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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #12,161
  • Mar 18, 2014 11:01am Mar 18, 2014 11:01am
Quoting Noob Trader
{quote} Which TF ? On Weekly its already broken i guess.
Weekly. The entire run up from the bottom until now.
  • #12,162
  • Mar 18, 2014 11:05am Mar 18, 2014 11:05am
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} EJ + GJ : Okay good ... I'm back now ... and I just was obsering those two pairs a few minutes before ... until now I was off from forums environments due to some extra time solutions ... It looks as if GJ will see a loosing game soon ... And it is going to see its critical zone violated soon ... me thinks ... uno momento I will try to look for a convenient graphical view ... ;-|

EJ + GJ :


Let's take a look on our two sorrows childs ... Attachment EJ ... Attachment GJ ...

Hourly view ... and afterwards I will post 15 minutes view with same settings ...

Don't get distracted by my limit orders shown there ... no relevance at the moment ... and they can be changed or disabled with ease ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,163
  • Mar 18, 2014 11:45am Mar 18, 2014 11:45am
Quoting mercy seat
EJ + GJ : To be honest ... I don't want to be involved in the battles around these critical zones down there ... Looks not a tempting game to me ... not today ... I'm not in that mood ... not now ... and I don't know why ... ;-|

EJ + GJ :


Okay good ...

15 minutes bars ... with same settings ...

EJ ... Attachment ...

GJ ... Attachment ...

For me it looks as if GJ will see a loosing game soon ...

And it is going to see its critical zone violated soon ... as it seems ...

Please don't get distracted by those worn out orders ... uno momento ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,164
  • Edited 12:17pm Mar 18, 2014 12:06pm | Edited 12:17pm
What do folks think Carney will say today, and the potential impact of his comments on GJ?


Adding -- if anyone is interested, below is a link to Carney's speech and the press conference that will follow
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi.../2014/715.aspx
  • #12,165
  • Mar 18, 2014 2:37pm Mar 18, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} Okay okay ... GBP/JPY : I don't touch it here ... and let the market dance ... not my kind of favourite music ... There will be better opportunities ... ;-| {image}


Okay good ... this way it looks tempting ... Attachment ...

Worth for a try ... ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,166
  • Mar 18, 2014 2:47pm Mar 18, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} Okay good ... this way it looks tempting ... Worth for a try ... ... ;-|

GBP/JPY :


Position squaring procedures ... and adjustments in 168.25 zone ... and a tad below ... Attachment ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,167
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:00pm Mar 18, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} GBP/JPY : Position squaring procedures ... and adjustments in 168.25 zone ... and a tad below ... ;-| {image}


No need to mention it was profitable ... ...

ENTRIES been above 168.45 zone in total sum ... done at 20h19 CET ...

Avg = 168.4527 ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,168
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:19pm Mar 18, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} No need to mention it was profitable ... ... ENTRIES been above 168.45 zone in total sum ... done at 20h19 CET ... Avg = 168.4527 ... ;-|

GBP/JPY :


Bingo Twingo ... a major EXIT POINT for partial profit taking has been hit in 168.15 zone ... re-do activities in consideration ... Attachment ...

This way ... and a few members can see how this double PSAR can be used for ... some got a little bit information ... especially in combination with our beloved moving averages ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,169
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:25pm Mar 18, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} GBP/JPY : Bingo Twingo ... a major EXIT POINT for partial profit taking has been hit in 168.15 zone ... re-do activities in consideration ... This way ... and a few members can see how this double PSAR can be used for ... some got a little bit information ... especially in combination with our beloved moving averages ... ;-| {image}

May try for a bounce again ...

Dragon in 20 min candlesticks ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,170
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:37pm Mar 18, 2014 3:37pm
Be flexible, willing to change your mind quickly and adhere to well formulated positions. After closing a short at 169.22 with a 25 pip loss I saw the dip in N.Y. and went at it again. Resell at 168.95. Got 76 pips on that trade. An interesting disconnection has developed and I'm going to speculate on the reason;

For 2 sessions we have had good strong rallies on the DOW but GJ is no longer correlating to equities with the exception of Tokyo. Risk abounds, that is one. The other is the nationwide Japanese consumption tax. The BOJ states the economy is on track and that they are ready to ease more IF. This is a very far cry from analysts expecting to see more in April. It's now tentative on whether the tax has negative consequences on the progress so far.

I recall a year ago when one BOJ minister said 120 yen to U.S. dollar is not enough. Recently Kuroda said he wasn't concerned about exchange rates just price protection. A very different tone from the BOJ from then and now.

So far after 4 weeks of trading I've more than doubled my account balance and added 146% to the original size of it. By the way, did anyone win FX-Ray's Fear/Greed indicator?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,171
  • Mar 18, 2014 4:11pm Mar 18, 2014 4:11pm
Change of value date may come ... ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,172
  • Mar 18, 2014 4:19pm Mar 18, 2014 4:19pm
What?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,173
  • Mar 18, 2014 4:21pm Mar 18, 2014 4:21pm
Long for Tokyo at 168.24
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,174
  • Mar 18, 2014 4:30pm Mar 18, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting mercy seat
Change of value date may come ... ... ;-|
Ah yes! Ok. I got it now. It's called the winners effect. Winning produces more winning until overconfidence creates extreme risk taking. Then you end up out in the open without protection and the account implodes.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,175
  • Mar 18, 2014 4:39pm Mar 18, 2014 4:39pm
This is what we have had for today ...


;-|

Attachment

Attachment


EJ in a better condition still when comparing with GJ pair ...


2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,176
  • Mar 18, 2014 4:41pm Mar 18, 2014 4:41pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Ah yes! Ok. I got it now. It's called the winners effect. Winning produces more winning until overconfidence creates extreme risk taking. Then you end up out in the open without protection and the account implodes.

Nah ... I mean when Roll is near ... it is good idea to unwind some parts again ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,177
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:35pm Mar 18, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting Noob Trader
{quote} Which TF ? On Weekly its already broken i guess.
More to the point re GJ, I think it's already broken out of some form of rising channel TL - it's just that normally drawn TLs don't show the real picture. Using that reasoning, it fell out when it dropped below 168.3 and it's sitting underneath that TL right now.

In February it got back up very quickly - this time it's in no hurry to do the same.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh4.png Size: 72 KB
  • #12,178
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:40pm Mar 18, 2014 5:40pm
Yeah, seems EJ is always in better stability. The percentages, they start to go against you. What is the probability you can keep winning? It's gets thinner with each winning trade. The best thing is to stop for 2-3 days, allow the chart to change and then get back in.

GBP/CHF, every time I went long I lost. It was amazing, placed the long before the London open. Woke up in N.Y. It had the same draw of minus 5 pips as though it had never moved! I see now. Dec 17 and 18 of last year. 100 pips more to go down which kind of corresponds to near that 1.40 psych level on the euro.

GBP/JPY, either this is the double bottom here at 168.00 and a 2nd touch of the area from 3/14/14 or down to 166.78 and THEN rally.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,179
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:43pm Mar 18, 2014 5:43pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Ah yes! Ok. I got it now. It's called the winners effect. Winning produces more winning until overconfidence creates extreme risk taking. Then you end up out in the open without protection and the account implodes.

Excuse me ... I was distracted by almost one hour phone call ...

###

Yes and no ... somehow yes ... you are right ... it is not good to overtrade ...

And that can happen with ease when we do not stop our positioning from time to time ... take a break and a rest and use that period for re-thinking ...

Maybe same idea is behind that procedure to unwind some larger parts or even everything prior to "rollover" and so-called "End of Value Date" ...

Moreover there is a certain significance of price settlements at closing or "End of Day" ... and we can start with fresh mindset and ideas after a day has been done ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #12,180
  • Mar 18, 2014 5:56pm Mar 18, 2014 5:56pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} More to the point re GJ, I think it's already broken out of some form of rising channel TL - it's just that normally drawn TLs don't show the real picture. Using that reasoning, it fell out when it dropped below 168.3 and it's sitting underneath that TL right now. In February it got back up very quickly - this time it's in no hurry to do the same. {image}
So Yellen tomorrow. Too late. Carney already said the environment is risky. This is going to be very interesting. Not so much as what she says but the interpretation and reaction.
Be humble or be humbled.
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