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NZD/USD

  • #3,941
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:10am Mar 27, 2014 10:10am
I hope this drops 300 pips
  • #3,942
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:23am Mar 27, 2014 10:23am
Quoting strat1x
I hope this drops 300 pips
Of course it will, but the question is, will it go up 200 pips first?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,943
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:53am Mar 27, 2014 10:53am
any one have analysis in nsdusd , its in resistance 0.86800 .. hope it will back , i follow one thing it's up & down with AUD , don't sure but have seen maximum day .. so in confused .. if any one have please share ..

Thank you
Shahed
  • #3,944
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:40pm Mar 27, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Euro can still go to 1.36 and have a target at 1.41 GU bounce from 1,6464 can go to 1.7150 to be exact. The best thing you can do is always listen to yourself so I cannot say you or me are right about market's direction but we are both right cause we will both ignore those views and stick with plan. See, thats call diplomacy in my books.

agree stick to your trading plan.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,945
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:44pm Mar 27, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Euro can still go to 1.36 and have a target at 1.41 GU bounce from 1,6464 can go to 1.7150 to be exact. The best thing you can do is always listen to yourself so I cannot say you or me are right about market's direction but we are both right cause we will both ignore those views and stick with plan. See, thats call diplomacy in my books.
Well said and good luck to both of you.

  • #3,946
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:48pm Mar 27, 2014 12:48pm
What I don't understand reading about NZ economy is this.
NZB wants rate hike to curve housing market and inflation and Exports need cheaper currency to be competitive.
With another rate hike we could see 87+ and pretty much in parity with Aussie dollar with Kiwi. Australia still is one of biggest trading partners next with China and that sure will hurt.
It looks like NZ money policy is off track.You can't raise rates and expect lower currency.
My outlook is any further rate hike is priced in on Kiwi.

My only regret is shorting Kiwi is expensive on swap side.I have been trading GU and EU shorts to remedy this.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,947
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:55pm Mar 27, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting Davit
What I don't understand reading about NZ economy is this. NZB wants rate hike to curve housing market and inflation and Exports need cheaper currency to be competitive. With another rate hike we could see 87+ and pretty much in parity with Aussie dollar with Kiwi. Australia still is one of biggest trading partners next with China and that sure will hurt. It looks like NZ money policy is off track.You can't raise rates and expect lower currency. My outlook is any further rate hike is priced in on Kiwi.
The rates are for controlling inflation (if it costs more to borrow money, you will likely spend less).

If inflation is high, that shows demand is 'to' high ... no matter the exchange rate, the economy is on fire! so cooling off the economy (lowering inflation/keeping control) is more important than the exchange rate.

Most governments (swiss for example) have benefits for exporters to supplement their exchange rate ... kinda a 'here ya go' free money. Just like a tariff is a benefit to domestic producers, there are some programs that are benefits for exporters when the exchange rate is high.

And a high exchange rate isn't always bad ... it makes importer energy and other commodities cheaper and raises wages/purchaser power of individuals.
  • #3,948
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:58pm Mar 27, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting Davit
What I don't understand reading about NZ economy is this. NZB wants rate hike to curve housing market and inflation and Exports need cheaper currency to be competitive. With another rate hike we could see 87+ and pretty much in parity with Aussie dollar with Kiwi. Australia still is one of biggest trading partners next with China and that sure will hurt. It looks like NZ money policy is off track.You can't raise rates and expect lower currency. My outlook is any further rate hike is priced in on Kiwi.
I also think the market is now focused on a mid 2015 hike from the fed USD is bound to start gaining support as yield adjusts and positions adjust for a yield driven rise in the USD. I think this will especially effect the KIWI as probably the most high priced against the USD.
  • #3,949
  • Mar 27, 2014 1:02pm Mar 27, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} The rates are for controlling inflation (if it costs more to borrow money, you will likely spend less). If inflation is high, that shows demand is 'to' high ... no matter the exchange rate, the economy is on fire! so cooling off the economy (lowering inflation/keeping control) is more important than the exchange rate. Most governments (swiss for example) have benefits for exporters to supplement their exchange rate ... kinda a 'here ya go' free money. Just like a tariff is a benefit to domestic producers, there are some programs that are...
Slow Trader
I enjoy reading your posts.Sometimes fundamentals in forex don't exactly produce desired effect.I very much believe Kiwi is topping off no matter any rate hike in the future. 2011 8840 high was result of economical meltdown and those conditions are not on the horizon now.
Harmonically we have a nice 1.618 extension which is hard to break.

I also use limit orders as well and approach market similarly.I use BB 2nd 3rd deviations as bench mark.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,950
  • Mar 27, 2014 1:39pm Mar 27, 2014 1:39pm
Gidday NZ

Hi Davit

Got a we short in at the top also

an a few lower down

If it breaks 0.87

The greedy bastards are holding there longs

an buying on dips
  • #3,951
  • Mar 27, 2014 1:54pm Mar 27, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Slow Trader I enjoy reading your posts.Sometimes fundamentals in forex don't exactly produce desired effect.I very much believe Kiwi is topping off no matter any rate hike in the future. 2011 8840 high was result of economical meltdown and those conditions are not on the horizon now. Harmonically we have a nice 1.618 extension which is hard to break. I also use limit orders as well and approach market similarly.I use BB 2nd 3rd deviations as bench mark. Regards
1.618 extension is just a mathematical equation, it isn't hard to break ... nothing is, just numbers.

A lot of people have the same long term view as Kiwi as you, that is should go down, and that alone should say enough ... so many people want it to go down, or worse, think that it should .. that it probably won't.

If Kiwi reaches 1.00 NZDUSD in 2016, people are going to say 'oh man, this should be at .90' ... so it is all nominal ...

I don't care if Kiwi is at .2 or 22.00, look at the chart and find resistance and support.

What if a higher kiwi is the result of 3 Trillion dollars + in new monies + new debts?

If you trade me one 'Davit' dollar for one 'slow-trader' dollar, than that is an equal trade. If I find out later on that you are just printing and using 'Davit' dollars, I am going to charge you more for my 'slow-trader' dollars by whatever amoutn you printed. If we both had 10 and you printed 5 more, I am going to charge you 1.5 'Davit' dollars for 1.0 'slow-trader' dollars .. (15/10) ... same things goes with currency between countries.
  • #3,952
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:18pm Mar 27, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Slow Trader I enjoy reading your posts.Sometimes fundamentals in forex don't exactly produce desired effect.I very much believe Kiwi is topping off no matter any rate hike in the future. 2011 8840 high was result of economical meltdown and those conditions are not on the horizon now. Harmonically we have a nice 1.618 extension which is hard to break. I also use limit orders as well and approach market similarly.I use BB 2nd 3rd deviations as bench mark. Regards
Hey Davit good to see you again! How are things?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #3,953
  • Mar 27, 2014 5:12pm Mar 27, 2014 5:12pm
Does anyone else find it weird that NZD started to rally a few hrs after the release(s) yesterday? Maybe market waited till after FOMC statement?
  • #3,954
  • Edited 8:11pm Mar 27, 2014 7:58pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
Does anyone else find it weird that NZD started to rally a few hrs after the release(s) yesterday? Maybe market waited till after FOMC statement?
Im new comer here..how do you do didg. Im trying my first post
Nzd rally since a few weeks ago, isnt it?you better read thread post from a week ago, that will explain enough..explain from many different view
  • #3,955
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:59pm Mar 27, 2014 7:59pm
How's everybody doing, I just racked up another 10%+ for a total of 82.3% this week. I think I'm done for the week, unless there is a big dip tomorrow afternoon, which I will buy and hold until next week. http://www.forexfactory.com/jaws810?__r=8124#81
  • #3,956
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:07pm Mar 27, 2014 10:07pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Hey Davit good to see you again! How are things?
Hi bro
Just got back from work.
I am glad I can post again.I added 2 more shorts at 8690.I increased my equity over 30% in 3 months which is fine to me.Targetting building my equity in 3yrs to be able to trade full time.
I hope you are doing fine.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,957
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:43pm Mar 27, 2014 10:43pm
Quoting jaws810
How's everybody doing, I just racked up another 10%+ for a total of 82.3% this week. I think I'm done for the week, unless there is a big dip tomorrow afternoon, which I will buy and hold until next week. http://www.forexfactory.com/jaws810?__r=8124#81
Impressive results but not impressed with gains. 20pips equaling 10% equity means you are simply high leveraged.While taking 100 to 400 is fun and exciting approaching same mentality on 10k account can wipe you out pretty quick as well.
My advise is don't get carried away on leverage gains.Easy come easy bust is not what you want to achieve.
When I was new at this this kind of equity gains was impressive but now I can see it becoming a handicap because you are building a dangerous mental outlook to trading.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,958
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:09pm Mar 27, 2014 11:09pm
Quoting tatopermanen
{quote} Im new comer here..how do you do didg. Im trying my first post Nzd rally since a few weeks ago, isnt it?you better read thread post from a week ago, that will explain enough..explain from many different view
Welcome. Cheers.
  • #3,959
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:34pm Mar 27, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Impressive results but not impressed with gains. 20pips equaling 10% equity means you are simply high leveraged.While taking 100 to 400 is fun and exciting approaching same mentality on 10k account can wipe you out pretty quick as well. My advise is don't get carried away on leverage gains.Easy come easy bust is not what you want to achieve. When I was new at this this kind of equity gains was impressive but now I can see it becoming a handicap because you are building a dangerous mental outlook to trading. Regards
I have a fairly small account atm and my account is leveraged at 50:1 and I am currently using 90% of my available margin and risking about 1/3 of my account to get those 20 pips, as my account grows I plan to gradually decrease my margin use down to about 20% which would decrease my risk to about 7% per trade by the time I get to the $10K level. BTW, I don't think 50:1 leverage is really that high considering my first account was 1000:1 back in 2006, that was crazy, account blown several times before I learned that excessive leverage isn't necessarily a good thing.
My goal is to get in and out as fast as possible, the longer you're exposed to the market the higher the chances it will turn against you, so I chose to go for 20 pips at a time with a goal of making each of those pips worth around $100. Mentally I don't worry about the money I ignore it, it's just pips to me they could be worth $1 or $1000 they're still just pips. I used to gamble, I wasn't playing for money I was playing to win so many chips before I left the table, same concept. I count the money after I leave the table.
  • #3,960
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:41pm Mar 27, 2014 11:41pm
Quoting jaws810
{quote} I have a fairly small account atm and my account is leveraged at 50:1 and I am currently using 90% of my available margin and risking about 1/3 of my account to get those 20 pips, as my account grows I plan to gradually decrease my margin use down to about 20% which would decrease my risk to about 7% per trade by the time I get to the $10K level. BTW, I don't think 50:1 leverage is really that high considering my first account was 1000:1 back in 2006, that was crazy, account blown several times before I learned that excessive leverage isn't...
That's good Jaw you know what you are doing and you are not new to this.I sport gambled for 5yrs.
Green pips
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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