hours, but that March 2013 high is way too stout to call a continued bull run after such a long run up. Please tell me you stayed out.
  • #3,971
  • Mar 28, 2014 11:39am Mar 28, 2014 11:39am
How are NZ Bears doing? Nice pressure relief next stop is taking 8650
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,972
  • Mar 28, 2014 11:48am Mar 28, 2014 11:48am
Quoting Davit
How are NZ Bears doing? Nice pressure relief next stop is taking 8650
Patiently waiting for the end of the retracement to buy delicious dips.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,973
  • Mar 28, 2014 12:02pm Mar 28, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Patiently waiting for the end of the retracement to buy delicious dips.
8580 will be fine for both of us
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,974
  • Mar 28, 2014 12:07pm Mar 28, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} 8580 will be fine for both of us
yep, looks like it ^^
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,975
  • Edited 1:16pm Mar 28, 2014 12:42pm | Edited 1:16pm
Quoting Davit
next stop is taking 8650
Nice call

Quoting brruss1
Hopefully, the bull run idea was not acted on. May get a slight bounce off of support in the coming hours, but that March 2013 high is way too stout to call a continued bull run after such a long run up. Please tell me you stayed out.
No, it looks like those bulls ran into a large BEARicade. I knew on Friday there could be a bigger drop at the NY open, that's why I said I was going to wait till after noon NY time, I just got in at 8658. It seems to be a pattern when the weekend close is near Friday's low Monday is for the bulls, if weekend close is near Friday's high Monday is for the bears. It's held true all year and back into last year. Although I could have waited for a better price, I'll collect the interest over the weekend and likely take my 20 pips early Monday morning.
  • #3,976
  • Edited 2:36pm Mar 28, 2014 2:15pm | Edited 2:36pm
Monday is important. Because.
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As i said before. NZD is overvalued according to Real ex. rate based on CPI. so i wait bearish pattern soon. but it is an idea that must been confirm by the Market. Look at picture. when index touch 1.10 price come back. end of 2013 index was 1.12. maybe now it is at 1.15 level. look at 2009 level 0.80 that was mean that NZD undervalue at that time according to Real ex. rate based on CPI. so price went up.

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  • #3,977
  • Mar 28, 2014 2:46pm Mar 28, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} I don't see jaws as classic forex gambler. If he STRICTLY uses 20pip TP / 60 pip SL technique, than it is trading, not gambling yet. Gambling part is cos of overleverage. If his 20 pip wins mean +10%, then 60 pip loss would mean -30%, which is waaaaaaay past any recommended trading. Imagine losing 3 or 4 such trades in a row ... and such streaks always come.
I tried many strategies the loss is higher then reward so you need to have a high win ratio because each loss takes out 3 wins.. so if you have 30 wins and 10 losses you Broke even.. Not so good when you look at it from that point. I calculated data, because my system easy brings 20-30 pips but if my stop is even 1:2 its still difficult means you have to have a high win ratio ALL the time.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,978
  • Mar 28, 2014 10:52pm Mar 28, 2014 10:52pm
not sure but start thinking on Bearish Shark at the moment brother.. what d u think ?

looking for some opinion here ...

*** the ew is not so perfect also for 1 & 4 rule
Quoting Davit
How are NZ Bears doing? Nice pressure relief next stop is taking 8650
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not euphoria follower
  • #3,979
  • Mar 28, 2014 11:40pm Mar 28, 2014 11:40pm
Quoting iqyu5an
not sure but start thinking on Bearish Shark at the moment brother.. what d u think ? looking for some opinion here ... *** the ew is not so perfect also for 1 & 4 rule {quote} {image}
Hi bro
I can see next week 8580 minimum or lower by Fri NFP event which is most likely will be green
I am holding for 8535 which is previous support.
I am comfortable on my short positions which is 10 to be exact.Harmonically its little messy but with expensive swap its not wise holding too long.
8580 8535 are key numbers to me.If you are shorting key is quick exit.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,980
  • Edited 12:23am Mar 29, 2014 12:13am | Edited 12:23am
Quoting iqyu5an
not sure but start thinking on Bearish Shark at the moment brother.. what d u think ? looking for some opinion here ... *** the ew is not so perfect also for 1 & 4 rule {quote} {image}
That's a good looking chart u got there, that got me into thinking.

Despite fundamental views of further advance in NZDUSD, technically, this pair is set for reversal :
1. your 1&4 overlapping pattern is actually a valid EW Ending Diagonal (occurs either in 5th wave or c wave, in this case c wave) which is complete and may reverse anytime.
2. It also completes a C wave (red) of a larger triangular pattern.
3. The good news is that one can take a good guess where the next leg of the triangle will go, for a target. (for further discussion)
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