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NZD/USD

  • #3,821
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:26am Mar 27, 2014 2:26am
Quoting Halba
from a high point its accelerating at a huge pace. parity is definitely in sight this year. dont know if it will even have any retrace. theres too much carry trade money on the sidelines.
It won't hit parity this year, probably won't break the highs. There will have to be further guaranteed interest rate hikes before it goes that high. And a few reports of GDP, etc.

I think it will test the highs this year, maybe break .90xx, but that will be it for 2014.
  • #3,822
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:28am Mar 27, 2014 2:28am
Let's take the chance and short this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusddaily.png Size: 50 KB
  • #3,823
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:35am Mar 27, 2014 2:35am
Quoting Spik
{quote} Then we differ in the NZDUSD outlook ... I like current price action, so i went long 2 more lots @0,8548.
In the end i went long @ 0,8538, 0,8548, 0,8512 and 0,8504 with different sizes some 7-8 days ago, total 7 lots and average @ 0,8522. My SL was @ 0,8460 and wasn't hit and TP was @ 0,8610, 0,8653, 0,8697 (thirds). First two thirds already bagged now, third one on the way.
  • #3,824
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:37am Mar 27, 2014 2:37am
Quoting grandia
Let's take the chance and short this {image}
Once this pair corrects, it will be more than obvious (a lot of upper wicks with hourly/4hour bearish closes (close price below open price) and the correction should be good for at least 130 pips.

with that said, why short now?

I don't see anything bearish ... at all, why not wait for a signal? been a solid uptrend since early Feb, trends don't change fast and often.
  • #3,825
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:40am Mar 27, 2014 2:40am
u know its going parabolic when the 5minute chart is vertical. whatever it is the bulk of the move is nearly done and unlikely to be many pips in it from now on, as the banks will just range it
  • #3,826
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:42am Mar 27, 2014 2:42am
OMG!! You bulls!!! Stop propping up the NZD!!! Wheeler is going to kill you!!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,827
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:42am Mar 27, 2014 2:42am
Quoting Halba
u know its going parabolic when the 5minute chart is vertical.
Look at weekly, nothing parabolic on there. still consolidation with a potential breakout north! I wouldn't dare think about shorting this pair anytime soon. A lot of suckers are about to be nixed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd-w1-oanda-corporation.png Size: 108 KB
  • #3,828
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:45am Mar 27, 2014 2:45am
I checked all the way back to 1994. It's only been near or above this level twice before it's about 10 pips off of its April 2013 high and before that it went up to .8841 in July 2011. Both times it was followed by 1000+ pip downtrends. So I don't know how much higher it will be allowed to go.

BTW, I've only been scalping daily swings for a little over a month but I'm up over 400%. I learned the hard way to watch out for corrections especially near the weekends.
  • #3,829
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:49am Mar 27, 2014 2:49am
Quoting jaws810
I checked all the way back to 1994. It's only been near or above this level twice before it's about 10 pips off of its April 2013 high and before that it went up to .8841 in July 2011. Both times it was followed by 1000+ pip downtrends. So I don't know how much higher it will be allowed to go.
Again, what you aren't considering are a few important key points that 'may' not allow that to happen (or it may happen, but caution is needed).

1.We are in a period to where 'everyone' is a global bear ... so if globally the world is good ... bullish!

2. NZD expects to raise interest rates in the future, this is the potential for chasing yeild (buying NZD to buy NZD assets (real estate, bonds, domestic stocks, etc).

3. Dairy and other NZD exports are in higher demand. 3rd world is raising their standards of living. They will now eat more meat, drink more milk, etc. And they have to import all of that.

I don't think we see below .8050 for years to come 'unless' the risks in China (or war else where) metastasize ...
  • #3,830
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:58am Mar 27, 2014 2:58am
I'm new to this currency and I'm totally bullish but I wouldn't be surprised by a 200- 300 pip correction or two before it continues to exceed its 2011 high.

As for all is good in the world, I wouldn't say that Europe is about to be destabilized if Putin keeps trying to reassemble the USSR, not sure what that will do to NZD but it will likely have some effect on it.
  • #3,831
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:01am Mar 27, 2014 3:01am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Again, what you aren't considering are a few important key points that 'may' not allow that to happen (or it may happen, but caution is needed). 1.We are in a period to where 'everyone' is a global bear ... so if globally the world is good ... bullish! 2. NZD expects to raise interest rates in the future, this is the potential for chasing yeild (buying NZD to buy NZD assets (real estate, bonds, domestic stocks, etc). 3. Dairy and other NZD exports are in higher demand. 3rd world is raising their standards of living. They will now eat more...
I agree. If China tanks NZD will follow in the short term.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #3,832
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:01am Mar 27, 2014 3:01am
Quoting jaws810
I checked all the way back to 1994. It's only been near or above this level twice before it's about 10 pips off of its April 2013 high and before that it went up to .8841 in July 2011. Both times it was followed by 1000+ pip downtrends. So I don't know how much higher it will be allowed to go. BTW, I've only been scalping daily swings for a little over a month but I'm up over 400%. I learned the hard way to watch out for corrections especially near the weekends.

"
BTW, I've only been scalping daily swings for a little over a month but I'm up over 400%. I learned the hard way to watch out for corrections especially near the weekends.
"

If you are up over 400% in one month, you are leveraging to much (I bet you don't get much sleep). You got lucky so far, but once your trades turn on you, it will wipe out 50% of your account (margin call).

400% isn't worth it, and then traders mistake luck for skill. Slow down or bear the consequences.

And the past couple months have been slow/consolidation, what happens when trends pick up and you are on the wrong side with no retrace to get out at BE?

just a fair warning. a good streak for a good trader is averaging below 1% a day... during a good streak. 400%, you are gambling and good luck doesnt' last forever.
  • #3,833
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:09am Mar 27, 2014 3:09am
On each top traders will ask is it the top or still we didn't reach the top... the answer for that we got it from New Zealand finance minister "expects NZD to decline over time" which mean yes we did reach the top... sometimes bankers and politicians say simply the truth
Forex
  • #3,834
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:12am Mar 27, 2014 3:12am
Quoting Prochartist
On each top traders will ask is it the top or still we didn't reach the top... the answer for that we got it from New Zealand finance minister "expects NZD to decline over time" which mean yes we did reach the top... sometimes bankers and politicians say simply the truth
But they are talking up interest rate rises in quick succession....
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #3,835
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:13am Mar 27, 2014 3:13am
Quoting Prochartist
On each top traders will ask is it the top or still we didn't reach the top... the answer for that we got it from New Zealand finance minister "expects NZD to decline over time" which mean yes we did reach the top... sometimes bankers and politicians say simply the truth

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10893074


Note the date! (hint: last time this was said marked a bottom after forming a base: same story this time would put a base in over the next few weeks for a run up a few hundred pips higher!)

10:30 AM Wednesday Jun 26, 2013
  • #3,836
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:13am Mar 27, 2014 3:13am
I know it's high risk but I'm only going for 20 pips a trade and I like the big payoff. I trade off the 15min 60sma, I go long between 12:00pm and 6:00pm NY time when the price goes below the 60 sma and get my pips while I sleep during the Asian Session. I know eventually my luck will run out but until then I'll enjoy the pips and enjoy the interest when I need to hold on to a trade more than a day.
  • #3,837
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:17am Mar 27, 2014 3:17am
Quoting jaws810
I know it's high risk but I'm only going for 20 pips a trade and I like the big payoff. I trade off the 15min 60sma, I go long between 12:00pm and 6:00pm NY time when the price goes below the 60 sma and get my pips while I sleep during the Asian Session. I know eventually my luck will run out but until then I'll enjoy the pips and enjoy the interest when I need to hold on to a trade more than a day.
I am not saying you won't, I am saying that 400% in one month is 20% a day, consequently. which is nearly impossible. Either you are lying, or you are extremely lucky and aren't using stops ... if you are extremely lucky, then when your luck runs out it will costs you 1/2 your account.
  • #3,838
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:18am Mar 27, 2014 3:18am
Quoting bogus
{quote} But they are talking up interest rate rises in quick succession....
The second (and possibly last) rate raise is already largely priced in. We should get up to 0,8750-0,8800 (pure inertia!) range before RBNZ announcement in April, but i expect the second rate raise not affecting NZDUSD in positive direction. Rather i expect NZDUSD to recede gradually after second rate raise. Thus we should get a round top (or two of them) @ beformentioned levels later in April.
  • #3,839
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:19am Mar 27, 2014 3:19am
this whole thing about overvalued and undervalued is BS..

because the only thing that truly matters is.. WILL there be an intervention PERIOD.

JPY has been yelling their curruncy is overvalued for years blowing smoke and making threats till they finally started to take real action.

Euro also blew a lot of smoke before it took action, and now it has the threat because It can and will do it.

until Kiwi and Aussie and anyone else follows lead.. Its empty calories.

Whatever retail traders think won't sway the market. Power of the brain does not move mountains in this case.

So whoever is thinking about this things, keep that in mind.. Empty words -- Doesn't mean anything will happen.

Anticipating it and taking positions now is just financial suicide -- Because picking tops and bottoms is a good way to end broke. It's bad habits we all fall trap too, good time as any to brake bad habits.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,840
  • Mar 27, 2014 3:21am Mar 27, 2014 3:21am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I am not saying you won't, I am saying that 400% in one month is 20% a day, consequently. which is nearly impossible. Either you are lying, or you are extremely lucky and aren't using stops ... if you are extremely lucky, then when your luck runs out it will costs you 1/2 your account.
I was monitoring one guy's account in this month. He traded aggressively, without SLs, if in deficit he waited and closed with small profits etc. He went staggering +300% in 5 days. His streak ended when he was about +550% after mere 8 days. The FOMC few days ago caught him on left foot and literally erased his whole account in minutes. What should we learn?

This way of trading is the safest way to lose your money.
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