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AUD/USD

  • #75,201
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:22am Mar 26, 2014 2:22am
this is unbelievable
  • #75,202
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:24am Mar 26, 2014 2:24am
Quoting Halba
this is unbelievable
what is?

headline news lying to you about how bad things are? money chasing yeilds?

I added to my long NZD's and AUD pairs.

AUD might be heading for mid 90's while NZD to test .89.
  • #75,203
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:27am Mar 26, 2014 2:27am
yay... i shorted.. lookin to see if 0.91700 is possible..
  • #75,204
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:27am Mar 26, 2014 2:27am
this is crazy. just 2 months ago AUD was in the bin. the banks should be fined for outright manipulation today. no wonder they are getting investigated. bullshit market. im done here.

why dont they just put it up to 95 right now.
  • #75,205
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:30am Mar 26, 2014 2:30am
Might as well call a short term top here. Back to 0.899 we go..
  • #75,206
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:32am Mar 26, 2014 2:32am
Quoting Halba
this is crazy. just 2 months ago AUD was in the bin. the banks should be fined for outright manipulation today. no wonder they are getting investigated. bullshit market. im done here. why dont they just put it up to 95 right now.
You are short? close it. AUD has been building bullish momentum since Jan.

What manipulation are they doing? what is the investigation into? the manipulate you hear about in the news was on daily fixes ... and those would often correct themselves, no one entity drives the forex market above all else.

2 months ago AUD wasn't in the Bin. I am looking at the daily, and I see consolidation with a base forming 2 months ago.
  • #75,207
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:32am Mar 26, 2014 2:32am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} just stating obvious : now 9108 smash this bloody TL starting near 10600 ! go,go, go !~!~!~!
now 9230

looks like we are gunning for new all time high in couple of months.
  • #75,208
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:39am Mar 26, 2014 2:39am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} now 9230 looks like we are gunning for new all time high in couple of months.
all time high, u mean 1.10?
  • #75,209
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:44am Mar 26, 2014 2:44am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} You are short? close it. AUD has been building bullish momentum since Jan. What manipulation are they doing? what is the investigation into? the manipulate you hear about in the news was on daily fixes ... and those would often correct themselves, no one entity drives the forex market above all else. 2 months ago AUD wasn't in the Bin. I am looking at the daily, and I see consolidation with a base forming 2 months ago.
hindsight is easy to say in picking the bottom or base in your words but is ruthless as long term we still are set for downward, range movement. Aud economic conditions have improved recently because they lowered their exchange rate, it would make no sense for it to go back up again especially when they still are just doing okay. I think this will just likely range in the bigger picture until we get some clearer picture of what usd is going to do.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #75,210
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:47am Mar 26, 2014 2:47am
don't think we will see 0.899.... monthly is starting to cross as well and the end of the month is near...

saying that... pull back is a norm of market and it could start at this point....
  • #75,211
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:51am Mar 26, 2014 2:51am
Quoting Halba
{quote} all time high, u mean 1.10?
yes..

couple of things will happen.

china index will reverse sharply once shorts realise it will not crack. new stimuluses everywhere. way too much unemployed too high risk of revolution. so, print, print, print, print
  • #75,212
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:52am Mar 26, 2014 2:52am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} hindsight is easy to say in picking the bottom or base in your words but is ruthless as long term we still are set for downward, range movement. Aud economic conditions have improved recently because they lowered their exchange rate, it would make no sense for it to go back up again especially when they still are just doing okay. I think this will just likely range in the bigger picture until we get some clearer picture of what usd is going to do.
I disagree. How do you know what the PPP (purchasing power parity) should be. Higher exchange rates = lower energy costs and lower imports. What if China pegs to Aussie and they are the main buyer, than a floating non Yuan rate wouldn't matter much to them. all in context of who is giving you the information.

A higher currency is a necessity to cool down an exporting countries inflation.

It makes perfect sense to rise or fall, as long as the variables are met. There are more positive variables for AUD and negative.

What the USD is doing is raking up 17 Trillion of debt and growing by several Trillion per year, same as Japan, I dont' see why an investor would want to buy the USD anytime soon.
  • #75,213
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:08am Mar 26, 2014 3:08am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} There are more positive variables for AUD and negative. What the USD is doing is raking up 17 Trillion of debt and growing by several Trillion per year, same as Japan, I dont' see why an investor would want to buy the USD anytime soon.
Its all about fitting the story when its convenient.

You want to talk about growing deficits and no one buying the dollar? Look at the Reagan administration. Enormous deficits and the dollar boomed out the roof.

It doesn't matter what story you make up in your head about what currency is going up and which is going down. Fact of the matter is that I don't think anyone in this forum can accurately predict currency movements. It's been done and tried. Even more so when they are free-floating. Too much speculation. The only edge you have in this game is raw discipline.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #75,214
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:12am Mar 26, 2014 3:12am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Its all about fitting the story when its convenient. You want to talk about growing deficits and no one buying the dollar? Look at the Reagan administration. Enormous deficits and the dollar boomed out the roof.
Reagan admin didn't have 17 Trillion in debt.

It isn't fitting a story to anything. Simple flow chart/cash flow.

Money chases higher yield with lowest liability.

USD has 'low' yield with high liabilities, same with Japan.

Until the USD is fiscally sorted, money will go else where unless else where is doing bad worse. Right now, else where isn't doing worse.

Unless things drastically change, monies look to chase foreign yield for the rest of the decade.

I dont' read much news headlines. I can't tell you what is going on in China or Ukraise according to MSM, i just watch the money flow, and the money likes foreign yield.
  • #75,215
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:18am Mar 26, 2014 3:18am
some of the traders in this thread but warned not to take ambitious short positions. even levels were given by me. now don't short till 0.9120 gets taken out. if you short don't cry if you lose
  • #75,216
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:24am Mar 26, 2014 3:24am
Quoting mrluckystar
{quote} Almost there... {image}
YEP..Only 140 pips to gp......
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Money Makes Money
  • #75,217
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:27am Mar 26, 2014 3:27am
Quoting Halba
this is crazy. just 2 months ago AUD was in the bin. the banks should be fined for outright manipulation today. no wonder they are getting investigated. bullshit market. im done here. why dont they just put it up to 95 right now.
you want banks to be fined for the stupid mistakes you made. who told you to short when it was in uptrend
  • #75,218
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:31am Mar 26, 2014 3:31am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} you want banks to be fined for the stupid mistakes you made. who told you to short when it was in uptrend

Hey man. Lay off. Seriously like 2 pages ago you started this. Stop.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #75,219
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:32am Mar 26, 2014 3:32am
Quoting Halba
this is crazy. just 2 months ago AUD was in the bin. the banks should be fined for outright manipulation today. no wonder they are getting investigated. bullshit market. im done here. why dont they just put it up to 95 right now.
0.94.80 actually.........
Money Makes Money
  • #75,220
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:01am Mar 26, 2014 4:01am
Today
au 0.8600
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