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A Discussion of GBP with SergiPavl

  • #21
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:07am Jul 13, 2006 8:07am
Quoting smjones
well, so far on one method I have made 39pips and on the other method I have made 111pips from this fake rally... I say trade what you see now..
Agreed, but it's kinda hard changing diapers and watching the market at the same time . Just a few more years, then I'm done with that.
Keeping it Simple
  • #22
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:30am Jul 13, 2006 8:30am
Quoting habeeb
Hi MB,

not so sure about that. I'm yet to see the dollar get weaker when the US is involved in military action. But then again, I haven't been around very long.
Middle eastern violence increases = escalating oil cost

Middle eastern violence increases = escalating gold cost


escalating gold cost + escalating oil cost = weaker dollar

You can blame the large hedge funds like they have been doing in the markets, or you can say it's a natural progression as investors try to protect what they have.

Here's an interesting study that was done in Egypt about currency subsitution during increased violence.
http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/resear...n/econ02-6.pdf
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #23
  • Jul 13, 2006 8:58am Jul 13, 2006 8:58am
The pound thus far has failed to get past 1.8450. The overall dollar outlook will start to improve only when we are below 1.84.
Don't trade opinion
  • #24
  • Jul 13, 2006 9:01am Jul 13, 2006 9:01am
Quoting MuddBuddha
Middle eastern violence increases = escalating oil cost

Middle eastern violence increases = escalating gold cost


escalating gold cost + escalating oil cost = weaker dollar

You can blame the large hedge funds like they have been doing in the markets, or you can say it's a natural progression as investors try to protect what they have.

Here's an interesting study that was done in Egypt about currency subsitution during increased violence.
http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/resear...n/econ02-6.pdf
Thanx for the reply and the link MB.
Keeping it Simple
  • #25
  • Jul 13, 2006 9:18am Jul 13, 2006 9:18am
Could be a false move toward 1.85. A worrying one , nevertheless.

A scenario with the pound closing well below 1.83 is not to be excluded.

Later I'll give u some ideas on whether it is likely or not.
Don't trade opinion
  • #26
  • Jul 13, 2006 9:25am Jul 13, 2006 9:25am
If we go on like this we may well get an engulfing by the end of the day.
Don't trade opinion
  • #27
  • Jul 13, 2006 10:38am Jul 13, 2006 10:38am
Study the chart below:

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/7909/gbp18my.th.gif

Now THAT is exactly what I & some other people a little earlier have been telling about. We 're probably witnessing final parts of a failed sterling rally.

The likelihood is that the dollar may gain the potential necessary for realisation of a massive pound sell out.

In that case(and that case is in no way confirmed now) the only question would be about the timing of the action happenning.

If the case is to be realised then my answer as to the timing would be BOJ rate decision due shortly.

PS. Anyone here with trading experience of at least a year? Let us know about yourself. U'll be a welcome visitor to this thread.
Don't trade opinion
  • #28
  • Jul 13, 2006 12:19pm Jul 13, 2006 12:19pm
I will not be surprised to see the week's GBP close below 1.82. Rather, I'd
be very puzzled if the pound manages to creep through the 1.85 mark.
Don't trade opinion
  • #29
  • Jul 13, 2006 12:54pm Jul 13, 2006 12:54pm
I hope you have been taking advantage of this really nice run... See my attached statement of today's trades...

It is important to trade what you see right now as well as trying to figure out the future...

Thanks scott
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip ScreenHunter_018.zip   16 KB | 415 downloads
  • #30
  • Jul 13, 2006 1:16pm Jul 13, 2006 1:16pm
Nice! bravo Scott!

Quoting smjones
It is important to trade what you see right now as well as trying to figure out the future...
IMHO this is definitely a critical concept.

QG
  • #31
  • Jul 13, 2006 1:24pm Jul 13, 2006 1:24pm
Im a freaking idiot, I saw the move Cable was gonna make way back at 1.8345, but was hesitant to make a trade. As you can see on the hour chart there is a hammer candle at 3AM EST, as well as the CCI system saying to buy on the hourly. I thought it was only gonna make it to 1.8400, but it shot well over 100 pips up. Guess this only goes to show that you cant be hesitant to make trades.
I be pip'n!
  • #32
  • Jul 13, 2006 1:24pm Jul 13, 2006 1:24pm
Quoting smjones
I hope you have been taking advantage of this really nice run... See my attached statement of today's trades...

It is important to trade what you see right now as well as trying to figure out the future...

Thanks scott
This week saw 2 massive down movements by the pound. I took 'em all having doubled my deposit twice. But then I made a couple of unreasonable entries which ruined my deposit dramatically.

Despite the fact that in nearly every case I am able to see where the market is moving there are certain things which I need to work out in order to make my system absolutely profitable.

To talk plain English, today the pound rallied but I failed to predict that in time. When I got back after the market moved on, having taken most of my depo with it, and reviewed the situation I detected the signals that could have warned me about the future.

So my nearest objective is to patch my system for it lacks nothing but a bit of repair and decor.

Did u get the answer? If so, feel free to put your ideas down here for I suspect u're not a newbie and know the business.
Don't trade opinion
  • #33
  • Jul 13, 2006 1:30pm Jul 13, 2006 1:30pm
Yes Sergi, I have been trading for a while. I think there is merit in attempting to forcast the future, not in predicting it. A forecast is more like a range than trying to pin it down. The thing is, if one sees a move developing why not take small bites at it until it stops? That way not much is at risk at anyone time. I have complete respect for your approach. I just noticed that it did not seem like anyone was seeing what was happening at the present moment...

I have enjoyed your thread very much, thank you for starting it...

Scott


Quoting SergiPavl
This week saw 2 massive down movements by the pound. I took 'em all having doubled my deposit twice. But then I made a couple of unreasonable entries which ruined my deposit dramatically.

Despite the fact that in nearly every case I am able to see where the market is moving there are certain things which I need to work out in order to make my system absolutely profitable.

To talk plain English, today the pound rallied but I failed to predict that in time. When I got back after the market moved on, having taken most of my depo with it, and reviewed the situation I detected the signals that could have warned me about the future.

So my nearest objective is to patch my system for it lacks nothing but a bit of repair and decor.

Did u get the answer? If so, feel free to put your ideas down here for I suspect u're not a newbie and know the business.
  • #34
  • Jul 13, 2006 1:41pm Jul 13, 2006 1:41pm
Quoting smjones
... I just noticed that it did not seem like anyone was seeing what was happening at the present moment...
U mean I was wrong at all times today, especially in forcasting a pound downfall and its close below 1.82 in the end of the week?

Well, I'm not yet done...Not till we cross the 1.85.

Did u easily detect today's pound rally?
Don't trade opinion
  • #35
  • Jul 13, 2006 1:44pm Jul 13, 2006 1:44pm
No I do not believe you are wrong. I also think GBPUSD will decline, eventually. I was pointing out that now is the time to trade, not waiting for the future that might happen.

I think you are probably right on the money...

Scott


Quoting SergiPavl
U mean I was wrong at all times today, especially in forcasting a pound downfall and its close below 1.82 in the end of the week?

Well, I'm not yet done...Not till we cross the 1.85.
  • #36
  • Jul 13, 2006 1:49pm Jul 13, 2006 1:49pm
I did not detect the rally I just stayed ahead of it and let it unfold for me...
Of course there are some technical ways of figuring how far it might run, but in this case I just kept taking bites of it as it happened... That works quite well for me.
  • #37
  • Jul 13, 2006 1:56pm Jul 13, 2006 1:56pm
Quoting smjones
No I do not believe you are wrong. I also think GBPUSD will decline, eventually. I was pointing out that now is the time to trade, not waiting for the future that might happen.

I think you are probably right on the money...

Scott
I used to have a similar thread on one of the Russian forex forums(http://forum.fxclub.org/showthread.php?t=31100). That was 2 weeks ago. I was a lot smarter then. Made nearly no mistakes. Predicted several moves of over 100pips each. That's history now.
Don't trade opinion
  • #38
  • Jul 13, 2006 2:04pm Jul 13, 2006 2:04pm
I am sure your forecasts are great. I think this move is about over... Do you see the way it is advancing on very light volume not a good sign for a continuation up... But all I want is another 10pips and another 10 pips ect..

And now price is having trouble breaking through the high it set a little earlier today.. And I will be taking bites out of it on the way down as well.

thanks for the conversation and the thread... Scott

Ps, I am very impressed with your english. I cannot speak two words in Russian..




Quoting SergiPavl
I used to have a similar thread on one of the Russian forex forums(http://forum.fxclub.org/showthread.php?t=31100). That was 2 weeks ago. I was a lot smarter then. Made nearly no mistakes. Predicted several moves of over 100pips each. That's history now.
  • #39
  • Jul 13, 2006 2:36pm Jul 13, 2006 2:36pm
A word of wisdom


If a man is able to exercise utmost control over himself he can exercise control over the market.
Don't trade opinion
  • #40
  • Jul 13, 2006 2:53pm Jul 13, 2006 2:53pm
Nice trades Scott. I've been paying too much attention to loonie in the last 3 days.

Quoting smjones
I hope you have been taking advantage of this really nice run... See my attached statement of today's trades...

It is important to trade what you see right now as well as trying to figure out the future...

Thanks scott
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