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NZD/USD

  • #3,761
  • Mar 22, 2014 6:23pm Mar 22, 2014 6:23pm
NZD/USD looks bearish. I would set a TP at 0.84229

Nonetheless...before that happens It seems like price will make a slight bull move up to 0.86000 as a retest before it heads back down.
Take what the market gives you.
  • #3,762
  • Mar 23, 2014 10:23am Mar 23, 2014 10:23am
The NZD/USD has been one of the strongest currency pairs this past month but Wednesday’s bearish engulfing pattern may have put a near term top in place.

It looks like a false breakout may have occurred this week. It’s up to price to let us know what to do next. If we get a break of 0.8500 which was Thursday low, look for a quick fall to 0.8400 this coming week.

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  • #3,763
  • Mar 24, 2014 1:25am Mar 24, 2014 1:25am
Hello NZ

The AUD/NZ going up a bit

not sure how far as NZ

has not retraced at all

Is it AUD turn to get strong soon:nerd:
  • #3,764
  • Mar 24, 2014 12:55pm Mar 24, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Yeah true. I'm short 0.8559 expecting 0.8533 and possibly lower. Price might want to re-affirm 0.8513 support. Happy trading!
Support confirmed and price has been rising steadily since then.
Lets see if 0.8563 will pose any resistance.
  • #3,765
  • Edited 9:23pm Mar 25, 2014 3:21am | Edited 9:23pm
slow creep up, 86 is doable. and possibly 88 next month.

been going up for 5 weeks now continuous, it needs a rest though at one of these points.
  • #3,766
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:35am Mar 26, 2014 1:35am
Trade Balance for this pair tomorrow! This is definitely going to be a make it or break it moment for this pair..
This is sort of interesting, could it mean a less than expected Trade Balance?
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/81993...#axzz2x2y6nbfx
I don't understand why our trade balance would be so great when our currency is so damn high also!
It's my belief that the long awaited break move down with this pair will be on this move. We'll just have to see though.
  • #3,767
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:46am Mar 26, 2014 1:46am
now 86 pretty much done. now what. it could go to 87-88 all time highs, this pair is extremely bullish.

it will take an economic issue for it to have any down weeks.
  • #3,768
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:50am Mar 26, 2014 1:50am
0.864 resistance is still quite strong. If this pair cannot close today above 0.86, look for sell toward 0.85 first then 0.84
  • #3,769
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:58am Mar 26, 2014 1:58am
Quoting Halba
now 86 pretty much done. now what. it could go to 87-88 all time highs, this pair is extremely bullish. it will take an economic issue for it to have any down weeks.
NZ's entire economy is based from trade with other countries. Given the recently higher rate for this pair over the last month I find it difficult to see why other countries would be buying more stuff from us with a higher exchange rate..its because of this I think the trade balance is going to come out less than expected and see the rate go down so that other countries do begin to start trading with us more again. The article I posted above regarding Fonterra I also find extremely interesting given they play a huge part in our exporting industry..
  • #3,770
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:09am Mar 26, 2014 2:09am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} NZ's entire economy is based from trade with other countries. Given the recently higher rate for this pair over the last month I find it difficult to see why other countries would be buying more stuff from us with a higher exchange rate..its because of this I think the trade balance is going to come out less than expected and see the rate go down so that other countries do begin to start trading with us more again. The article I posted above regarding Fonterra I also find extremely interesting given they play a huge part in our exporting...
could be painful until about 90 cents imho. but speculation and hedge funds rule this market, they can take it up anywhere anytime.
  • #3,771
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:18am Mar 26, 2014 2:18am
Hello NZ

This turd must be due for a retrace

but my longs keep spewing out green pips

Reading next few months 0.88:nerd:
  • #3,772
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:25am Mar 26, 2014 2:25am
definitely due for a breather. it has had nearly every week up in the past 8 weeks. could keep going though u never know in this. i saw in past data tests, up to 14 weeks positive continuous without a break on different pairs.
  • #3,773
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:43am Mar 26, 2014 2:43am
i am still hold long no matter happen
simple is better
  • #3,774
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:49am Mar 26, 2014 2:49am
Quoting Halba
{quote} could be painful until about 90 cents imho. but speculation and hedge funds rule this market, they can take it up anywhere anytime.
Very true, and definitely something to always acknowledge. However I still see the role of the RBNZ being a more influential one in deciding if they need highs to ease off a little for the good of our export sector. At the end of the day, anything can happen though. Despite this however I am under the opinion we may see a move down during the TB release, even if its only for retracing purposes..
To me the bigger question is are we topping out on this pair or only getting ready for greater moves up..
  • #3,775
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:50am Mar 26, 2014 2:50am
Quoting kampred
i am still hold long no matter happen
Yeah all good if you got in nice in low

still it can an will drop its load

thinking 0.85
  • #3,776
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:26am Mar 26, 2014 3:26am
Quoting eliteincome
{quote} Yeah all good if you got in nice in low still it can an will drop its load thinking 0.85
im thinking 0.9 as my target
simple is better
  • #3,777
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:09am Mar 26, 2014 4:09am
Quoting eliteincome
{quote} Yeah all good if you got in nice in low still it can an will drop its load thinking 0.85
I shorted this pair last week, it hit my stop and I flipped long.

Milk prices are high, people all over starting to buy more dairy, NZ with interest rates is even more supportive. .80xx maybe a multiyear low. Chances of hitting .9+ (even parity?) are higher than before. Same with AUDNZD.

I am not much for e waves, but a look at daily may have this pair going to .8850-89xx in the next couple months.
  • #3,778
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:31am Mar 26, 2014 4:31am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I shorted this pair last week, it hit my stop and I flipped long. Milk prices are high, people all over starting to buy more dairy, NZ with interest rates is even more supportive. .80xx maybe a multiyear low. Chances of hitting .9+ (even parity?) are higher than before. Same with AUDNZD. I am not much for e waves, but a look at daily may have this pair going to .8850-89xx in the next couple months.
Yes, an e wave or 5th wave, whichever you like, it will reach at least where it hit the upper channel line at about 0.8750. Then start looking for reversal pattern.
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  • #3,779
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:34am Mar 26, 2014 4:34am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Yes, an e wave or 5th wave, whichever you like, it will reach at least where it hit the upper channel line at about 0.8750. Then start looking for reversal pattern. {image}
I don't think there will be any big reversal below .805x for years to come. High rates, demand for dairy, etc. are here to stay. Bad economy? people still buy milk.

I am looking, as of now, for parity across a couple NZD pairs.
  • #3,780
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:38am Mar 26, 2014 4:38am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I don't think there will be any big reversal below .805x for years to come. High rates, demand for dairy, etc. are here to stay. Bad economy? people still buy milk. I am looking, as of now, for parity across a couple NZD pairs.
nothing is guaranteed. if people need milk why was nzd struggling for a few years before. the economy is more broad based. milk is only a few $bn out of a $250bn economy.
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