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  • #11,321
  • Mar 21, 2014 9:17pm Mar 21, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting PipKiller
{quote} For someone going long only or short only, the reward to risk ratio they are shooting for is 5:1 or better. It's simple math. If you were trading the same lot size all month, in 10 trades, if you had 50% small losses, a couple stopped at break even, a couple small wins and only one that reaches target you would be 20 pips positive for the month. -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 0 0 +10 +10 +100 =+20
I get the math but that seems like a meager amount of monthly pips for the time and effort of deploying the strategy!
  • #11,322
  • Mar 22, 2014 12:57am Mar 22, 2014 12:57am
Quoting Wigglesworth
{quote} I get the math but that seems like a meager amount of monthly pips for the time and effort of deploying the strategy!
Some of us can live very nicely on only 20 pips a month.

And 98% lose more than 20 pips a month... Some lose 10 times that a day.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #11,323
  • Mar 22, 2014 4:15am Mar 22, 2014 4:15am
Quoting PipKiller
{quote} Some of us can live very nicely on only 20 pips a month. And 98% lose more than 20 pips a month... Some lose 10 times that a day.
Your math has a serious error:
Here a very likely example in live trading ...

-20
-20
-20
-20
-20
0
0
+10
+10
no +100 ..... just +10 (price turned at +95 pips)

= -70

The next month should be much better run than your example with +20 pips.

Regards
  • #11,324
  • Mar 22, 2014 5:24am Mar 22, 2014 5:24am
Quoting Claudius
Jeet, I use Armada Markets and Pepperstone. No big issues so far (since a couple of years). Low spreads, good execution times, pretty reliable. Next week (monday and tuesday) Flash Manufacturing and German IFO... gotta trade them manually but on my ipad, which is not the best tool.
Thanks Claudius i will check both of them next week have a niceweek end..
  • #11,325
  • Mar 22, 2014 6:07am Mar 22, 2014 6:07am
Quoting jeetvirk
{quote} Thanks Claudius i will check both of them next week have a niceweek end..
Pepperstone, I can't recommend it.
Disconnection and sometimes gaps.
Gaps can destroy your account. No price - no SL.
My advice:
I would always work with a equity ea, if the SL was not possible.
The expert does not help if you have additional disconnections.

Regards
  • #11,326
  • Mar 22, 2014 11:14am Mar 22, 2014 11:14am
Quoting PipKiller
{quote} Some of us can live very nicely on only 20 pips a month. And 98% lose more than 20 pips a month... Some lose 10 times that a day.
PipKiller...Thanks for the response.. Hope you are having a good weekend...Reminds me of a joke by comedian Steve Martin who says "its easy to make $1 million...simply get $950K and invest it at 10%!!!

Just to run by the math on a yearly basis and assuming consistency in the model:

240 Pips earned
_____________ = a 10% pip risk to reward ratio...
2400 Pips risked (invested)

So to keep the math easy, a $100,000 account risking 1% or $1,000 per trade on 10 trades would make $1,000 per month or $12,000 per year...Of course we can change the MM rules and the returns would fluctuate accordingly..Is this what you meant by living nicely? All the best!!
  • #11,327
  • Mar 22, 2014 11:15am Mar 22, 2014 11:15am
Quoting mvp77
{quote} Your math has a serious error: Here a very likely example in live trading ... -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 0 0 +10 +10 no +100 ..... just +10 (price turned at +95 pips) = -70 The next month should be much better run than your example with +20 pips. Regards
Are these the numbers you are experiencing?
  • #11,328
  • Mar 22, 2014 2:31pm Mar 22, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting Wigglesworth
{quote} PipKiller...Thanks for the response.. Hope you are having a good weekend...Reminds me of a joke by comedian Steve Martin who says "its easy to make $1 million...simply get $950K and invest it at 10%!!! Just to run by the math on a yearly basis and assuming consistency in the model: 240 Pips earned _____________ = a 10% pip risk to reward ratio... 2400 Pips risked (invested) So to keep the math easy, a $100,000 account risking 1% or $1,000 per trade on 10 trades would make $1,000 per month or $12,000 per year...Of course we can change...

Depends on where you live. In some countries you'ld be living like a king on $1k a month. Me, $3k a month pays my bills, everything over that pays for my toys

Hope you're weekend is going well too. I'm getting a lot of spring cleaning done on my land.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #11,329
  • Mar 22, 2014 2:37pm Mar 22, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting mvp77
{quote} Your math has a serious error: Here a very likely example in live trading ... -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 0 0 +10 +10 no +100 ..... just +10 (price turned at +95 pips) = -70 The next month should be much better run than your example with +20 pips. Regards
This make a pretty good argument for learning how to trail your profits.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #11,330
  • Mar 22, 2014 4:45pm Mar 22, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting PipKiller
{quote} This make a pretty good argument for learning how to trail your profits.
my sentiments exactly! ATR trail FTW!
  • #11,331
  • Mar 22, 2014 8:31pm Mar 22, 2014 8:31pm
Ok this makes sense. I have 2 questions:

Is there a formula that shows the probabilities of this tactic. Going only long/short or trading both long and short? I would love to read more on this!

Question 2 is how do you choose what stick with, long or short?

Thanks
  • #11,332
  • Mar 23, 2014 12:21am Mar 23, 2014 12:21am
german ifo eur/usd, or eur/jpy..

full attack anyone?
  • #11,333
  • Mar 23, 2014 2:10am Mar 23, 2014 2:10am
Quoting nitecop
{quote} my sentiments exactly! ATR trail FTW!
ATR works well. I like using a candle close above/below a 20 SMA or fresh supply and demand levels too. I've found all 3 or these end up with roughly the same result over time.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #11,334
  • Mar 23, 2014 2:16am Mar 23, 2014 2:16am
Hi guys, i want to know which of the major currencies get get stronger with a positive data release of CNY and which ones get weak.
  • #11,335
  • Mar 23, 2014 11:34am Mar 23, 2014 11:34am
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
German Ifo Business Climate
CPI y/y
The beginning of the week comes fast to us!!! Extremely busy
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #11,336
  • Mar 23, 2014 1:45pm Mar 23, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting PipKiller
{quote} For someone going long only or short only, the reward to risk ratio they are shooting for is 5:1 or better. It's simple math. If you were trading the same lot size all month, in 10 trades, if you had 50% small losses, a couple stopped at break even, a couple small wins and only one that reaches target you would be 20 pips positive for the month. -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 0 0 +10 +10 +100 =+20
I don't even understand this example, I guess you are trying to be really conservative here. If you took 10 trades and lost 5 at -20 pips each I would think you would have more than just 1 winner at 100+ pips. Usually, the losers that cost 20 pips are the same trades that are 100+ pip winners. Often times they are 140+ pips winners and the odds are that you would win more than just 1 out of 10.

Even if you are being conservative you should win at least 2 or 3 out of 10. So, now you are looking at least 300+ pips against your 5 losers totaling only -100.
  • #11,337
  • Mar 23, 2014 4:02pm Mar 23, 2014 4:02pm
Quoting Tony112
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Ifo Business Climate CPI y/y The beginning of the week comes fast to us!!! Extremely busy
Hi,Tony!
Do you trade aud cross pairs on HSBC china data or just major? Do you take strong/weak currency against aud? (Cad is strong, (Sell AUDCAD),Euro weak (Sell EURAUD) What is your expectations?
  • #11,338
  • Mar 23, 2014 4:26pm Mar 23, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting Fx3422271
{quote} I don't even understand this example, I guess you are trying to be really conservative here. If you took 10 trades and lost 5 at -20 pips each I would think you would have more than just 1 winner at 100+ pips. Usually, the losers that cost 20 pips are the same trades that are 100+ pip winners. Often times they are 140+ pips winners and the odds are that you would win more than just 1 out of 10. Even if you are being conservative you should win at least 2 or 3 out of 10. So, now you are looking at least 300+ pips against your 5 losers totaling...

That's why I also recommend higher TP. e.g. : NFP trade 15 SL / 200 TP

If 15 SL is hit, rebuild account and wait for next NFP
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #11,339
  • Mar 23, 2014 4:27pm Mar 23, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting Naokia980
{quote} Hi,Tony! Do you trade aud cross pairs on HSBC china data or just major? Do you take strong/weak currency against aud? (Cad is strong, (Sell AUDCAD),Euro weak (Sell EURAUD) What is your expectations?

I' gonna put an eur/aud trade. buy or sell, this is your call.
I'm risking 15 pips TP 200
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #11,340
  • Mar 23, 2014 7:09pm Mar 23, 2014 7:09pm
gearing up for hsbc flash as well, won't be trading eur/aud anymore due to liquidity/slippage problems with dukascopy, will be sticking to major pairs only. Hoping the execution will work better this time.
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