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  • #3,741
  • Edited 10:53pm Mar 23, 2014 6:34pm | Edited 10:53pm
Hi Olu & Co,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts/analysis guys. I have special appreciation for the ideas shared on this thread, MPB, and numbnuts's.

Just finished doing some quantitative Strength/Weakness analysis to help me putting things into perspective:
Legend: 1=strongest currency; 8=weakest currency.

Year 2013:
1. GBP
2. EUR
3. CHF
4. USD
5. NZD
6. CAD
7. AUD
8. JPY

2014 YTD:
1. NZD
2. AUD
3. JPY
4. CHF
5. EUR
6. USD
7. GBP
8. CAD

March MTD:
1. AUD
2. NZD
3. USD
4. EUR
5. JPY
6. CHF
7. GBP
8. CAD

Previous Week (including some comments):
1. AUD (inside bar resolved by a bullish engulfing last week reinforces bottoming idea)
2. USD (made a brand new yearly low last week followed by bullish engulfing)
3. NZD (fresh yearly high last week; raising since it broke tightening range to the upside at month's beginning)
4. JPY (been in a tightening range all month, posted a 2nd inside bar last week)
5. EUR (doji at new yearly high followed by a weak close down last week)
6. GBP (falling since it broke a tightening range at month's beginning)
7. CAD (last week it broke daily support, made a fresh yearly low and 100% of 2013 range)
8. CHF (new yearly high just the week before followed by bearish engulfing last week)
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,742
  • Mar 24, 2014 9:49am Mar 24, 2014 9:49am
AudUsd

euraud and gbpaud have continued to weaken as thought. Because of Aud getting stronger. A big test (the 200sma) awaits the audusd though...

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-daily-24032014-1420uk.JPG Size: 60 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,743
  • Mar 24, 2014 4:35pm Mar 24, 2014 4:35pm
Crude Oil

I am short this one and naturally want it to tank
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,744
  • Mar 24, 2014 4:51pm Mar 24, 2014 4:51pm
Quoting vox dei
Just finished doing some quantitative Strength/Weakness analysis to help me putting things into perspective...
Thanks for the analysis Vox Dei. It is like the updated chart Jimbaloo put up about 2 weeks ago. I observe that aud is the top ranking in the 'so far' section so we might do well for ourselves to put away our skepticism about Aud strength. The markets have factored China in already.if price breaks and closes above the 200sma I will buy it and see where momentum will carry it to.

Thanks guys for your first class posts

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,745
  • Mar 24, 2014 5:14pm Mar 24, 2014 5:14pm
Gold and Silver

****I cant seem to upload charts****
EDIT: It's working now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GoldAndSilver-daily-24032014-2208uk.jpg Size: 109 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,746
  • Mar 24, 2014 5:49pm Mar 24, 2014 5:49pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Thanks for the analysis Vox Dei. It is like the updated chart Jimbaloo put up about 2 weeks ago. I observe that aud is the top ranking in the 'so far' section so we might do well for ourselves to put away our skepticism about Aud strength. The markets have factored China in already.if price breaks and closes above the 200sma I will buy it and see where momentum will carry it to. Thanks guys for your first class posts Olu
Agreed Olu. AUD steady strengthening should not be ignored. AUD is looking like the top buy candidate atm.

Thanks for the kind words. Good trading to you,
vox
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,747
  • Mar 24, 2014 6:16pm Mar 24, 2014 6:16pm
Quoting Olu
AudUsd euraud and gbpaud have continued to weaken as thought. Because of Aud getting stronger. A big test (the 200sma) awaits the audusd though... Olu {image}
imho
the 2x PB in the past weeks + yesterday daily candle closed with a long lower tail = a sign up of strong momentum to break thru 200 ma and heading to the north further
let's watch how it turns out this week

cheers
  • #3,748
  • Edited 7:00pm Mar 24, 2014 6:18pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting from AUD/USD thread:

Quoting EmeraldEyes
Westpac reiteration today: This week Westpac revised its outlook for the overnight cash rate by no longer forecasting rate cuts in the second half of 2014. This decision was partly made because of the considerable comfort that the Board holds with the current policy stance. That was clear in the minutes to the RBA’s March Board meeting released yesterday with the Bank pointing to gradual improvement in the economy; and expectations that growth in 2015 will be a little above trend and inflation contained within the 2-3% band. These are the hallmarks...
Jimbaloo's excellent post points to possible tightening in 2014. This one is not so positive, as it points to rates on hold. Whatever the case, it's still positive for AUD, because the previous consensus was for 1 rate cut in 2014.

Article on recent AUD strength:

http://www.theage.com.au/business/ma...325-35eu1.html

And finally a chart, showing AUD upside break is confirmed:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD_2014-03-24.jpg Size: 120 KB
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,749
  • Mar 24, 2014 6:23pm Mar 24, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil I am short this one and naturally want it to tank {image}
yeap, olu!

the PB is the sign given me the green light to short
+ histogram bars are < 0
+ at the level with 2x PB of Feb 13/14 and Dec 27/30


hope she will sunk
cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cl-oildaily.png Size: 31 KB
  • #3,750
  • Mar 25, 2014 3:21am Mar 25, 2014 3:21am
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} yeap, olu! the PB is the sign given me the green light to short + histogram bars are < 0 + at the level with 2x PB of Feb 13/14 and Dec 27/30 hope she will sunk cheers {image}
Hope so too Tlpfx but so far she is playing games...Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,751
  • Mar 25, 2014 3:25am Mar 25, 2014 3:25am
Quoting vox dei
Quoting from AUD/USD thread: {quote} Jimbaloo's excellent post points to possible tightening in 2014. This one is not so positive, as it points to rates on hold. Whatever the case, it's still positive for AUD, because the previous consensus was for 1 rate cut in 2014. Article on recent AUD strength: http://www.theage.com.au/business/ma...325-35eu1.html...
Great chart Vox Dei. There is strength in aud at the moment. As we speak the price is on the 200sma.Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,752
  • Mar 25, 2014 5:47pm Mar 25, 2014 5:47pm
***Help Guys. I cant upload charts. When I click on the #upload from computer' link I get taken to the homepage instead of opening the files dialog box. What am I doing wrong here? I upload every day (almost) on FF but it's just not working.*****
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,753
  • Mar 25, 2014 5:48pm Mar 25, 2014 5:48pm
Gold long term
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold-weekly-25032014-2210uk.jpg Size: 116 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,754
  • Mar 25, 2014 5:49pm Mar 25, 2014 5:49pm
usdcad - looking for more upside
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,755
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:09am Mar 26, 2014 3:09am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hope so too Tlpfx but so far she is playing games...Olu
The crude oil trade initially went well but was stopped out. When price took out the lower channel boundaries I lowered the stop a bit - still giving it room to move. It turned out that it wanted more room (to roam lol). Still very bearish this one and will get back in

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,756
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:13am Mar 26, 2014 3:13am
Quoting Olu
EurAud {image} {image}
1.5000 reached this morning. Now let's see what action we will get - bounce or breakthrough. If the new Aud strength does not let us down and the ECB keeps trying to jawbone the euro down we might have our 700 pips H&S target

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,757
  • Edited 4:37am Mar 26, 2014 4:03am | Edited 4:37am
Quoting Olu
{quote} 1.5000 reached this morning. Now let's see what action we will get - bounce or breakthrough. If the new Aud strength does not let us down and the ECB keeps trying to jawbone the euro down we might have our 700 pips H&S target Olu
AUD pairs are a fine sight to behold

EDIT
~9h30 GMT: Just noticed all AUD pairs are trying to clear some sort of Support/Resistance atm. Mostly monthly highs/lows. ADR is already extended early London, and some gain consolidation is due, but I'm inclined to think we might see further ADR extension until S/R is cleared.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,758
  • Mar 26, 2014 6:32am Mar 26, 2014 6:32am
Quoting vox dei
Year 2013: 3. CHF
Quoting vox dei
2014 YTD: 4. CHF
Quoting vox dei
March MTD: 6. CHF
Quoting vox dei
Previous Week: 8. CHF
CHF is a strong currency that has been showing steady weakening. Not recommending any action at this time, just increased preparedness.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF W1.jpg Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF D1.jpg Size: 157 KB
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,759
  • Mar 26, 2014 8:37am Mar 26, 2014 8:37am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} AUD pairs are a fine sight to behold EDIT ~9h30 GMT: Just noticed all AUD pairs are trying to clear some sort of Support/Resistance atm. Mostly monthly highs/lows. ADR is already extended early London, and some gain consolidation is due, but I'm inclined to think we might see further ADR extension until S/R is cleared.
You are right VoxDei aud is flying. And the eurusd is tanking. The weekly chart now looks very bearish. The ecb is jawboning the euro down in a roundabout way. And yes I think sone consolidation is due for the aud. it might not be by much though because the 200sma break might be inviting the big players

olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,760
  • Mar 26, 2014 8:41am Mar 26, 2014 8:41am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} CHF is a strong currency that has been showing steady weakening. Not recommending any action at this time, just increased preparedness. {image} {image}
I agree with you again about chf. Talk about similar thinking. We just need to find a good reason and place to get on board if this weakness proves sustainable.

olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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