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AUD/USD

  • #75,081
  • Mar 25, 2014 1:02pm Mar 25, 2014 1:02pm
The reversal formation has a technical target of .9500. I have longs from below the support line which is at .9150 and I will add to them if I see price actiion off a retest of this support.
Gone to a better place
  • #75,082
  • Mar 25, 2014 1:50pm Mar 25, 2014 1:50pm
Seems to have run into some resistance at the Dec 10th 2013 high, that and we got a spinning top with legs on the 15 min chart.

I'm still not convinced this pair will turn south at this point although the 200 MA and 60 MA lay below at .9118 and .9080 on the 1 hour charts.

If the RBA Financial Stability Review hints of negativity then we could see a move down to those levels mentioned above.

Keep this in mind when reading this..........I am a short term trader and if price should go to .9118 or .9080 I will be exiting my shorts.
  • #75,083
  • Mar 25, 2014 1:55pm Mar 25, 2014 1:55pm
Quoting irongoose
Seems to have run into some resistance at the Dec 10th 2013 high, that and we got a spinning top with legs on the 15 min chart. I'm still not convinced this pair will turn south at this point although the 200 MA and 60 MA lay below at .9118 and .9080 on the 1 hour charts. If the RBA Financial Stability Review hints of negativity then we could see a move down to those levels mentioned above. Keep this in mind when reading this..........I am a short term trader and if price should go to .9118 or .9080 I will be exiting my shorts.

If price should go higher and take out my stops I'll be eating my shorts.
  • #75,084
  • Mar 25, 2014 2:07pm Mar 25, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Possible (many things are possible) that they take this up to 9180/9200 area or maybe even 9220. But who cares really, what's 50 pips between friends.
Quelle surprise, the high so far .9174 by the looks of things which as it happens is a possible target (to the tick - the target comes out at .91745) that I have marked up on one of my charts.
Of course, that doesn't mean they can't and won't ramp it further e.g. to .92.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #75,085
  • Mar 25, 2014 2:12pm Mar 25, 2014 2:12pm
Adding another short here, now time to close down the trading software before I do myself an injury.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #75,086
  • Mar 25, 2014 2:16pm Mar 25, 2014 2:16pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Adding another short here, now time to close down the trading software before I do myself an injury.
Im right there with you
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #75,087
  • Mar 25, 2014 2:33pm Mar 25, 2014 2:33pm
I'm going to make a general statement, and whoever cares can reflect on this but from an observational point -- Anticipation is a killer -- Such as.. That everyone anticipates that AUD is going to go down.. When -- Eventually.. So everyone is already positioning themselves for the short that is going to happen in the future.. Now it might still go up to .9200 it might go up to .9300 who knows, but people already stacking shorts in anticipation of this down movement.

Anticipation is a killer -- If you don't think its going to continue up then wait for it to go down before jumping on that boat but if you don't choose up then you DON'T have to choose down lol you can sit on the sidelines.

I'm just reflecting an observation that.. I've been caught in the same thing.. We anticipate a move so we jump on it.. Only to sit on a losing position for a long time, because we anticipated it.

Anticipation is a killer.. Time to break bad habits.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #75,088
  • Mar 25, 2014 2:45pm Mar 25, 2014 2:45pm
not sure if that 9150 break was in the cards for today, kinda brought over by the nonsense going on eur and pound.

im short from 9167, would like to see 9120-9070.
Do what's right for you
  • #75,089
  • Mar 25, 2014 2:51pm Mar 25, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting palabara
I'm going to make a general statement, and whoever cares can reflect on this but from an observational point -- Anticipation is a killer -- Such as.. That everyone anticipates that AUD is going to go down.. When -- Eventually.. So everyone is already positioning themselves for the short that is going to happen in the future.. Now it might still go up to .9200 it might go up to .9300 who knows, but people already stacking shorts in anticipation of this down movement. Anticipation is a killer -- If you don't think its going to continue up then wait...

Idk about you but I take positions in anticipation of future movements. Right now I have a limit short order. But anticipation ALSO INFLUENCES price direction. The relationship between Prices and Anticipation is not unidirectional but circular.

There are 2 ways I play anticipating future price movements:

1. Take a very small position and sitting and waiting with an acceptable stop OR a point at which you question your thesis of the move

2. Place a limit order for entry at a level that signals a strong directional move.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #75,090
  • Mar 25, 2014 2:57pm Mar 25, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Idk about you but I take positions in anticipation of future movements. Right now I have a limit short order. But anticipation ALSO INFLUENCES price direction. The relationship between Prices and Anticipation is not unidirectional but circular. There are 2 ways I play anticipating future price movements: 1. Take a very small position and sitting and waiting with an acceptable stop OR a point at which you question your thesis of the move 2. Place a limit order for entry at a level that signals a strong directional move.
Hey just sent u a PM Back sry it took so long
  • #75,091
  • Mar 25, 2014 2:57pm Mar 25, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting palabara
I'm going to make a general statement, and whoever cares can reflect on this but from an observational point -- Anticipation is a killer -- Such as.. That everyone anticipates that AUD is going to go down.. When -- Eventually.. So everyone is already positioning themselves for the short that is going to happen in the future.. Now it might still go up to .9200 it might go up to .9300 who knows, but people already stacking shorts in anticipation of this down movement. Anticipation is a killer -- If you don't think its going to continue up then wait...
There is no law by nature or legislature which says the aussie has to go down. I'm stuck in the mindset it's due correction, but it's all a matter of time frames

Draw a chart with weekly candles and you'll notice it fell since end of April 2013. Add a wave oscillator eg MACD if you like, and you'll notice it made a low and recovered then made a lower low, but that there was divergence in the wave oscillator. This would in long term view suggest the pair is going to strengthen, breaking the down trend.

Draw same chart with hourly candles, for the last week or so, and we'll notice ascendancy since last Thursday, making 5 trading days. and the end of this wave (possibly a w3) is hardly promised, there is no divergence, and no power other than let's say gravity, which suggests that it's time for a downward adjustment. I think there's support on H1 around .9139 which would have to be broken to confirm a trend change.

Isn't trading with hindsight easy! I can see a fib retracement line around .9072, but hey, is there any expectation that this should be tested?
  • #75,092
  • Mar 25, 2014 3:11pm Mar 25, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting wiseambition
{quote} There is no law by nature or legislature which says the aussie has to go down. I'm stuck in the mindset it's due correction, but it's all a matter of time frames Draw a chart with weekly candles and you'll notice it fell since end of April 2013. Add a wave oscillator eg MACD if you like, and you'll notice it made a low and recovered then made a lower low, but that there was divergence in the wave oscillator. This would in long term view suggest the pair is going to strengthen, breaking the down trend. Draw same chart with hourly candles,...
Trading with hindsight is absolutely easy.. But using different time frames its all a matter of your Risk Vs Reward.

if your trading a higher time frame the idea is that your looking for a big move so the this movements are irrelevant as your looking at the big picture.

Using the big picture to try to anticipate a correction on a short term movement can hurt.

if your looking for 30 pips and looking on the weekly chart.. Saying oh well were in a correction lol.. One of those candles can be 200 pips.

I'm just starting a general statement about anticipating a movement.. Whoever does whatever its all up to each individual person.

Thinking something is going to happen and then looking for reassurance its searching for things to make you feel correct, but until it does happen sitting on a negative or worst adding positions unto a growing negative.

Using Fib and Eliot is a matter of strategy most people don't even know how to use them properly but throw them anyways to reassurance their vision.

If your trading Elliott waves THEORY

Then its a strategy that someone utilizes as entry and exit points, most people just look at Elliott waves to confirm and rest assured that they are making the right decisions -- question is.. Is it?!

The ability to not try to anticipate something, is golden instead of shorting thinking the trend is going to stop or its going to die or whatever just to patiently wait and take a trade and exit if its wrong.

The problem is the ability to hold on to losers and quickly get rid of winners to take profit.

There is no shame in taking profit, but holding losers is a matter of stranded operating procedure.

I'm just trying to bring it up and have people reflect on this.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #75,093
  • Mar 25, 2014 3:14pm Mar 25, 2014 3:14pm
Quoting palabara
I'm going to make a general statement, and whoever cares can reflect on this but from an observational point -- Anticipation is a killer -- Such as.. That everyone anticipates that AUD is going to go down.. When -- Eventually.. So everyone is already positioning themselves for the short that is going to happen in the future.. Now it might still go up to .9200 it might go up to .9300 who knows, but people already stacking shorts in anticipation of this down movement. Anticipation is a killer -- If you don't think its going to continue up then wait...
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #75,094
  • Mar 25, 2014 4:44pm Mar 25, 2014 4:44pm
going straight up without any retrace. higher than even pre fomc. what is going on.
  • #75,095
  • Mar 25, 2014 4:58pm Mar 25, 2014 4:58pm
aud is almost done.
  • #75,096
  • Mar 25, 2014 4:59pm Mar 25, 2014 4:59pm
Quoting zew
aud is almost done.

Whatcha talking about willis! We have been saying that! But is it though!
  • #75,097
  • Mar 25, 2014 6:05pm Mar 25, 2014 6:05pm
going up on a daily basis now.

cant see any resistance at the moment.
  • #75,098
  • Mar 25, 2014 6:14pm Mar 25, 2014 6:14pm
maybe stevens is going to tell us later he meant 0.95 not 0.85 before!
Do what's right for you
  • #75,099
  • Mar 25, 2014 6:23pm Mar 25, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting momochi
maybe stevens is going to tell us later he meant 0.95 not 0.85 before!
Ifs that's what he really said then why isn't it there yet ?
  • #75,100
  • Mar 25, 2014 6:51pm Mar 25, 2014 6:51pm
Aud/Usd looks more like its poised to go up and any talk about it going down is just to trap traders into short positions.

Story from Dec 13,2013

http://www.news.com.au/finance/marke...-1226782084533

RESERVE Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens says he'd prefer a fall in the value of the Australian dollar over lower interest rates as a means to lift the local economy.
Mr Stevens said on Friday he would like a dollar closer to 85 US cents to help stimulate trade-exposed sectors of the economy.
The Australian dollar was trading at 90.31 US cents on Thursday - down from 91.31 cents a day earlier - and given the falling terms of trade, Mr Stevens hopes it continues to move lower.
"To the extent that we get some more easing in financial conditions, at this point it's probably more preferable for that to be via a lower currency at the margin than lower interest rates," he said.
"I thought 85 (US cents) would be closer to the mark than 95 (US cents)."
In the wake of Holden's announcement it will quit local production by the end of 2017, Mr Stevens said the car industry faced more challenges than just the exchange rate.
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However, the RBA boss added he believes manufacturing has a future in Australia.
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