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AUD/USD

  • #74,761
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:34pm Mar 19, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Hillarious! In my head i just keep thinking them saying "awww man! that AUD is good shit!"
you mean that YELLEN is some GOOD shit!


Lyrics to the AUDUSD bulls
"Na, na, na, na
I'm gonna slash and gash
Na, na, na, na
Cut another hole in your ass
Spill blood on the walls and play tennis with your balls
If the phone rings
Don't answer the call
I'm gonna slit your throat, fuck you like a goat
Peel your foreskin off and make a Winter coat
Peace!"
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,762
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:36pm Mar 19, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Todays down move from FOMC is a BIG NONO for AUDUSD to gain. huge rejection on a test of the downtrend.
Indeed. Nothing to add here.

Interesting situation for AUDUSD though. Any downward movement was so far swiftly rejected too in recent weeks. I think it is safe to say AUDUSD is boxed in a somewhat rising channel between roughly 0,8910-0,9130. Any push out of it was vigorously refused. So should we trade.
  • #74,763
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:39pm Mar 19, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} Indeed. Nothing to add here. Interesting situation for AUDUSD though. Any downward movement was so far swiftly rejected too in recent weeks. I think it is safe to say AUDUSD is boxed in a somewhat rising channel between roughly 0,8910-0,9130. Any push out of it was vigorously refused. So should we trade.
i would say the up move was due to the fact the markets had a drop in liquidity due to the whole Ukraine crisis, thank god for liquidity to come shooting right back in on FOMC....
i knew the market was waiting for something. was unusual to see AUDUSD moving 10-20 pips per candle on a 4 Hour chart....
as if it was coiling up for a big move and BANG. FOMC+Yellen.... AUDUSD drops 80 pips in 1x H4 candle....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,764
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:44pm Mar 19, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting fxtyrant
nice fakeout though, lots of bull got caught longing thinking we have a confirmed breakout above.
no break north, fake or otherwise today - may depend on time zone though

AU M15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #74,765
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:46pm Mar 19, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i would say the up move was due to the fact the markets had a drop in liquidity due to the whole Ukraine crisis, thank god for liquidity to come shooting right back in on FOMC.... i knew the market was waiting for something. was unusual to see AUDUSD moving 10-20 pips per candle on a 4 Hour chart.... as if it was coiling up for a big move and BANG. FOMC+Yellen.... AUDUSD drops 80 pips in 1x H4 candle....

This observation on top of so many others to hint that this move wasn't going to go on uninterrupted.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,766
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:48pm Mar 19, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} This observation on top of so many others to hint that this move wasn't going to go on uninterrupted.
It was very strange that Risk pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD all were creeping up when ukraine's tension isnt really solved is really awkward.
for me i didnt buy into the bullshit of it creeping up.
more like the market was coiling up for a big move on low liquidity, and when the BIG liquidity comes back in, we know exactly which direction the Big money is going.


Right im watching the FOMC press conference.
Yellen sure sounds much better than Bernanke.
atleast i understand Yellen much more than Bernanke... Bernanke was a wishy washy little bugger.
Yellen is quite straightforward....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,767
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:51pm Mar 19, 2014 1:51pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} It was very strange that Risk pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD all were creeping up when ukraine's tension isnt really solved is really awkward. for me i didnt buy into the bullshit of it creeping up. more like the market was coiling up for a big move on low liquidity, and when the BIG liquidity comes back in, we know exactly which direction the Big money is going. Right im watching the FOMC press conference. Yellen sure sounds much better than Bernanke. atleast i understand Yellen much more than Bernanke... Bernanke was a wishy washy little...

  • #74,768
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:56pm Mar 19, 2014 1:56pm
"Yellen says almost nothing has changed since December in the overall assessment of the outlook."

LOL! The market is not driven by logic, it is driven by emotions like greed and panic.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #74,769
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:57pm Mar 19, 2014 1:57pm
It was a really good opportunity to short above 9100. You had a nice pullback in a clear downtrend with the Daily 200 SMA just above. The world has some calamity going on as well. It doesn't really get much better than that.
  • #74,770
  • Mar 19, 2014 1:59pm Mar 19, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting Hickson
"Yellen says almost nothing has changed since December in the overall assessment of the outlook." LOL! The market is not driven by logic, it is driven by emotions like greed and panic.
but she did pinpoint the fact that the previous mandate to use unemployment rate to decide on whether or not interest rates should rise or not is a bad tool to use.

I tend to agree with her. as majority of the population in US do not qualify as Full time employed, majority are working multiple temp jobs and temp jobs are not included into the employed workforce.
im glad the FED finally realize the fact the REAL workforce lies in people who are working in multiple temp jobs that employment do not take into account of them.
Also fed sees first rate hike as early as 2015, previously forecasted around mid 2016
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,771
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:03pm Mar 19, 2014 2:03pm
EUR and AUD are gonna get bitch slapped for a bit.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,772
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:04pm Mar 19, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
It was a really good opportunity to short above 9100. You had a nice pullback in a clear downtrend with the Daily 200 SMA just above. The world has some calamity going on as well. It doesn't really get much better than that.
Nice to see a perma bear buddy, still remember us being short up at 0.96 when AUDUSD was retracing up from 0.90 up to 0.95 and 0.96 the first retrace we had in this big down AUDUSD move? Ahahaha good old times.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,773
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:41pm Mar 19, 2014 2:41pm
Turned out nice for the bears as expected but it seems the 200dma wasn't tested, which is slightly troubling.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,774
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:06pm Mar 19, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} dips? this is a frigging falling knife man, i wont put my hand out trying to catch it... also did you guys read the FOMC? Yellen was way WAY hawkish.... literally abolished the unemployment threshold for interest rate rise, and just use unemployment as the only threshold... thats one less restriction for Dollar Interest Rates to rise.... instead of looking at unemployment & inflation, now its JUST inflation.... Hawk Yellen FTW
Honestly I don't know why everybody thinks Yellen is so hawkish. To me the FOMC statement didn't really introduce anything new. Everybody knew beforehand that they are not going to raise interest until the unemployment rate is below 6.5% and even after that they will look and see to make sure the economy is really on track before they do anything and they also stated that they are not really in a hurry because right now the inflation rate is well below their target of 2%.

"To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. ... The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. "

Based on that, I exited my UJ Long, I guess WAY too early because Yellen probably yapped something more during the press conference to the contrary. If she really didn't say anything extra or unexpected during the press conference then all those FOMC paragraphs quoted should've already been priced in, why the HUGE spikes across the board? If this is how "priced in" PA looks like, from now on, I am going to completely ignore the "priced in" effect and just pretend every single information as as something new and trade accordingly.

Seriously it's ridiculous, last time with the RBNZ rate-raise that's been advertised and announced more than a month ago, and NZ still went up like 50+ pips. And this? Going up/down almost 70 - 80 pips in ONE spike?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #74,775
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:30pm Mar 19, 2014 3:30pm
AUDUSD closing the day about 12 pips above the 100dma it would seem. All is not yet lost for the bulls, maybe the squeezers-in-chief have another squeeze left in them that would actually penetrate the 200dma. Yesterday they came close but were about 7 pips short by the looks of things. Not sure if that counts as a 200dma test. If not then there's probably a proper test coming.
Anyway closed a small short scalp down here, 90%-ish short still running, look to re-short another scalp on any run higher, maybe a double top test, who knows. They seem to be addicted to running this higher after every drop so I guess I'll get another chance to make a few pips.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,776
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:19pm Mar 19, 2014 4:19pm
just closed heavy shorts。aud may retrace to pivots
  • #74,777
  • Mar 19, 2014 4:44pm Mar 19, 2014 4:44pm
soooo where all the bulls go?
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #74,778
  • Mar 19, 2014 5:14pm Mar 19, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting OMGtrader
soooo where all the bulls go?
They are in hibernation until the next countertrend rally (maybe tomorrow) at which point they can remind us all about that inverse HnS that's gonna take AUDUSD to 95 and then 98 and then parity.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,779
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:21pm Mar 19, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} They are in hibernation until the next countertrend rally (maybe tomorrow) at which point they can remind us all about that inverse HnS that's gonna take AUDUSD to 95 and then 98 and then parity.
Let's not forget that the overall trend is very bearish. Bears would like to break 0.900 first and then 8976 which may put an end to the bulls run for further downside with a little help from China. ATM momentum it is pointing up and US jobs data tomorrow are expected ugly....in US someone could wake up tomorrow thinking that today was only a dream. I still think today speech was neutral if not slightly bearish for the ST.
  • #74,780
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:31pm Mar 19, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} They are in hibernation until the next countertrend rally (maybe tomorrow) at which point they can remind us all about that inverse HnS that's gonna take AUDUSD to 95 and then 98 and then parity.
Total Recall. 3 Tits. 4 shoulders.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
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