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AUD/USD

  • #74,861
  • Mar 23, 2014 6:16pm Mar 23, 2014 6:16pm
Quoting ozboy
{quote} Not shorting any more? Dont u remember ur last video said start shorting lolz
Watch for a possible move back to the Daily pivot at 0.9070 before the continuation up. PA is attempting to close the gap at present.
Money Makes Money
  • #74,862
  • Mar 23, 2014 7:28pm Mar 23, 2014 7:28pm
I took a sell position earlier, working out quite well... will lock in breakeven before China news tonight. Hopefully news will continue to push pair down.

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  • #74,863
  • Mar 23, 2014 7:35pm Mar 23, 2014 7:35pm
Gone long with half a clip (0.50)
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,864
  • Mar 23, 2014 7:47pm Mar 23, 2014 7:47pm
Guys, look at 240TF is forming the right tip of the head and shoulder? If the Chinese news come negative, it should drive to the south, let's keep watching!!!!
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  • #74,865
  • Mar 23, 2014 8:41pm Mar 23, 2014 8:41pm
Stop moved to BE+1

Quoting josh1125
I took a sell position earlier, working out quite well... will lock in breakeven before China news tonight. Hopefully news will continue to push pair down. {image}
  • #74,866
  • Mar 23, 2014 8:54pm Mar 23, 2014 8:54pm
Took another long @ 0.90557 for half a clip, bought on dip
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,867
  • Mar 23, 2014 8:56pm Mar 23, 2014 8:56pm
AUD/USD - Short Trade


Cha Ching !!
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Take what the market gives you.
  • #74,868
  • Mar 23, 2014 8:56pm Mar 23, 2014 8:56pm
Quoting whackdiddy
Took another long @ 0.90557 for half a clip, bought on dip
So I take it you assumed that this bad data was priced in. Im curious. How much more Bad data is priced in?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,869
  • Mar 23, 2014 9:12pm Mar 23, 2014 9:12pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} So I take it you assumed that this bad data was priced in. Im curious. How much more Bad data is priced in?
I am starting to catch the technical chartist bug, news release is a slight diversion of trend.
The news was only .4 away from previous . But psychologically everybody looks at the forecast and when under goes "oh no we are doomed".
We saw this last month and the AUD still rallied higher, nothing is pushing this sucker down at the moment, nothing.

My analysis above still holds, only the option to buy in lower for more pips presented itself.
The clouds that have formed are wispy thin, meaning that resistance is very flimsy so even a slight bull run will smash through the clouds.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,870
  • Mar 23, 2014 9:15pm Mar 23, 2014 9:15pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
based on my calculation..as long as 9090 level is not breached..aud should follow thru with its downmove.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #74,871
  • Mar 23, 2014 9:21pm Mar 23, 2014 9:21pm
If support is broken, could see a test of .9000, but I don't think we will see a major push until liquidity comes into the market. We have a series of PMI data which could set the market for risk. Could trend lower till then, while resistance looks good at .9088
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #74,872
  • Mar 23, 2014 9:21pm Mar 23, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} I am starting to catch the technical chartist bug, news release is a slight diversion of trend. The news was only .4 away from previous . But psychologically everybody looks at the forecast and when under goes "oh no we are doomed". We saw this last month and the AUD still rallied higher, nothing is pushing this sucker down at the moment, nothing. My analysis above still holds, only the option to buy in lower for more pips presented itself. The clouds that have formed are wispy thin, meaning that resistance is very flimsy so even a slight...
I would tell you Whackdiddy that the reason last time it didnt tank was ppl were pricing in the new lunar holiday this is now with everything even this is a bad report point blank additionally technically the trend is bearish below the daily 200EMA is bearish above is bullish I'm not saying that ur wrong and I'm not sure whether ur a swing trader or scalper but I think we have to go down before up couple that with the less dovish approach coming from yellen then expected it reminds me of when the GBP/USD was @1.48 they said carney could even bring this down to parity not only did it go up but has been over a 2000 pip rally not saying AUD will tank like that ( I don't know) but again it just had a significant reaction against an important resistance level good news from US bad news from China its hard to justify a buy but we shall see good luck my friend all the best
  • #74,873
  • Mar 23, 2014 9:29pm Mar 23, 2014 9:29pm
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} I would tell you Whackdiddy that the reason last time it didnt tank was ppl were pricing in the new lunar holiday this is now with everything even this is a bad report point blank additionally technically the trend is bearish below the daily 200EMA is bearish above is bullish I'm not saying that ur wrong and I'm not sure whether ur a swing trader or scalper but I think we have to go down before up couple that with the less dovish approach coming from yellen then expected it reminds me of when the GBP/USD was @1.48 they said carney could...
Thanks champ, yeah I am playing a risk on a swing trade.. I should elaborate here so it sounds like I am not simply gambling. Doing the research above and following the AUD for a while now my mindset has changed to bullish sentiment for the AUD. If good news from US release it may simply correct the bad from China, if bad ...?

My M1 is very close to showing a buy signal
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,874
  • Mar 23, 2014 9:30pm Mar 23, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} Thanks champ, yeah I am playing a risk on a swing trade.. My M1 is very close to showing a buy signal
Signal achieved, there are still bulls buying dips.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,875
  • Mar 23, 2014 11:31pm Mar 23, 2014 11:31pm
Here is 4h TF with every possible scenario labeled and explained on here from my perspective.

1 & 2 is the range were in .9134 Resistance and .9000 Area is support were in that range

3 Down Trend Support Line

4 Up trend Support Line

5 Down Trend Resistance Line.

So this is any possible outcome that can occur via 4H TF

It can either bounce back in the channel down to .9000 Support Area

It could break straight through All of this trend lines all the way up or down

It could break through the Down resistance line and make an attempt at .9134 area

Either way slicing this chart up into pieces you eliminate the possibility of surprise by anticipating and seeing every type of slope vertical support/resistance

It works really well.
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There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #74,876
  • Mar 23, 2014 11:37pm Mar 23, 2014 11:37pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
area between 9090 and 9080 is a no man's land..
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #74,877
  • Mar 24, 2014 12:07am Mar 24, 2014 12:07am
Quoting palabara
Here is 4h TF with every possible scenario labeled and explained on here from my perspective. 1 & 2 is the range were in .9134 Resistance and .9000 Area is support were in that range 3 Down Trend Support Line 4 Up trend Support Line 5 Down Trend Resistance Line. So this is any possible outcome that can occur via 4H TF It can either bounce back in the channel down to .9000 Support Area It could break straight through All of this trend lines all the way up or down It could break through the Down resistance line and make an attempt at .9134 area Either...
Nice one.
I am seeing clouds 26 points in front of current timeframe showing more upward movement.

On the M30 is appears that we tried to break support but failed and are now continuing the upward trend although at a reduced strength, however this is partly expected due to the Australian / Tokyo session only being in play at the moment, the UK session open will be a good sign and indicator once the banks come online.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,878
  • Mar 24, 2014 12:28am Mar 24, 2014 12:28am
It's building a right shoulder now.
  • #74,879
  • Mar 24, 2014 12:29am Mar 24, 2014 12:29am
M15 - Appear to be hitting a bit of resistance at the 0.90857 < oh nope we just punched through, this is significant as it is a strong bit of resistance (thick cloud). We are still in the cloud so not smooth sailing just yet and lingering around the resistance level stated.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,880
  • Mar 24, 2014 12:35am Mar 24, 2014 12:35am
Quoting whackdiddy
M15 - Appear to be hitting a bit of resistance at the 0.90857 < oh nope we just punched through, this is significant as it is a strong bit of resistance (thick cloud). We are still in the cloud so not smooth sailing just yet and lingering around the resistance level stated.
Closed both longs, first slightly in the red, second with nice green to compensate the red.
Will wait until UK session before re-entry. Yes old yella struck again (I got scared and think this might turn).

2.5% gain for a wicked no trade Monday.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
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