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AUD/USD

  • #75,361
  • Mar 27, 2014 7:49pm Mar 27, 2014 7:49pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Today is end of month, friday. I agree there will be some profit taking, asian session will confirm it. Big Boys always greedy. Out my long. Begin with smallest short now. Wish you all good luck... and to me too.. ^_^ (we all need it)
I would rather to wait until it break the trendline (circle) 1st b4 make any move...Anyway gud luck to u...
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Peace Yo!
  • #75,362
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:16pm Mar 27, 2014 8:16pm
Quoting jimmij
{quote} From now on only north direction is allowed, each and every day with white candle, there wont be any pull back up to 1.20, So that all of you guys can take longs and be rich in a short period of time.
Yeah, you'd think even if it goes higher, it would pull back a bit.

Either way this isn't going to last and eventually the people who stay long will be very bitter.

We just had an hourly close below the high of day with a nice little wick. Maybe the start of a pull back to .86 -- .8615 for NU.
  • #75,363
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:18pm Mar 27, 2014 8:18pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Yeah, you'd think even if it goes higher, it would pull back a bit. Either way this isn't going to last and eventually the people who stay long will be very bitter. We just had an hourly close below the high of day with a nice little wick. Maybe the start of a pull back to .86 -- .8615 for NU.

  • #75,364
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:27pm Mar 27, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Yeah, you'd think even if it goes higher, it would pull back a bit. Either way this isn't going to last and eventually the people who stay long will be very bitter. We just had an hourly close below the high of day with a nice little wick. Maybe the start of a pull back to .86 -- .8615 for NU.
I think 0.86 is too much... i was thinking retrace to 0.9170...Next week will have interest rate decision... RBA statement "period of stability of interest rate"...
Peace Yo!
  • #75,365
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:28pm Mar 27, 2014 8:28pm
Quoting jimmij
{quote} From now on only north direction is allowed, each and every day with white candle, there wont be any pull back up to 1.20, So that all of you guys can take longs and be rich in a short period of time.
at current rate of increase, it will be 95 by end of next week

hardly any red h4 candles, straight up 90 degrees, no retrace.
  • #75,366
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:28pm Mar 27, 2014 8:28pm
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014...aussie-dollar/
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #75,367
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:36pm Mar 27, 2014 8:36pm
Quoting Neqrotik
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014...aussie-dollar/
Don't trust any noise ... Just ur chart only !!! Keep buying Aussie dollar and trailing your stoploss every move.
It s hurt ur account if u try to catch the peak of this move. I have had a lot of pain of doing that several times already.
i rather be in short position a bit late, than cut loss
  • #75,368
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:40pm Mar 27, 2014 8:40pm
And anything against the bigger players are suicide.
  • #75,369
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:45pm Mar 27, 2014 8:45pm
9335 next target
  • #75,370
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:53pm Mar 27, 2014 8:53pm
Haha guess NZD/USD going to go to 8750 today, thing is never going to stop going up
  • #75,371
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:08pm Mar 27, 2014 9:08pm
Australian dollar 'beyond the tipping point' for exporters: survey

Australia's dollar has surged past the tipping point that exporters feel they can comfortably grow their businesses, according to a Citi survey. The Aussie hit a fresh four month high overnight, fetching 92.72 US cents, up from 92.43 cents on Thursday.

Citi and East Partners latest quarterly trade and finance index found that traders started feeling pain when the local unit breached 92 US cents.
''We're beyond the tipping point of equilibrium between importer and exporter sentiment,'' Citi's trade and treasury solutions head Scott Southall said.

Most importers and exporters say their ideal level for the dollar is 85 to 90 US cents. But the competitiveness of exporters is hindered when the Aussie rises above 92 US cents, the survey found.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz2xDeaXQGx
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #75,372
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:11pm Mar 27, 2014 9:11pm
RBA is coming in next week. Anybody have any idea on this?
  • #75,373
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:14pm Mar 27, 2014 9:14pm
Quoting Ck87
Haha guess NZD/USD going to go to 8750 today, thing is never going to stop going up
agreed. the carry trade bubble.

ive seen this run before, last on JPY pairs back in 2012. it went from 76 to 100 in a single straight line without any significant retraces. thats a 30% increase in a currency in just a few months! carry trade bubble because us interest rates didnt increase.

this has gone from 80 to 87 in a straight line. prolly only half way through. overall up about 10% so far , prolly another 10-15% to go. it could even make its way above parity next year and a 5% premium to the AUD. the carry trade bubble is powerful but beware when it bursts(see AUD,CAD last 12 months)
  • #75,374
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:15pm Mar 27, 2014 9:15pm
Going to start building shorts here at 0.9300.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #75,375
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:37pm Mar 27, 2014 9:37pm
Many traders might look at this retracement and think the trend is no longer down, but...

(Weekly Chart)

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  • #75,376
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:38pm Mar 27, 2014 9:38pm
Quoting Citiboy
Going to start building shorts here at 0.9300.
Same.

This is certainly 1 event I wont forget about. End of quarter. AUD Exporters repatriating from CNY, JPY and any other currency to AUD. Banks know this, so they buy AUD ahead of their clients and stand ready to sell their client AUD at inflated prices.

Just a theory. If it doesnt make sense someone let me know.

As for RBA, with this rise continuation there sure as hell wont be a rate hike. As Stevens said in his speech recently. "IF THIS POSITIVE TREND IN DATA CONTINUES we expect to see interest rate stabilization." Not his exact words but certainly to the tune of that.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #75,377
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:39pm Mar 27, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting Citiboy
Going to start building shorts here at 0.9300.
Well, not building positions but did take a scalp short at 9290 , looking for yesterdays high at 9270 , beyond that todays open at 9257, gl
  • #75,378
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:41pm Mar 27, 2014 9:41pm
Will cut it quick if it don't my R1 out at 9280
  • #75,379
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:59pm Mar 27, 2014 9:59pm
AUD seems to be powering ahead at the moment with higher highs. My next point of resistance is 9300, then just under 9400 and support around 9050. Not sure how high it will go at this stage but conscious of Non Farm PR next week so I will be out of my trade before then.
  • #75,380
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:59pm Mar 27, 2014 9:59pm
out with a whopping 5 pips , coffee money, supposed to be better offers at 93, see if it gets there.
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