Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

Gut gut ... very tough ...

I don't love to have open active ones over the week-ends ...

See you Monday ...

Have a good one!


;-|

Appointment cancelled so I came back to look into my power and see the future of this market. Analysis to follow.

Hi Temujin,

Good to see you back. Can I ask: where do you see GBP/JPY going?

The S&P hit some kind of record again and banks are now waiting for earnings before they sell. No, they already know what they are going to do and they know valuations are ridiculously high. GBP/JPY can be a risk appetite indicator and we see what is happening with that.

Japan was closed on holiday so it looks like the banks tanked it down to shake out all the longs so when the market opens next week they can score with the Nikkei rally to come. Problem is they are pricing much of it in right now. This market is going to correct like GJ did real soon.

164.86 I think.

A hammer day is a day like it never exists, a typical waste of time.

Could maybe go to 160.00 if 166.4 is crossed.

For me, after the action mid day Thursday we consolidated and then had this mornings breakdown and recovery to yet another wilder/wider consolidation pattern.
Obviously chart patterns are driving future limit order decisions. I will wait for either a break out or break down from this consolidation pattern as the longer it lasts the stronger the ultimate direct could be and maybe to those areas suggested. I guess I take the approach of waiting to see what direction the price action dictates while
digesting and plotting all the very good analysis provided here, ty.

The reason I say 164.86 is because this is the year of the U.S. dollar now, look at GBP/USD and the DOW Jones. Equities are at a near top, China is beginning to see big defaults and has asserted to a growth level of 7.5%. That is all talk, they cook the books all the time. The Euro dollar is at a long time reversal now, USD/CHF is on the rise. The commodity dollars CAD, AUD and even the powerhouse performer NZD are on notice. Credit Suisse, Barclays and Goldman Sachs are expecting a USD bull market. Some banks project this to be multi year.

The riddle of GBP/JPY is on the speculation for more BOJ easing. Language so far has been very noncommittal. The answer to GJ is the time. When will analysts expect the BOJ to throw out another 10 billion a month or even double down on it? We have the April meeting which is looking like a big no and the market senses that then we have the June meeting and more of a chance there. In the mean time the drivers for the pair are gone unless we hit real oversold levels on a session basis. This thing will range until then. The BOE is like the U.S. not raising rates soon so no driver from the English side either.

Forex is all a world of make believe and what I mean by that is what can the banks make you believe? Yesterday I believed based on the PA the pair would hold and grind up higher MPT and others were more prescient than I and saw this thing is breaking down. Anytime banks make you believe and stop you out they take your money. This is all a form of financial warfare by deception. I would not be surprised if these algos have psych components coded in to do the opposite of human sense.

The best trades are when they have no where to go. You've cornered them and stopping volume, neutral PA and all the tricks won't work. There is certain "feel" one only gets with lots screen time and reading news and data. Mine fails and comes back so I mess up and then snap back to it again. I change my mind. At the market open on Monday I can take six trades I'll cancel and finally go with that 7th one until Wednesday and then reformulate.

I'm 14 months into this now but had a master trader as a mentor. At one point I made 400% in 2 weeks. At this time GBP/JPY was 135.00 when the BOJ was still fresh with the programs. He told me Nomura had a price target of 178 on GJ. The problem is he was teaching us complex monetary policies and big player mechanisms with scalping. All he had to do was show us how to enter trades on a longer time frame and we would all be rich by now. The 2 schools (scalping and longer term monetary policy) do not go together. This was a time EUR/JPY was at 112.00 and he knew the price target and told me 140.00. He financed vacations with trades he would put on for 6 months and he should have taught our group to do something similar but instead we were taught 5 min. charts and session trading. This man knew the impact bond purchases of this magnitude would have on these yen crosses. Bittersweet. The group split up and I no longer have any contact with them. Don't know how many are still trading but from time to time I chat with our former mentor. I learned swings, moved the time frame and uncovered the risk ratio and stop loss lies in the industry. Disaster stop, sure but you'll hardly ever catch me using a stop loss they will hit.

To those who read my rant I thank you. I also want to leave you with an awesome weekend movie that shows you what financial trading is all about and what it has become. Some of the parts in the film I had to watch twice, it was that enjoyable and hilarious to me:

Thanks Temujin. I agree. Seems that many commentators are bullish, given FOMC's decision. But, to me it looks like (in this market environment), USD/JPY is overstretched, plus GBP/USD seems bearish also.

you have to at least wait for the close of that candle

I was already short at 169.30 from wednesday after FOMC. It was not a day trading this trade!

Np, I'm going to short the boss, the carry trade driver itself over the weekend EUR/JPY. The BOJ is far from saving it and the ECB is watching carefully for deflation to act. A double whammy. Very different landscape now. Have a good weekend.

profitable traders have the same strategy, charts and indicators..

I agree with a couple of things you said: Why do large doji's occur in a calm market , why do they occur 2 minutes before a large announcement, maybe market makers are trying to make a market in slow time, maybe market makers are wiping out all stops before an announcement. I too hate stops for that reason. I like a lot of price action because I believe with it, the people sticking their fingers in the works stay away and let us do our thing.

I like to "after trade" announcements by about 5 minute because you know exactly when there are going to happen and when they do, exactly, more or less, their direction and I have made myself through practice not to be greedy and to take what profit it gives me not the excessive profit I want.
As far as scalping and long term: I think it is very tough to wear both hats. I have made my worst trades mixing both sets of rules and trying to play both one after the other. I got to be very good at scalping, than lost big because I went long. I broke my rules and got greedy and full of myself. Going back to scalping, even after options trading disasters,I have always pulled myself back out of the fire, its bread and butter and I love it. I would like to hit 10 to 15K trade a couple of times but my common sense has taken me to another place. I will trade 100k long term and look at it as a monthly bonus and stay focused on my scalping because it has always come through. I will not change my success patterns only sharpen them.

I look at trading as a business. I prepare mentally in the mornings over the weekend by looking at last weeks charts, where I missed, where I did good and where I made errors. I write all of them down, keeping copy's on my desk as reference for the week. I figure you have prepare to play and stick to your weekly game plan and follow your playbook.

I will tell you, in my opinion, the hardest thing about trading: After reading book after book, class after class, instruction ,mentor, studying learning etc., is fighting your self, your emotion, your ego, your greed and not believing what you really are seeing even though it is reality. It takes a lot of time and honest self reflection to master all of that. I am still working on it all...

Thank you for your insights... and also your trading experience.

I also believe that keeping a journal and evaluating last weeks trade is an important part of trading... even though I've been a little lax lately... it requires diligence but it is one way that will accelerate the learning process. Thanks for the reminder.

I figure chances are slim, but is that a possible reverse head and shoulders on the H4 chart? Just curious...

Adding -- Also on the 15M and other timeframes. Wondering if this could lead to a cascade up?

Hi Ellis, do you consider this price action to be the breakdown you were waiting for? cheers.

What are we making of this price action - for those still around at this final hour? To me, GBP/JPY seems evermore bearish.