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AUD/USD

  • #75,141
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:12pm Mar 25, 2014 11:12pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} brother aren't we way too oversold when it felt from 1.02 to 0.95 and people including me bought and it fell to 0.9200. then to 0.89 and then to 0.86. so way too oversold and way too overbought are bullshit terms. trade technicals
Fair call..

Okay let me swing this buy you all. The market was hovering and moving sideways waiting for something big, everybody thought Stevens was going to deliver a death blow to knock the AUD down. It did not come but we only went up 20 odd pips (depending on points one is playing with), I would have expected a bigger jump straight into the 0.92+ range. My SL is set at the 0.92120 and I have not hit it yet.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,142
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:13pm Mar 25, 2014 11:13pm
when it goes down to 0.9120... i'll probably be expecting it to go up...haha... not adding to shorts.. but not killing off the position either... will monitor it for a while... lets see how the next few hourly candles play out

in any case.. just small positions
  • #75,143
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:13pm Mar 25, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} Fair call.. Okay let me swing this buy you all. The market was hovering and moving sideways waiting for something big, everybody thought Stevens was going to deliver a death blow to knock the AUD down. It did not come but we only went up 20 odd pips (depending on points one is playing with), I would have expected a bigger jump straight into the 0.92+ range. My SL is set at the 0.92120 and I have not hit it yet.
that big jump will come bcoz 0.9182 is cleared opening up 0.9214 as target first up.
  • #75,144
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:13pm Mar 25, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} Its not balls; it is mental retardation. No wonder so many traders lose in this industry. Take the loss and if conviction still there wait for another opportunity. But to hang in there just to prove that the market was wrong and the trader was right, deserves to take a heavy loss. Some just never learn. Oh I forgot, most traders do lose.
Couldn't agree more.
Best post of the day
  • #75,145
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:16pm Mar 25, 2014 11:16pm
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} Its not balls; it is mental retardation. No wonder so many traders lose in this industry. Take the loss and if conviction still there wait for another opportunity. But to hang in there just to prove that the market was wrong and the trader was right, deserves to take a heavy loss. Some just never learn. Oh I forgot, most traders do lose.

well don't we all go through that phase. we all learn from mistakes.
  • #75,146
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:18pm Mar 25, 2014 11:18pm
Quoting palabara
what's with the breaking news.. I thought his not up till a few more hours?! What he forgot the time.
Stevens is in the spotlight twice today .
Firstly his speech to the conference and then later as part of a panel discussion .


26 March 2014, 5:00 pm AEDT
(2:00 pm HKT)
Glenn Stevens, Governor, participating in a panel discussion at the 17th Annual Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference, Hong Kong, China.
  • #75,147
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:19pm Mar 25, 2014 11:19pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} Stevens is in the spotlight twice today . Firstly his speech to the conference and then later as part of a panel discussion . 26 March 2014, 5:00 pm AEDT (2:00 pm HKT) Glenn Stevens, Governor, participating in a panel discussion at the 17th Annual Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference, Hong Kong, China.
One is already done. forexfactory has reported it wrongly.
  • #75,148
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:23pm Mar 25, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting mrluckystar
Neckline being tested at AU.... {image}
There you go... AU clean break on the neckline at daily...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-26-12-18-38.png Size: 438 KB
Peace Yo!
  • #75,149
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:26pm Mar 25, 2014 11:26pm
cannot suffer anymore,
im cutloss, before hit 9225. maybe sell again if 9225 hit.
  • #75,150
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:37pm Mar 25, 2014 11:37pm
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} Fair call.. Okay let me swing this buy you all. The market was hovering and moving sideways waiting for something big, everybody thought Stevens was going to deliver a death blow to knock the AUD down. It did not come but we only went up 20 odd pips (depending on points one is playing with), I would have expected a bigger jump straight into the 0.92+ range. My SL is set at the 0.92120 and I have not hit it yet.
Diddy, I entered shorts around the same time as you and recall you had a very wide SL at that time at 91500. I just took my haircut. I agree with the other guys, who ultimately aren't critiscising, but trying to help you with your risk management. If you are trading spot, I would cut this one, it is a freight train with no techs supporting a short anymore. If on options, I can understand holding.

But generally agree with others that contuining to move your SL just leads to more pain.

Regards,
  • #75,151
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:38pm Mar 25, 2014 11:38pm
EA want to test the neckline???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-26-12-33-09.png Size: 410 KB
Peace Yo!
  • #75,152
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:48pm Mar 25, 2014 11:48pm
Quoting mrluckystar
EA want to test the neckline??? {image}
Unless E/U is more bullish than A/U
  • #75,153
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:51pm Mar 25, 2014 11:51pm
Commonwealth has published a report on the RBA's biannual release of the Financial Stability Report (FSR) today.
  • #75,154
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:58pm Mar 25, 2014 11:58pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Unless E/U is more bullish than A/U
EA a bit slow compare to GA (which already break the neckline last week) due to stronger EU...
Peace Yo!
  • #75,155
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:59pm Mar 25, 2014 11:59pm
its going vertical and exponential. often these moves retrace at some point. dont know when. could be a few weeks from now.
  • #75,156
  • Mar 26, 2014 12:01am Mar 26, 2014 12:01am
AUDUSD – Light buy stops on a break of 0.9200. Dealers say more stops at 0.9220, just past 0.9210 TA resistance.
  • #75,157
  • Mar 26, 2014 12:04am Mar 26, 2014 12:04am
Quoting samgribbles
{quote} Diddy, I entered shorts around the same time as you and recall you had a very wide SL at that time at 91500. I just took my haircut. I agree with the other guys, who ultimately aren't critiscising, but trying to help you with your risk management. If you are trading spot, I would cut this one, it is a freight train with no techs supporting a short anymore. If on options, I can understand holding. But generally agree with others that contuining to move your SL just leads to more pain. Regards,
Thanks guys, I am looking for exit positions. To put everybody at ease my biggest trade is only -70 pips, so we are not talking huge dollars here.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #75,158
  • Edited 12:33am Mar 26, 2014 12:08am | Edited 12:33am
Hey how's everyone doing?

Just to followup on my thoughts that I posted last week...

Quoting JollyBean
OK so here's just my quick thoughts for today, tomorrow, the next few days. Been long on this pair since .87-.88, will only start taking profit from .92-.97 Right now, we're having a nice daily inside bar setup, and if it plays out, we can expect price to play around this area towards .91+ today. What could accelerate this rise? Positive news for tomorrow's monetary policy meeting. If it's really, really positive, no more mention of .85 preference, no more "uncomfortably high" and so on, I could see it jumping to .92 .93. If it's normal positive,...
Sentiment hasn't changed. In fact, today's economic outlook by Stevens is surprisingly bullish in my opinion.

I still see this scenario playing out, won't stop going up anytime soon, and I would caution anyone who's thinking of going short, especially for the long term. Especially if this is just going to be the start of the AUD/USD bull run.

Anyway, trade safe.

Something from today's Steven's report that caught my attention...

"Having said that, let me return to a more global perspective, to make the point that sustainable growth over the long run has to rely on more than just monetary policy. Strong long-run growth won't be achieved in any country simply by manipulating interest rates (or, for that matter, exchange rates)."

He knows it. He's acknowledging it. He specifically mentions "exchange rates". And that means he might actually stop talking down the currency, and start letting it rise according to market demand. In other words, extremely bullish on the pair.
  • #75,159
  • Mar 26, 2014 12:10am Mar 26, 2014 12:10am
Quoting JollyBean
Hey how's everyone doing? Just to followup on my thoughts that I posted last week... {quote} Sentiment hasn't changed. I still see this scenario playing out, and I would caution anyone who's thinking of going short, especially for the long term. Trade safe.
thanks mate.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #75,160
  • Mar 26, 2014 12:12am Mar 26, 2014 12:12am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} Thanks guys, I am looking for exit positions. To put everybody at ease my biggest trade is only -70 pips, so we are not talking huge dollars here.
im shorting right now at 0.9191 sl 0.9215 to trade a retracement maybe to 0.9130, be carefull with sl level, most of the time everyone lose positions as sls are very close to resistance and support lines, the noise/spikes in those levels make many winning trades, loser ones.
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