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NZD/USD

  • #3,781
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:38am Mar 26, 2014 4:38am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I don't think there will be any big reversal below .805x for years to come. High rates, demand for dairy, etc. are here to stay. Bad economy? people still buy milk. I am looking, as of now, for parity across a couple NZD pairs.
Good to know that. I'll keep that in mind.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #3,782
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:44am Mar 26, 2014 4:44am
Quoting Halba
{quote} nothing is guaranteed. if people need milk why was nzd struggling for a few years before. the economy is more broad based. milk is only a few $bn out of a $250bn economy.
Interest rates.

Money chases yield.

low yield Yen and USD buys high Yield NZD, AUD, Rand, Zar, etc. and buys bonds that pay higher with that yeild and other derivatives/assets (real estate).

New Zealands real estate is booming, so they have to raise rates to cool that down, rates attract buyers just like real estate would.

Years ago, others were expecting rates to drop, so they cashed out, now they are expecting rates to rise, so they buy in ... for the longer term.
  • #3,783
  • Mar 26, 2014 8:38am Mar 26, 2014 8:38am
I so love this currency this week BUY BUY BUY BUY
  • #3,784
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:48pm Mar 26, 2014 4:48pm
NZD – February Trade Balance in at +818M vs expectations of +600M. Previous (Jan) was +306M
  • #3,785
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:51pm Mar 26, 2014 4:51pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
NZD – February Trade Balance in at +818M vs expectations of +600M. Previous (Jan) was +306M

Didn't pop much from the data.
  • #3,786
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:54pm Mar 26, 2014 4:54pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Didn't pop much from the data.
initial reaction is low but the data is positive so it will keep feeding the bulls -- So I'm holding on to my long.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,787
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:55pm Mar 26, 2014 4:55pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} initial reaction is low but the data is positive so it will keep feeding the bulls -- So I'm holding on to my long.

I don't see any bulls though...I think this data was already considered...
  • #3,788
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:55pm Mar 26, 2014 4:55pm
Looks like its waiting for the U.S in about 2 hours
  • #3,789
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:57pm Mar 26, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} I don't see any bulls though...I think this data was already considered...
maybe their hiding lol.. I don't know.. Doesn't make sense..

Nothing in this market makes sense anymore, I'll continue to cautiously hold for now.. maybe it will come out of its shell if not I'll dump it and will start fishing for shorts.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,790
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:01pm Mar 26, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} maybe their hiding lol.. I don't know.. Doesn't make sense.. Nothing in this market makes sense anymore, I'll continue to cautiously hold for now.. maybe it will come out of its shell if not I'll dump it and will start fishing for shorts.

Sometimes she does her own thing...her=market. I have seen this plenty of times where data/fundementals and techs just don't go hand in hand.


(These roll over charges today are lameski! Triple! and I am on the short end of the NZD/USD so its pretty hefty haha)
  • #3,791
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:05pm Mar 26, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Sometimes she does her own thing...her=market. I have seen this plenty of times where data/fundementals and techs just don't go hand in hand.
or it could be a trap.. Had a lot of those with NZD.. people will be like Oh its priced it in and going on grab more shorts BOOM its going up and squeezing everyone out and then everyone is like WHY WHY lol.. Seen that a lot too..

I don't want to be premature on this and close my long and to fall for the trap.. nor do I want to not close it and its going to go down lol.. I'm at crossroads

To hard to know the play from here.. Its like good data it pays swaps no one wants to short it dosn't want to go down.. but. at the same time no fuel no bulls.. will it go or will it consolidate will it go higher.

I swear All I wanted was After this report if its bad I'll close it -- if its good.. I'll keep position because bulls will be in play and now I'm in lingo and can't relax.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,792
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:06pm Mar 26, 2014 5:06pm
I think is great news for the country in light of Chinese 'slowdown'. I personally prefer Aud/Nzd shorts and Nzd/Jpy longs off this data and current PA.
  • #3,793
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:09pm Mar 26, 2014 5:09pm
if it goes down to .8570ish.. I'll cut it there..Gives me at least an exit area.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,794
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:11pm Mar 26, 2014 5:11pm
Ordinarily, a Trade Balance that far exceeds the forecast is bullish for a currency, but since the NZD value is so high right now, and their Exports far exceed their Imports, I don't see how this can benefit the NZD. A much weaker NZD would seem to benefit more from this Trade Balance.
  • #3,795
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:12pm Mar 26, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting palabara
if it goes down to .8570ish.. I'll cut it there..Gives me at least an exit area.

Good idea! There is a chance you will survive. Nothing wrong with having an exit strategy. If support at .8565ish goes...bears might be able to take her down a bit.
  • #3,796
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:13pm Mar 26, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting thadakman
Ordinarily, a Trade Balance that far exceeds the forecast is bullish for a currency, but since the NZD value is so high right now, and their Exports far exceed their Imports, I don't see how this can benefit the NZD. A much weaker NZD would seem to benefit more from this Trade Balance.

  • #3,797
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:42pm Mar 26, 2014 5:42pm
Until this market in general is going to start producing like normal.. I'm going to play it like a Poker guy who bleeds chips.. Instead of calling every hand till we get to the river to see that your SOL Cut your losses when the flop isn't on your side -- Like that will bleed small but keep an eye on the pot at every hand knowing that I'll bleed for a while and then get the big pot and then bleed some more till I get another pot!

Edit: Poker can solve all of lifes problems. Including crappy markets.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,798
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:45pm Mar 26, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting palabara
Until this market in general is going to start producing like normal.. I'm going to play it like a Poker guy who bleeds chips.. Instead of calling every hand till we get to the river to see that your SOL Cut your losses when the flop isn't on your side -- Like that will bleed small but keep an eye on the pot at every hand knowing that I'll bleed for a while and then get the big pot and then bleed some more till I get another pot! Edit: Poker can solve all of lifes problems. Including crappy markets.

  • #3,799
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:50pm Mar 26, 2014 5:50pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote}
When I did that in the casino.. I played on $100 for 8 hours! and Walked away with my $100 lol

Bad analogy, but in Forex Its different, the pot sizes if stay consistent will remain their and so as long as we take a few relatively to what will bleed Eh just give the money lol!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,800
  • Mar 26, 2014 6:24pm Mar 26, 2014 6:24pm
Why would anyone be shorting The NZD after post a trade surplus like that!?
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