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AUD/USD

  • #75,381
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:59pm Mar 27, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Same. This is certainly 1 event I wont forget about. End of quarter. AUD Exporters repatriating from CNY, JPY and any other currency to AUD. Banks know this, so they buy AUD ahead of their clients and stand ready to sell their client AUD at inflated prices. Just a theory. If it doesnt make sense someone let me know. As for RBA, with this rise continuation there sure as hell wont be a rate hike. As Stevens said in his speech recently. "IF THIS POSITIVE TREND IN DATA CONTINUES we expect to see interest rate stabilization." Not his exact words...
No I definitely think quarter end flows are a big deal right now especially given low volume markets and CFTC shorts getting caught off sides. I am mainly proceeding with the idea that China is now in uncharted territory as the massive inflows into CNY reverse. I think there will be a stark difference in their economic data before and after this round of CNY devaluation that started in February.

RBA may have stopped jawboning, but they dont want this pushing back to parity obviously. The fed is moving toward rate hikes, etc. etc.


Really just a risk management game at this point. 0.9300-0.9350. was the sell zone for me
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #75,382
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:04pm Mar 27, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting 50pipsperday
Just went long 3 lots 9286 Come at me bro.
Adding 8 lots more and move stop loss to yesterday high.

About calling my boss to quit the job next week.

come at me bro !!!
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  • #75,383
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:19pm Mar 27, 2014 10:19pm
Quoting ozboy
{quote} Adding 8 lots more and move stop loss to yesterday high. About calling my boss to quit the job next week. come at me bro !!! {image}
also added 1 lot 9286
come at me bro !!!
  • #75,384
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:29pm Mar 27, 2014 10:29pm
Quoting angelpatrici
{quote} also added 1 lot 9286 come at me bro !!!
tighten stop loss in case shit may happen
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  • #75,385
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:37pm Mar 27, 2014 10:37pm
Quoting ozboy
{quote} tighten stop loss in case shit may happen {image}
yes tight sl 9266
  • #75,386
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:39pm Mar 27, 2014 10:39pm
come at me bro !!
  • #75,387
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:39pm Mar 27, 2014 10:39pm
Quoting Citiboy
Going to start building shorts here at 0.9300.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #75,388
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:09pm Mar 27, 2014 11:09pm
Quoting ozboy
{quote} tighten stop loss in case shit may happen {image}
Well did you hit the "shit happens" point yet ?
  • #75,389
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:12pm Mar 27, 2014 11:12pm
Quoting digger1
{quote} Well did you hit the "shit happens" point yet ?
about to hit .. few pips more
  • #75,390
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:12pm Mar 27, 2014 11:12pm
That last move up was because of USD weakness rather than AUD strength - I believe. I don't think uptrend has gained sufficient traction to warrant this high price. Only if price rapidly dips below that original price point of .9260 would another move up be considered by market. That's my take anyway.
  • #75,391
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:15pm Mar 27, 2014 11:15pm
Quoting ozboy
{quote} about to hit .. few pips more
Just a little aud weakness creeping in , aud yen had a nice little run down , still dropping , the euraud has had its biggest bounce in 2 days, be careful man
  • #75,392
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:25pm Mar 27, 2014 11:25pm
Quoting digger1
{quote} Just a little aud weakness creeping in , aud yen had a nice little run down , still dropping , the euraud has had its biggest bounce in 2 days, be careful man
Yeah. I also noticed that bounce in EUR/AUD. That retracement of the AUD is quite potent.
  • #75,393
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:28pm Mar 27, 2014 11:28pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Yeah. I also noticed that bounce in EUR/AUD. That retracement of the AUD is quite potent.
Yea , that tagged the daily 200 sma.
  • #75,394
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:33pm Mar 27, 2014 11:33pm
Quoting digger1
{quote} Yea , that tagged the daily 200 sma.
Whoa! Look at that! I'd bow to anyone who traded that. Seems to be heading towards a phase of consolidation. We'll see.
  • #75,395
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:36pm Mar 27, 2014 11:36pm
hmms.. someone traded it right to the dot... placed a buy limit at 1.47850.. superb
  • #75,396
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:37pm Mar 27, 2014 11:37pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Whoa! Look at that! I'd bow to anyone who traded that.
lol, I wish I would have closed all my shorts there but did take a scalp long there not right at it but about 10 pips off the low for 25
  • #75,397
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:41pm Mar 27, 2014 11:41pm
Quoting belgeran
hmms.. someone traded it right to the dot... placed a buy limit at 1.47850.. superb
  • #75,398
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:44pm Mar 27, 2014 11:44pm
Closing out some of my 0.9293 shorts here at 0.9265.

On the recent USD weakness... very interesting. I would bet that CTFC hedge funds are now net short the Dollar (not intentionally). Short USD seems like a bad idea at the moment for obvious reasons, but this all seems more momentum driven than anything. EUR was rallying for months and saw the highest net longs in months as of last weeks COT report.

Meanwhile AUD has now likely flushed most shorts and net positioning is probably flat. I would also imagine that over aggressive CAD sellers also just got owned this week and have pared back shorts to more reasonable sizes. So now hedge funds are sitting long EUR and GBP, flat AUD and small shorts in CAD. Net net the momentum has carried them into moderate longs in EUR, GBP, CHF, NZD while flat AUD and small shorts in CAD after this cleanout.

At the moment markets seem extremely vulnerable to an NFP suprise next week....

Now markets have a challenge in expressing USD longs. The RBA is no longer dovish, Canada doesnt have the bad numbers to support being dovish... so two of the main USD longs have been removed. All we are left with for short targets is EUR, and I think there will be a rotation now from CAD and AUD shorts into EUR shorts for those that want to express USD longs.

Until there is a shift in China sentiment, CAD and AUD may do okay. But the USD side will strong if NFP comes out on the upside.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #75,399
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:52pm Mar 27, 2014 11:52pm
By the looks , Im sure the cad stung some accts pretty good this week for sure.
  • #75,400
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:55pm Mar 27, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Whoa! Look at that! I'd bow to anyone who traded that. Seems to be heading towards a phase of consolidation. We'll see.
I'm sure with quarters end there will be some consolidation showing up, but who knows anything is possible
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