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AUD/JPY

  • #881
  • Mar 19, 2014 8:24am Mar 19, 2014 8:24am
Quoting Jeremy Oak
{quote} Good Call
Thanks Jeremy.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #882
  • Mar 19, 2014 8:41am Mar 19, 2014 8:41am
Quoting ThunderDome
Anyone else taking little longer trade on audjpy? {image}
I am actually short from the 91.5 area with SL above your first TP target so theoretically we can both come out green GOOD LUCK

Interesting chart at the moment.

Price hunkering down right on the daily pivot as well as the 10 and 50MA. Also sitting just above some fib line confluence support. Multiple trendline rejections on the 4H, something has got to give and we are going to find out soon. FOMC statement soon, Kuroda speaking later tonight.

I am hoping we see a break lower to the 92 area which may trigger stops for a run below. A break higher likely we see the 91.8 area. I only have a little breathing room above that level before my trade becomes invalid.


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ 4H.JPG Size: 147 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #883
  • Mar 20, 2014 11:14pm Mar 20, 2014 11:14pm
Interesting battle taking place at the 92.80 level. This is the fifth attempt at this level on the daily. We have confluence resistance from two fibs along with the R1 pivot.

AJ gained strength on the heels of UJ strength from the post Yellen rant, then after retreating AJ gained strength on the heels of bounce up by the Ozzie after post Yellen 100 pip bashing. Seems the AJ has been temporarily puffed up to me.

IMO, daily close above this level takes us back to 93.15 next week with a possible run higher, rejection in London session may see a snap back to daily pivot at 92.45 and possibly even 92.20 level with any type of risk off catalyst.

Just wanted to put something up on my favorite pair since this thread is usually pretty lifeless.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ DAILY BATTLE.JPG Size: 98 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #884
  • Mar 21, 2014 6:53pm Mar 21, 2014 6:53pm
Hey Exop33,

Great analysis and thanks for keeping the thread alive

I agree with your short, and expect at least a 40-50 pip fall?

http://charts.mql5.com/4/233/audjpy-...-markets-2.png
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #885
  • Mar 22, 2014 4:22am Mar 22, 2014 4:22am
Quoting AussieForexM
Hey Exop33, Great analysis and thanks for keeping the thread alive I agree with your short, and expect at least a 40-50 pip fall? {image}
Thanks mate!

Friday's late session was a wild one. Not sure if it was from low liquidity or market makers hunting stops, but both levels of interest were tested as suspected. I do think we will test the 91.20 level this week. I will have a chart up tomorrow night hopefully, some interesting technicals happening IMO.

Not a lot of news this week from down under or Japan. Chinese Flash PMI on Sunday may be the catalyst if it misses the projection either way.

Hopefully others will chime in on this thread. The spreads on AJ aren't too bad and there is usually decent price action to boot.

Good trading to all
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #886
  • Mar 22, 2014 5:00am Mar 22, 2014 5:00am
Hello Expo33.. Thanks for bringing back this thread to live again, i am with you guys, trying to trade this pair AUD/JPY..hope we can share thought together, BTW i am expecting long next week for AUD/JPY
  • #887
  • Mar 23, 2014 12:01am Mar 23, 2014 12:01am
Quoting iyas120
Hello Expo33.. Thanks for bringing back this thread to live again, i am with you guys, trying to trade this pair AUD/JPY..hope we can share thought together, BTW i am expecting long next week for AUD/JPY
You're welcome. I also would love to see some more AJ posters to share and learn from.

My position:
Short at 92.96
SL at 93.27 (10 pips above R1)
TP at 91.96 ( 8 pips above S3)
RR 3.22 to 1

My simplistic thinking: (completely useless according to my ex wife)
#1) Fifth daily close and rejection at 3 tier confluence resistance level 92.81 (now the daily pivot)
#2) If Chinese flash PMI doesnt come in unexpectedly high then I don't see any other big fundamental movers early in the week that may propel AJ above R1. I expect US equities to start out fairly subdued, especially now that the market has had a chance to digest the Yellen statement, i.e no big risk on sentiment
#3) Trendline support from start of big early February move looks like an appetizing area for another bounce higher for the bulls

Note: If AJ explodes up to the 93.5 area on Sunday, then I will be curled up in my closet in the fetal position

Good luck traders!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ajaj.JPG Size: 117 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #888
  • Mar 23, 2014 12:27am Mar 23, 2014 12:27am
And now for my fantasy:

Fundamental bombshell comes out of nowhere and initiates the potential completion of leg CD of a simple ABCD harmonic pattern
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hh.JPG Size: 91 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #889
  • Mar 23, 2014 2:19am Mar 23, 2014 2:19am
Quoting Expo33
And now for my fantasy: Fundamental bombshell comes out of nowhere and initiates the potential completion of leg CD of a simple ABCD harmonic pattern {image}
Hey there... This might just be a newbie mistake, but when were your screen shots taken? My appear to be different

http://charts.mql5.com/4/239/audjpy-...al-markets.png
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  • #890
  • Mar 23, 2014 1:22pm Mar 23, 2014 1:22pm
I have a couple of different platforms which close an hour apart on Sunday so they usually show differing prices. With the nonexistent liquidity the spreads show like 20 pips.

Here is a screenshot of my Oanda app which closes an hour later. Honestly, I couldn't say with any accuracy where the true price may be
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 138 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #891
  • Mar 23, 2014 4:46pm Mar 23, 2014 4:46pm
Hi All,

I am Expecting to go long today because there a Enluft bar that form after pinbar for the last 3 bar. So my point of view, the buyer are stronger, until a sign of weakness of buyer i will expecting a long position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpydaily.png Size: 61 KB
  • #892
  • Mar 23, 2014 5:14pm Mar 23, 2014 5:14pm
Huge battle going on... Volumes are through the roof!

Come-on Bears
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #893
  • Mar 23, 2014 5:48pm Mar 23, 2014 5:48pm
Quoting AussieForexM
Huge battle going on... Volumes are through the roof! Come-on Bears
Looking for the confirmation signal.. and confirmation that bears are in control.. the trade is still young
  • #894
  • Mar 23, 2014 5:57pm Mar 23, 2014 5:57pm
i think audjpy will be have a little drop..today ..will sell it at 200 pips
  • #895
  • Mar 23, 2014 6:29pm Mar 23, 2014 6:29pm
Quoting 1107251
i think audjpy will be have a little drop..today ..will sell it at 200 pips
dont do anything before the Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI
  • #896
  • Mar 23, 2014 6:34pm Mar 23, 2014 6:34pm
Quoting iyas120
Hi All, I am Expecting to go long today because there a Enluft bar that form after pinbar for the last 3 bar. So my point of view, the buyer are stronger, until a sign of weakness of buyer i will expecting a long position. {image}
Hi, can u share ur template to me ?
I am interesting on ur template. look complete info and competitive !
  • #897
  • Mar 23, 2014 7:11pm Mar 23, 2014 7:11pm
Shorts triggered on the release. I am keeping them open. The downside/profit potential is far more than any move upward can give any trader. NIKKEI also is about to break the neckline of a H&S pattern top @ 14,200.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 26 KB
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #898
  • Mar 23, 2014 7:18pm Mar 23, 2014 7:18pm
Quoting 1107251
i think audjpy will be have a little drop..today ..will sell it at 200 pips
As predicted, nice little drop, then an equal rebound....
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #899
  • Mar 23, 2014 7:19pm Mar 23, 2014 7:19pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} As predicted, nice little drop, then an equal rebound....
Did you predict anything else past this? Cause its a little obvious that the post is after the fact.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #900
  • Mar 23, 2014 7:30pm Mar 23, 2014 7:30pm
Quoting waifong
{quote} Hi, can u share ur template to me ? I am interesting on ur template. look complete info and competitive !
I Got the templete from here, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=210461
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