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AUD/USD

  • #74,681
  • Mar 17, 2014 11:21pm Mar 17, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting bogus
I think AU is setting up for a break higher.
Falling back below .9070 levels, we will be back into bears territory heading down. Lets see if the level holds.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #74,682
  • Mar 17, 2014 11:21pm Mar 17, 2014 11:21pm
its testing the .90710 level for the second time on the 15min chart, if it closes above that level I'm adding to my long.
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
  • #74,683
  • Mar 17, 2014 11:29pm Mar 17, 2014 11:29pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Falling back below .9070 levels, we will be back into bears territory heading down. Lets see if the level holds.
shared the same sentiment
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #74,684
  • Mar 17, 2014 11:31pm Mar 17, 2014 11:31pm
For us deciphering clues in today's RBA minutes, here's a bank report from Commonwealth on it:
Commonwealth – RBA Board Minutes: March 2013

  1. The RBA March Board Minutes reiterated the Bank’s neutral policy bias. The RBA is more comfortable with the growth outlook than it was last year, with indicators, “generally positive for consumption, housing investment, business conditions and exports”.
  2. The RBA’s reading of non-mining capex plans for 2014-15 was a little stronger than the interpretation that most commentators applied.
  3. The RBA’s “period of stability” in policy settings should extend through to late 2014 when we expect a modest tightening cycle to begin.

From Bloomberg: RBA Saw More Signs Low Interest Rates Helping Spur Economy

  • #74,685
  • Mar 17, 2014 11:32pm Mar 17, 2014 11:32pm
Quoting kjmartyn
its testing the .90710 level for the second time on the 15min chart, if it closes above that level I'm adding to my long.
I am still not seeing any strong signals to enter a position on this pair.

M15 current price is still in the cloud, with kijun sitting at the 0.90900 mark so we may get back to that level.
M30 also supports the above scenario
H1 we could be forming a TK cross to the bearish, however above the clouds so will be weak bear, still a way away from forming the cross.
H4 and Daily charts are showing weak signals to a bearish preference.

If I were to enter a trade here it could be a bull at the 0.907xx level as low as I could get it, but I would not hold the trade looking for a small TP maybe at the 0.90857. However as said, signals are not there for me to enter the pair at the moment.

Just my two cents.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,686
  • Mar 17, 2014 11:57pm Mar 17, 2014 11:57pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} To add from yesterday; Westpac changed their forecast of a 25bps rate cut in 2014 to a forecast that the bank wont cut anymore this year.

Wrong , it was double that , 50bps in total .
They previously expected that rates would be reduced by 25bps in both August and November.
  • #74,687
  • Mar 18, 2014 12:20am Mar 18, 2014 12:20am
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} Wrong , it was double that , 50bps in total . They previously expected that rates would be reduced by 25bps in both August and November.
Oh, sorry. Thought it was -25bps in H1 2014. Thanks! Even bigger change in sentiment.
  • #74,688
  • Mar 18, 2014 1:45am Mar 18, 2014 1:45am
Just entered short @ 0.90784 due to some news coming out of china about defaulting loans.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,689
  • Mar 18, 2014 1:52am Mar 18, 2014 1:52am
Quoting whackdiddy
Just entered short @ 0.90784 due to some news coming out of china about defaulting loans.
Closed for quick green..
Have other trades in the system and watching the USD/JPY closely with 3 x longs.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #74,690
  • Mar 18, 2014 2:00am Mar 18, 2014 2:00am
Hi whackdiddy I agreed with yr earlier post re au being inconclusive and range bound..... That said I've entered a small sh at 9075. TP at 9058, the 55 ema on the 1hr. We'll see how it travels.......
We don't see things as they are - we see things as we are.
  • #74,691
  • Mar 18, 2014 2:02am Mar 18, 2014 2:02am
similar to above looking to get short at at 9075 and take profit around 50 based on the hourlies
  • #74,692
  • Mar 18, 2014 2:09am Mar 18, 2014 2:09am
Quoting KiwiOz
RBA minutes watch for possible move down to Daily pivot before continuation up
Daily pivot hit at last & maybe a little more to come. 0.9052 is the 50% retrace level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdm30.png Size: 36 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #74,693
  • Mar 18, 2014 2:17am Mar 18, 2014 2:17am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Daily pivot hit at last & maybe a little more to come. 0.9052 is the 50% retrace level. {image}
.9052 a 50% retracement level? from what?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,694
  • Mar 18, 2014 2:32am Mar 18, 2014 2:32am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} .9052 a 50% retracement level? from what?
From the last move up. OR If you prefer..61.8% from the full move up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdm30.png Size: 37 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #74,695
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:01am Mar 18, 2014 3:01am
au range bound and v frustrating atm.....
We don't see things as they are - we see things as we are.
  • #74,696
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:09am Mar 18, 2014 3:09am
Quoting sonicvista12
au range bound and v frustrating atm.....
Simptomatic of no-trends like AUDUSD is in recent days, weeks is that after breaking no-trend we usually get rather clear trends. Similar with EURJPY, GBPUSD and some others. Stay sidelines – the best one can do right now until new trend emerges. Unless you go for ultrashort trades that is.
  • #74,697
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:13am Mar 18, 2014 3:13am
Quoting Spik
{quote} Simptomatic of no-trends like AUDUSD is in recent days, weeks is that after breaking no-trend we usually get rather clear trends. Similar with EURJPY, GBPUSD and some others. Stay sidelines – the best one can do right now until new trend emerges. Unless you go for ultrashort trades that is.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #74,698
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:26am Mar 18, 2014 3:26am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} From the last move up. OR If you prefer..61.8% from the full move up. {image}
I see it now Kiwi. Thanks very much.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,699
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:38am Mar 18, 2014 3:38am
Just read this on DailyFX...
Quote
Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at 1.9208, which suggests that the AUDUSD could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00146, so the stop loss has been set at 0.90178. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves...
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  • #74,700
  • Mar 18, 2014 3:40am Mar 18, 2014 3:40am
AUD/USD
Australian provocation made ​​up of large quantities of yesterday to 0.9108. So for me it is a signal to short-term reversal to the previous volume of the accumulation zone. I set aside an order to retest the large amounts of 0.9084 with a stop at 0.9110 and 0.9030 profit.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/deas8...212204_900.png
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