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Price Action and Trading Discussion

  • #4,781
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:38am Mar 19, 2014 3:38am
Quoting GDR3k
Have you seen the new £1 coin they're going to be making? It looks a lot like 1 Euro. http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2...-coin-unveiled Also, theres talk of a special 'surprise' in todays budget, maybe the world is run by reptilians afterall...
Looks suspiciously like our Australian 50 cent piece

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_fifty-cent_coin
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #4,782
  • Edited 5:48am Mar 19, 2014 3:52am | Edited 5:48am
Quoting jen101
{quote} A question for DarkWolf: the market has been quite unpredictable lately, probably to do with all the uncertainty with Russia; you have had next to no trades - how are you avoiding such a difficult market from a technical perspective? I know you avoid congestion; anything else? Could you give me an example of what you look for and what you avoid?
Hi Jen,

Indeed I do try to stay well clear of congestion in the market. There has been quite a lot of that going on.

I also have a very clear set of very simple rules that I trade with. Look for certain areas and certain bars, with certain market conditions. Look at the bigger picture also. It's the discipline to follow that plan that is the hard part at times. Especially in times like these when you have had no trades for a while. Quite often you will find yourself talking yourself into a trade, simply because you have not had one for a while. This is the trap you absolutely need to avoid.

Even tonight when I fired up my chart I was just looking at USDJPY for a short, thinking hmmm ya maybe that might come off. Then I took a moment, reflected on it, checked it again against my plan...... and decided nope, not a good enough set up.

I think the one thing I have learnt over the years is to look for reasons to "not" to take the trade, rather than reasons to take the trade. This way it makes you reflect, really look at bigger picture and hopefully keep you out of the not so desirable trades that you end up regretting, and believe me I have had plenty of those moments over the years.

Sure you will miss a few opportunities by being picky, sometimes more than a few, but if it can keep you out of the bad times then there is half the battle. Trust me... the last 2 weeks have been a battle for me, it can get frustrating when you go a period of time with no trades, as a trader you are always fighting that battle to stick to your trading plan.

I will try and get some images up, but I may not get time to do that tonight.

I do tend to work backwards on the charts when I study my watch lists for the day. So I will look at daily, make some notes, look at 4 hourly, more notes and finally look at hourly. Look at the bigger picture, is what I am seeing on the higher time frames matching up with the directional analysis that I am looking at on the hourly for an entry.

Plan your trade..... Trade your plan.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #4,783
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:27am Mar 19, 2014 4:27am
Quoting DarkWolF
{quote} Hi Jen, Indeed I do try to stay well clear of congestion in the market. There has been quite a lot of that going on. I also have a very clear set of very simple rules that I trade with. Look for certain areas and certain bars, with certain market conditions. Look at the bigger picture also. It's the discipline to follow that plan that is the hard part at times. Especially in times like these when you have had no trades for a while. Quite often you will find yourself talking yourself into a trade, simply because you have not had one for a...
Thank you. Yes, I work backwards too when looking at setups - I start with the weekly, trend and candlestick formation, that is usually quite reliable on the weekly. It just seems that lately price is more haphazard and what would normally be a great setup goes pear shaped.

I have a little solution for those twitchy fingers (when you've had no good setups for a bit...) I play around on a demo account and really anything goes . I make notes in the comment box. Also whenever I get a loss or 2 and my confidence gets knocked, I jump back to my demo until things look better again. Now, I have a number of trades going on demo and it's not going well at all! That's how I know it's probably not me, as I am not trading that differently to normal, but a strange market. So, what I want to know is how to tell when the market is strange without taking a few losses.
  • #4,784
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:33am Mar 19, 2014 4:33am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} I got whooped cross the board.. it's all good though.. been there before, look to bounce back. it's not normal time of market with things happening in Ukraine. still a good trader should make the adjustment and make fit to the condition to make profit or stay above water.. I did not do that today. good to hear you made up the eg loss.
Hey FXE, you'll learn a lot from that. Consider it an invitation to the next level
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #4,785
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:38am Mar 19, 2014 4:38am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Looking to short EURCAD @ 1.5584...
Order hit, let's see how this plays out...it's in a good area to sell on the daily and 4hour IMO...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,786
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:44am Mar 19, 2014 4:44am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Order hit, let's see how this plays out...it's in a good area to sell on the daily and 4hour IMO... {image}
Geez gotta go back a long way to find the resistance area at that level

But certainly is a good area for resistance. Hope it works out well for you.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #4,787
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:51am Mar 19, 2014 4:51am
Quoting DarkWolF
{quote} Geez gotta go back a long way to find the resistance area at that level But certainly is a good area for resistance. Hope it works out well for you.
Indeed I find the longer the market has been away from a level, the higher chance of a move away from the level once the market returns to it.
  • #4,788
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:52am Mar 19, 2014 4:52am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Order hit, let's see how this plays out...it's in a good area to sell on the daily and 4hour IMO... {image}
Good move as the ECB has said it would intervene to keep eurusd below 1.400.
  • #4,789
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:54am Mar 19, 2014 4:54am
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FJt7gNi3Nr4
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #4,790
  • Mar 19, 2014 5:07am Mar 19, 2014 5:07am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Good move as the ECB has said it would intervene to keep eurusd below 1.400.
That's good, all I need now is some aggressive intervention BOJ style.
  • #4,791
  • Mar 19, 2014 5:16am Mar 19, 2014 5:16am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} That's good, all I need now is some aggressive intervention BOJ style.
I'm shorting eurusd with SL waaay above 1.4000 .
  • #4,792
  • Mar 19, 2014 5:26am Mar 19, 2014 5:26am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Indeed I find the longer the market has been away from a level, the higher chance of a move away from the level once the market returns to it.
Indeed
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #4,793
  • Mar 19, 2014 5:45am Mar 19, 2014 5:45am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} Hey FXE, you'll learn a lot from that. Consider it an invitation to the next level

How would you know anything about next level little man, lol. looking for another bitch slap
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #4,794
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:00am Mar 19, 2014 6:00am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} How would you know anything about next level little man, lol. looking for another bitch slap
Thats what I thought
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #4,795
  • Mar 19, 2014 12:26pm Mar 19, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Order hit, let's see how this plays out...it's in a good area to sell on the daily and 4hour IMO... {image}
My target of 60 pips was hit right on FOMC release, I did however forget to cancel my USDJPY short from 101.79 which naturally came in at a loss as the market shot through it faster than a bullet, still, up for the day...for now...

  • #4,796
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:38pm Mar 19, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} My target of 60 pips was hit right on FOMC release, I did however forget to cancel my USDJPY short from 101.79 which naturally came in at a loss as the market shot through it faster than a bullet, still, up for the day...for now...
And I got 100 pips out of eurusd .
  • #4,797
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:01pm Mar 19, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting jen101
{quote} And I got 100 pips out of eurusd .
Good job.

The past 2 weeks have been silly on the markets.
  • #4,798
  • Edited 12:53am Mar 20, 2014 12:38am | Edited 12:53am
I see a lot of talks about market being this and that around the forum and our thread as well.. it's just my perspective on current condition effects..

It sure has been a tough and rough market perhaps over eu matters etc,.. and I for one as a prime example have been severely damage by it, obvious in TE.. but.. I know I can not blame the market or make it the excuse.. it's never the market it's the trader.. I for eg, knew what was going on, knew there is more risk of failure than usual, knew I would need to manage things a bit tighter or not to stay too firm on target reach and etc,.. but I chose to not make the necessary adjustment at times, kept being aggressive like normal times, got away with it a few times in this expand of time till it got me with my bet on au and eu trades.. there is a price for everything as I the master controller of my decisions and path and not the market. If I could not have such control in the profession that I have chosen to be I for one would not ever had got involved, so is the case for most if not all of you.. It's easy to lose site of this fact and blame it all on the market, especially in the heat of the battle when is tougher to see clearly.

I don't think in sitting on the sideline as a cure or safety for such conditions (no offense dwolf, just different view), but I do believe in risk management adjustments on such unique kind of unexpected up in the air situations/conditions. There is a always, if not most times, something going on in the world that has extra effects or retaliation to this market, so IMHO it be harmful to keep on passing on signals. I think losing too much pace in the entry department does more damage than good in the end, but, not with the same defensive/offensive trade management plan, needs some more care than usual to be solid but safe.
overall as bad as of a losses others may have and I have taken i don't think the market has been all that bad.. it has produced some good opportunities to even make money.
bottom line the point of this post, it all comes down to us traders and not the market, it sure sounds like a cliche but in the heat of the battle we are what we are based on our decisions making, which is what counts at the end and not what market is or does or will be or may be etc,.
The worst thing in trading is, not knowing what your doing, as long as you know what your doing and staying in control of destiny and decision making it's just a matter of time to overcome any market condition and set backs.. as I intend to do on this small set back, since it's been witnessed by you from beginning it will continue so with TE staying intact to work it's way out of red to green and greener hopefully.. sure, it's a shame time has wasted but that's the way it goes for us traders, it's just a set back and not much more.. moving on.
..but I would need a long weekend getaway of fun first.. Vegas, hookers and cocaine, will do.. lol

..and of course in the end I must blame it all on jenny.. lol.. I hear now that she is in direct contact with jenny yellen
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #4,799
  • Mar 20, 2014 2:24am Mar 20, 2014 2:24am
Quoting FXEmpire
I see a lot of talks about market being this and that around the forum and our thread as well.. it's just my perspective on current condition effects.. It sure has been a tough and rough market perhaps over eu matters etc,.. and I for one as a prime example have been severely damage by it, obvious in TE.. but.. I know I can not blame the market or make it the excuse.. it's never the market it's the trader.. I for eg, knew what was going on, knew there is more risk of failure than usual, knew I would need to manage things a bit tighter or not to...
I wish I had a way of telling what the market conditions are before placing a trade. I don't, that's why I asked DarkWolf, because he seems to be able to avoid the difficult times. I would like to make adjustments to my trading so my strategy is more resilient to hard times, or be able to tell and do something different, like move down timeframes for example, I don't know. All I do, is after a couple of unexplained losses, I am very quick to get out of live trading. Losses seem to happen in streaks as do wins. I stay in demo until things look brighter.

For what it's worth, I think things might be improving now... Don't blame me if they're not though lol!
  • #4,800
  • Mar 20, 2014 2:30am Mar 20, 2014 2:30am
Quoting FXEmpire
I see a lot of talks about market being this and that around the forum and our thread as well.. it's just my perspective on current condition effects.. It sure has been a tough and rough market perhaps over eu matters etc,.. and I for one as a prime example have been severely (no of the battle we are what we are based on our decisions making, which is what counts at the end and not what market is or does or will be or may be etc,. The worst thing in trading is, not knowing what your doing, as long as you know what your doing and staying in control...
you say "know" too much, just my opinion. Personally I didn't even "know " whatever BS was about to happen, but I just traded my system and made 40% last week. I've been loving the conditions. Not to brag of course because I too have my down times but they are just drops in the ocean, comparison to my up times. Accept that what ever you think is not in fact knowledge but merely... Thought

I think you're overthinking it, but you don't care what I think and that is ok too.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qv96yJYhk3M
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
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