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  • #3,701
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:44pm Mar 16, 2014 8:44pm
Olu how do you see this gbpusd?

lots of bets that it will go up
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  • #3,702
  • Edited 7:17am Mar 17, 2014 6:52am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting trexy123
Olu how do you see this gbpusd? lots of bets that it will go up {image}
Hi Trexy.

I am not one of those that think the easiest trajectory is up. I believe this pair is going down but I will only get involved on a break of 1.6570. 3 times this pair came back on my short trades. The weekly chart is showing topping abd bearishness imho
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,703
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:19am Mar 17, 2014 7:19am
Quoting vox dei
AUDCHF: Strong downtrend stalling a bit atm. Possible complex inverted head&shoulders waiting to play out? {image}

Vox

aud is putting in a good performance so far...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,704
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:54am Mar 17, 2014 8:54am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Vox aud is putting in a good performance so far... Olu
Good day Olu,

Yes, definitely. AUD strength came in at impeccable timing from a technical perspective. On higher time frames AUDCHF seems to be pointing higher, EURAUD lower, and AUDUSD seems to want 0.95 area. On lower TFs we see decreasing range structures being printed, preparing the stage for breakout. I remain skeptical of coming AUD strength. Nothing is confirmed yet. My inability to pinpoint fundamentals justifying strength at this time is troubling. Still scared with my recent AUD experiences. Better wait.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,705
  • Edited 1:12pm Mar 17, 2014 1:00pm | Edited 1:12pm
YTD performance vs. USD: has the time come to short NZD/CAD?
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In close tango: with USD/JPY you're indirectly trading the US 10y note.
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Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #3,706
  • Mar 17, 2014 3:12pm Mar 17, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting Jimbaloo
YTD performance vs. USD: has the time come to short NZD/CAD? {image} In close tango: with USD/JPY you're indirectly trading the US 10y note. {image}

Thanks J for the charts. I see from the comparative chart that the nzd has performed the most while the cad as underperformed the most. By the way where did you get the chart - serious planning tool. At some point the strongest will weaken and the weakest will strengthen. It would be the ultimate trade if they happened at the same time. I decided to check out the chart for nzdcad and is still bullish all the way. I have price on the daily quite far from the 200sma meaning I will not be chasing the long side. And perhaps the next big trade is a short (when I cant tell). There is also a feel of parabolic action. So it is definitely on my watch. Negative news concerning nzd (which is stront at the moment) will help my scenario.

Thanks also for the corelation chart between bond yields (rates) and the usdjpy. I know of this correlation but never charted it.

Great charts J. More please

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,707
  • Mar 17, 2014 6:15pm Mar 17, 2014 6:15pm
It's too early to short the Kiwi, I think. The outrageous valuation is likely to last until Fed and perhaps BoE starts signaling rate hikes. USD could then turn to be a more optimal counterpart.

The performance chart is from the Thinkorswim platform and shows CME currency futures on the daily timeframe. Very basic but useful.
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #3,708
  • Mar 17, 2014 6:22pm Mar 17, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting Jimbaloo
It's too early to short the Kiwi, I think. The outrageous valuation is likely to last until Fed and perhaps BoE starts signaling rate hikes. USD could then turn to be a more optimal counterpart. The performance chart is from the Thinkorswim platform and shows CME currency futures on the daily timeframe. Very basic but useful.

Yes I agree with you. Nzd is strong at the moment with recent fundamentals supporting (or propelling) it at the moment. The comparative chart is very good and if monitored can put to good use.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,709
  • Mar 18, 2014 4:59pm Mar 18, 2014 4:59pm
usdcad
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,710
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:20pm Mar 18, 2014 5:20pm
GbpAud

I see weakness on this chart but I dont like 'longing' the aud. The chart says sell what is the trader going to do? I like the nzd more than the aud. GbpNzd is tanking too

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,711
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:26pm Mar 18, 2014 5:26pm
Quoting Olu
usdcad {image}
That is one of the reasons why I like NZDCAD buy over NZDUSD buy (as mentioned in Numbnuts journal). Both NZDUSD and USDCAD looking up = potential for strongest move up in NZDCAD.

Last bar broke support on CAD (the currency):
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"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,712
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:38pm Mar 18, 2014 5:38pm
Quoting Olu
GbpAud I see weakness on this chart but I dont like 'longing' the aud. The chart says sell what is the trader going to do? I like the nzd more than the aud. GbpNzd is tanking too Olu {image}
I share your uncomfortable sentiment regarding buying AUD. AUD has been puzzling me for like 2 weeks now.

AUD (the currency) showing bullish structure, but still no buy confirmed:
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"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,713
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:43pm Mar 18, 2014 5:43pm
Crude Oil

Shorted resistance - let's hope it holds...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,714
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:02pm Mar 18, 2014 6:02pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} I share your uncomfortable sentiment regarding buying AUD. AUD has been puzzling me for like 2 weeks now. AUD (the currency) showing bullish structure, but still no buy confirmed: {image}
Your chart is teasing Vox Dei. It looks like a H&S about to confirm. 'About to' is the operative word here. This whole structure can be messed up tomorrow. Or scuppered by bad China Fundys. What is a trader to do? If we believe it is all in the charts then out mouse cursor must be hovering over the buy button. However experience tells us the aud can weaken in a flash on release of fundy news and jawboning. A trader's dilemma. Great chart Vox Dei. Thanks

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,715
  • Mar 18, 2014 6:17pm Mar 18, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} That is one of the reasons why I like NZDCAD buy over NZDUSD buy (as mentioned in Numbnuts journal). Both NZDUSD and USDCAD looking up = potential for strongest move up in NZDCAD. Last bar broke support on CAD (the currency): {image}
Just has another look at NzdCad. It looks like it is going to the moon. I was posting about this yesterday then BAM! great price action today.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,716
  • Mar 18, 2014 7:11pm Mar 18, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Your chart is teasing Vox Dei. It looks like a H&S about to confirm. 'About to' is the operative word here. This whole structure can be messed up tomorrow. Or scuppered by bad China Fundys. What is a trader to do? If we believe it is all in the charts then out mouse cursor must be hovering over the buy button. However experience tells us the aud can weaken in a flash on release of fundy news and jawboning. A trader's dilemma. Great chart Vox Dei. Thanks Olu
Agreed Olu. This can all change fast. It seems all we have for AUD are bad news (esp. spillover from China). Surely that doesn't make for a compelling buy case. On the other hand, shouldn't we be seeing AUD technical weakness by now given these news?

Quoting Olu
{quote} Just has another look at NzdCad. It looks like it is going to the moon. I was posting about this yesterday then BAM! great price action today.
It will eventually come down. For the time being fundamentals and technicals are both aligned to the upside.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,717
  • Mar 19, 2014 6:45am Mar 19, 2014 6:45am
Quoting Olu
usdcad {image}
Good call Olu.
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  • #3,718
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:43am Mar 19, 2014 10:43am
Quoting srt
{quote} Good call Olu. {image}
Thanks Srt
I had to post that one because of the completed EW signals.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,719
  • Mar 19, 2014 10:45am Mar 19, 2014 10:45am
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil Shorted resistance - let's hope it holds... Olu {image}

Closed my short. Was almost stopped out. Closed when it could not fall through 99.45 area. Will have another look after the Fed speech. I am still bearish till 104 is taken out
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,720
  • Mar 19, 2014 11:53am Mar 19, 2014 11:53am
Sugar
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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