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AUD/USD

  • #74,661
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:47pm Mar 17, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting zew
Sell at 0.91 long EURAUD at 1.53
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Members noted of historical high exchange rate. They want to keep the inflation level, even with lower exchange rate. Reading the minutes, i sense they still uncomfortable with the current level of rate and want it lower. But market has its own idea. ^_^
I guess you guys who are shorting are just waiting for the news to come out then enter your position? By the looks of the chart we still look bullish, just minor indecision signals here coming up in the short term.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #74,662
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:48pm Mar 17, 2014 7:48pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Members noted of historical high exchange rate. They want to keep the inflation level, even with lower exchange rate. Reading the minutes, i sense they still uncomfortable with the current level of rate and want it lower. But market has its own idea. ^_^
Aye. Keep inflation rate. Keep low exchange rate. Plenty of upside to calm inflation when there needs to be some tightening. Rates are historical lows anyway.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,663
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:51pm Mar 17, 2014 7:51pm
short? why not? we need to see at least one more leg down min .88 before turn to north :-)
Equities open and promptly sell off
  • #74,664
  • Mar 17, 2014 7:53pm Mar 17, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting slow-trader
Just entered small AUDUSD short with Stop at .9105 ...
This news made no firm stance except eradicating good trades like this. Sidelines is best trade. As fella gatorinla says "Sideline is a position".
  • #74,665
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:04pm Mar 17, 2014 8:04pm
Quoting zew
Sell at 0.91 long EURAUD at 1.53
Good call, it appear that .91 is heavily sold down. Bears are defending this point furiously.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #74,666
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:17pm Mar 17, 2014 8:17pm
The AUD/USD is almighty interesting to watch...

Better buy another pair of Nikes from the states before we hit the 80's
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #74,667
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:26pm Mar 17, 2014 8:26pm
AUDUSD longs gonna get battered IMO, it's just a matter of time.
Tick tock.
Happy to hold my shorts, let 'em have a go at the 200 dma, it's only about 60 pips away now, come on boyz jam it up there, you know you want to, get on with it. Pretty sure they'll find an excuse to do so before the week is done, some words or other missing or not missing from the Fed's statement on Wednesday perhaps.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,668
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:36pm Mar 17, 2014 8:36pm
Price is about 70 pips below 200 SMA on the Daily chart, as of this writing. Price hasn't tested the 200 SMA in about 6 months. I speculate that it isn't going to break through it on first test (if it gets there). As a result, now might be a good and safe time for a short play.
  • #74,669
  • Mar 17, 2014 8:46pm Mar 17, 2014 8:46pm
so the key points that I can find:

  1. Mining investment had declined and was expected to fall further, while non-mining investment remained subdued and was expected to pick up gradually over time. (falling investment indicates lower demand, which means lower export)
  2. There were further signs that low interest rates were providing support to activity, with improved economic conditions evident across a range of household and business indicators. (meaning, in worst case scenario the RBA thinks that lowering rate will help)
  3. The decline in the exchange rate seen to date would assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy. (should it raise further, RBA might intervene)

The above are, of course, my interpretation
CMIIW

  • #74,670
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:00pm Mar 17, 2014 9:00pm
Quoting grandia
so the key points that I can find: Mining investment had declined and was expected to fall further, while non-mining investment remained subdued and was expected to pick up gradually over time. (falling investment indicates lower demand, which means lower export) There were further signs that low interest rates were providing support to activity, with improved economic conditions evident across a range of household and business indicators. (meaning, in worst case scenario the RBA thinks that lowering rate will help) The decline in the exchange rate...

To add from yesterday; Westpac changed their forecast of a 25bps rate cut in 2014 to a forecast that the bank wont cut anymore this year.
  • #74,671
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:37pm Mar 17, 2014 9:37pm
Interesting bear flag on EUR/AUD. Looks quite bearish, for the moment at least, which would be bullish for AUD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 38 KB
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,672
  • Edited 10:02pm Mar 17, 2014 9:43pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} To add from yesterday; Westpac changed their forecast of a 25bps rate cut in 2014 to a forecast that the bank wont cut anymore this year.
Thanks for sharing important reports.

No more rate cut is almost for sure. AU gov is running out of money, they are eager to sell bonds in a stable interest and not crazy high currency rate. Japanese carry trade are still buying AU assets, so AUD can't be pushed down very low as long as CHINA and AU economy haven't dramatically turned bad. RMB rates , the slowing down development in China are uncertain factors and AU itself problems limit the high AUD.

I assume AUDUSD was played in a range 0.84-0.94( most of time in 0.86- 0.92).
  • #74,673
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:45pm Mar 17, 2014 9:45pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
AUDUSD longs gonna get battered IMO, it's just a matter of time. Tick tock. Happy to hold my shorts, let 'em have a go at the 200 dma, it's only about 60 pips away now, come on boyz jam it up there, you know you want to, get on with it. Pretty sure they'll find an excuse to do so before the week is done, some words or other missing or not missing from the Fed's statement on Wednesday perhaps.

Look at 2013, AUD longs already got battered ... about 1800 pips from April - July. We are just in a period of consolidation/retrace.

Who knows where it will go from here, it will probably go to .81 at some point, but who knows when. Be careful of the rest of march april, if anything .. wait for 'sell in may and go away' unless you get a good tech setup.
  • #74,674
  • Mar 17, 2014 9:48pm Mar 17, 2014 9:48pm
I think the AUD/USD didn't have enough strength to push through the resistance. We'll have to wait until it moves significantly more down before it can attempt another breakthrough.
  • #74,675
  • Mar 17, 2014 10:05pm Mar 17, 2014 10:05pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Interesting bear flag on EUR/AUD. Looks quite bearish, for the moment at least, which would be bullish for AUD. {image}
Or bearish EUR
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,676
  • Mar 17, 2014 10:30pm Mar 17, 2014 10:30pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Or bearish EUR
IMO, Eur above 1.39 looks strong to me, unless its taken out and day close below 1.384.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #74,677
  • Mar 17, 2014 10:31pm Mar 17, 2014 10:31pm
I think AU is setting up for a break higher.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #74,678
  • Mar 17, 2014 10:43pm Mar 17, 2014 10:43pm
Quoting bogus
I think AU is setting up for a break higher.
y?
  • #74,679
  • Mar 17, 2014 10:57pm Mar 17, 2014 10:57pm
Interested in thoughts on MACD divergence on both daily and 4h chart. Am inclined to enter short on this, and at resistance at 0.91
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 4hr MACD.png Size: 155 KB
  • #74,680
  • Mar 17, 2014 11:04pm Mar 17, 2014 11:04pm
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} y?
It is at the upper end of a well established band. I'm aware of the down trend line. After the news today it has stayed high. Just my analysis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 180314.jpg Size: 47 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
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