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  • #3,721
  • Mar 19, 2014 12:53pm Mar 19, 2014 12:53pm
audusd
The 200sma is a widely used moving average.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,722
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:28pm Mar 19, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Good call Olu. {image}
Yep. Excellent call Olu. USDCAD IS FLYING
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,723
  • Mar 20, 2014 9:31am Mar 20, 2014 9:31am
Dollar Index
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,724
  • Mar 20, 2014 9:51am Mar 20, 2014 9:51am
Quoting Olu
audusd The 200sma is a widely used moving average. {image}
AudUsd after the Fed Meeting. The 200sma rules. On the other hand if broken it could soar...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,725
  • Mar 20, 2014 10:17am Mar 20, 2014 10:17am
Gold
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,726
  • Mar 20, 2014 10:41am Mar 20, 2014 10:41am
AUD is showing strength despite emerging risks from China. The cash rate is at a historically low level which of course lower's the whole yield curve. Seven months have passed since the last cut and the 'desired' effect has started to show up in core inflation. RBA's inflation target is 2.50%.
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A tightening cycle may be in full gear before 2014 is done.

I prefer to buy it vs. NZD and CAD. Not at any price though. AUDNZD should be bought at 1.0540 and AUDCAD if it retests 1.0080. These are potentially medium term positions. CPI, employment and wage data will obviously be key going forward.
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #3,727
  • Mar 20, 2014 6:50pm Mar 20, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting Olu
Gold {image}
Currently looking weak but I think as long as it doesn't close below the 1325-1326 area, then this fast move down was just a pullback to support. Traded below 1325-1326 area but couldn't close below. The 1350 area was support so now needs to close above 1350 to return to the uptrend so a close above/below this area will probably determine the next bigger move.
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  • #3,728
  • Mar 20, 2014 7:53pm Mar 20, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting Jimbaloo
AUD is showing strength despite emerging risks from China. The cash rate is at a historically low level which of course lower's the whole yield curve. Seven months have passed since the last cut and the 'desired' effect has started to show up in core inflation. RBA's inflation target is 2.50%. {image} A tightening cycle may be in full gear before 2014 is done. I prefer to buy it vs. NZD and CAD. Not at any price though. AUDNZD should be bought at 1.0540 and AUDCAD if it retests 1.0080. These are potentially medium term positions. CPI, employment...

Thanks J for your post. Everytime you post you manage to give evidence to facts that I use but cant substantiate with evidence. You are another Srt. He gives the fundamental dirt on commodities. My hesitation on buying aud is well known on this thread but as I said to Trexy123, if traders are aware of troubles in china and they still want to run up aud despite that who am I not to try and profit from that?

I share your thoughts on audnzd and audcad. Cad is very weak atm and any currency with a bit of strength will do well against it. Will a double bottom play out in the audnzd?
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,729
  • Mar 20, 2014 8:05pm Mar 20, 2014 8:05pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Currently looking weak but I think as long as it doesn't close below the 1325-1326 area, then this fast move down was just a pullback to support. Traded below 1325-1326 area but couldn't close below. The 1350 area was support so now needs to close above 1350 to return to the uptrend so a close above/below this area will probably determine the next bigger move. {image}
Great analysis and chart Srt. Gold is in a precarious position. Working for the long side is the geopolitical uncertainties concerning Russia. Pulling to the short side are stronger $ and lower inflation. It is in a sort of channel upwards and may have just bounced of the lower boundaries of the structure. I dont like the bearish reversal on the right. In my experience price usually uses such candles to mark a significant top. For me a close below 1320 is bad

BTW did you see what coffee did today?

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,730
  • Mar 20, 2014 8:22pm Mar 20, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Great analysis and chart Srt. Gold is in a precarious position. Working for the long side is the geopolitical uncertainties concerning Russia. Pulling to the short side are stronger $ and lower inflation. It is in a sort of channel upwards and may have just bounced of the lower boundaries of the structure. I dont like the bearish reversal on the right. In my experience price usually uses such candles to mark a significant top. For me a close below 1320 is bad BTW did you see what coffee did today? Olu {image}
well said + agreed, olu.
stay out of it if one can't decide.
cheers
  • #3,731
  • Mar 20, 2014 9:08pm Mar 20, 2014 9:08pm
Olu

what's your take on coffee now?
  • #3,732
  • Mar 21, 2014 3:57am Mar 21, 2014 3:57am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Thanks J for your post. Everytime you post you manage to give evidence to facts that I use but cant substantiate with evidence. You are another Srt. He gives the fundamental dirt on commodities. My hesitation on buying aud is well known on this thread but as I said to Trexy123, if traders are aware of troubles in china and they still want to run up aud despite that who am I not to try and profit from that? I share your thoughts on audnzd and audcad. Cad is very weak atm and any currency with a bit of strength will do well against it. Will...

A double bottom could be forming and I might be too greedy with the entry price.

Monthly chart:
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AUDNZD is the most important exchange rate for the New Zealand economy.
It looks like a no-brainer, which makes me wary.

wrt. AUDCAD, in the most promising break-out's price proceeds directly to target which is bad news for my buy-limit order.
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #3,733
  • Mar 21, 2014 6:08am Mar 21, 2014 6:08am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Great analysis and chart Srt. Gold is in a precarious position. Working for the long side is the geopolitical uncertainties concerning Russia. Pulling to the short side are stronger $ and lower inflation. It is in a sort of channel upwards and may have just bounced of the lower boundaries of the structure. I dont like the bearish reversal on the right. In my experience price usually uses such candles to mark a significant top. For me a close below 1320 is bad BTW did you see what coffee did today? Olu {image}
Thanks Olu. Always good to see another perspective of a market in a time of uncertainty.
As for coffee, really crazy. I just never understood the recent huge rally which is why I closed my long so soon. Stocks were 70% above normal with a large crop about to be harvested. Suddenly a little dry weather & the market acted like all the surplus stock was gone. I think the current move lower is showing that a lot of the rally was short covering & momentum traders. If the fundamentals were good I think price would hold up better after the rally. I'm not convinced the dry weather changed the fundamental picture that much. I might be looking to go long but I'll be watching for lower prices first then some sign of a bottom.
  • #3,734
  • Mar 21, 2014 7:44am Mar 21, 2014 7:44am
Quoting trexy123
Olu what's your take on coffee now?
I think we are in retracement mode and proce could go to 155/160 in 3 waves. I think the first one might be over now. Then price could go up as if retesting the bighs and then fall off again. If I am right this commodity could do 200 before all is said and done. That is just my EW long term eyes talking

olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,735
  • Mar 22, 2014 5:19pm Mar 22, 2014 5:19pm
CadJpy
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,736
  • Mar 22, 2014 5:35pm Mar 22, 2014 5:35pm
EurAud
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,737
  • Mar 22, 2014 6:01pm Mar 22, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting Olu
EurAud {image} {image}
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #3,738
  • Mar 22, 2014 6:57pm Mar 22, 2014 6:57pm
Olu how about Usdcad ?
  • #3,739
  • Mar 23, 2014 4:42pm Mar 23, 2014 4:42pm
Quoting trexy123
Olu how about Usdcad ?
Hi Trexy123

For now I believe the usdcad is still going up. We have had the breakout from the triangle as shown on my chart. Now general TA target for this kind of breakout is 300 pips to the upside bit it could be more. Right now perhaps price is testing the borders of the triangle before further take off.Guys its a new week I wish us all loads of pips

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,740
  • Edited 5:01pm Mar 23, 2014 4:47pm | Edited 5:01pm
AudUsd

Guys I am perhaps the most skeptical about aud strength on FF because of China issues. But I cant help thinking what if this is already factored in to the market?
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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