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AUD/USD

  • #74,581
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:22pm Mar 16, 2014 9:22pm
Still waiting audusd to break 0.9103 for today.
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  • #74,582
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:25pm Mar 16, 2014 9:25pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
will consider long if aud makes a clear break above 9040
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #74,583
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:04pm Mar 16, 2014 11:04pm
i am still not a big fan of entering any position. until we get some clear direction... right now its stuck...
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,584
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:14pm Mar 16, 2014 11:14pm
Westpac waving the white flag, causing sharp rally in AUD .

Westpac economists no longer see RBA cutting rates in 2014


From Westpac chief economist Bill Evans:

  1. Westpac has revised its profile for the RBA cash rate in 2014.
  2. Previously expected that rates would be reduced by 25bps in both August and November.
  3. The forecast is now for flat rates throughout 2014.


Evans citing:

  1. Improved employment,
  2. consumption (” we have been impressed with the momentum in household spending”, and “surprising 1.2% print for retail sales growth in January)
  3. Public comments from the RBA that the hurdle for rate cuts is high
  4. offshore development – supply constraints in key commodity markets
  5. Dwelling approvals lifted markedly
  6. Westpac has raised their forecast for headline inflation
  7. Strong growth in housing finance
  8. Expect an improvement in non mining equipment investment

  • #74,585
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:29pm Mar 16, 2014 11:29pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
Westpac waving the white flag, causing sharp rally in AUD . Westpac economists no longer see RBA cutting rates in 2014 From Westpac chief economist Bill Evans: Westpac has revised its profile for the RBA cash rate in 2014. Previously expected that rates would be reduced by 25bps in both August and November. The forecast is now for flat rates throughout 2014. Evans citing: Improved employment, consumption (” we have been impressed...
Sure. They want to sell bonds.

However it doesn't mean AUD can go far north, we will see 0.85-0.80 zone after we see 0.92 -0.93.
  • #74,586
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:33pm Mar 16, 2014 11:33pm
Interesting. Well. This is was published on their weekly report for week starting 17 March 2014
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The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,587
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:51pm Mar 16, 2014 11:51pm
Quoting Neqrotik
Interesting. Well. This is was published on their weekly report for week starting 17 March 2014
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1395030780


Forecasting that far out is pretty much meaningless .
Anyway , I'd imagine those AUD FX targets will be revised upwards on their next weekly report if not before .
  • #74,588
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:56pm Mar 16, 2014 11:56pm
I hear ya. I guess what crosses my mind is.

It isnt only Westpac that has forecasts this low. Last week Goldman said the same thing.

Secondly. That .88 number is only 3 months out. Goldman has a .82 number for 3 mo out.

So this pair is to go all the up and see .92 - .93 and then go all the way down to .82 within the 3 months time frame? Just from an intuitive standpoint thats a lot of gyration when we know the RBA as per their latest minutes which was just 2 weeks ago that they expected their employment numbers to get worse along with mining investment. So I don't know how Westpac just saw within the last 2 weeks that the RBA was obviously not as optimistic about.

Yes. There was the "noise" factor that the RBA attributed to the better than expected inflation number that came out like 3 weeks ago but still. Westpac is making a pretty material change in their forecast that deviates from anything we've seen from either Goldman or the RBA itself. Who knows.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,589
  • Mar 17, 2014 12:07am Mar 17, 2014 12:07am
Firstly , I'd dismiss Goldmans babble .
What is significant is, that of the Big 4 , Westpac have been the most entrenched in the weakening economy / easing cycle to continue and
now they have shifted quite abruptly into a neutral-positive position to be amongst their peers .
  • #74,590
  • Mar 17, 2014 12:11am Mar 17, 2014 12:11am
Quoting Balmain Boy
Firstly , I'd dismiss Goldmans babble . What is significant is, that of the Big 4 , Westpac have been the most entrenched in the weakening economy / easing cycle to continue and now they have shifted quite abruptly into a neutral-positive position to be amongst their peers .
From 1 extreme to the other. Hmm. The market didn't move much when they released the "rate cut" noise. So why should we consider it "significant" now and expect to see it rally when it says they wont cut rates now.

Know what I think? That Westpac was full of shit when they said the RBA would cut rates when in the RBA's most recent minutes SPECIFICALLY said they wont. So why would Westpac be the outlier against the rate-setters themselves and be "bullish" all of a sudden on the prospects of the Australian economy. They are confused over at Westpac
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,591
  • Mar 17, 2014 12:16am Mar 17, 2014 12:16am
I'm going long if it bounces off the .90400 level.
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
  • #74,592
  • Mar 17, 2014 12:19am Mar 17, 2014 12:19am
USD hasn't moved at all. This movement has been all AUD on this Westpac release.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,593
  • Mar 17, 2014 12:35am Mar 17, 2014 12:35am
Quoting Neqrotik
USD hasn't moved at all. This movement has been all AUD on this Westpac release.
Nothing to get too excited about.

We're really just 20 pips from market open at the moment.
  • #74,594
  • Mar 17, 2014 12:39am Mar 17, 2014 12:39am
Quoting JollyBean
{quote} Nothing to get too excited about. We're really just 20 pips from market open at the moment.
True Jolly. Thanks for the perspective.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,595
  • Mar 17, 2014 12:43am Mar 17, 2014 12:43am
went for a run and had my short from 35 stopped out.
  • #74,596
  • Mar 17, 2014 1:10am Mar 17, 2014 1:10am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} True Jolly. Thanks for the perspective.
What ever the perspective the aud is looking a little bouyant across the board . we are 68 pips off the low atm in the aud/usd . I took a few longs due to the reaction of my stochs at the 50 line in in the aud/usd. The good one has been a eur/aud short tho. regards.
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  • #74,597
  • Edited 2:34am Mar 17, 2014 1:21am | Edited 2:34am
OK so here's just my quick thoughts for today, tomorrow, the next few days.

Been long on this pair since .87-.88, will only start taking profit from .92-.97

Right now, we're having a nice daily inside bar setup, and if it plays out, we can expect price to play around this area towards .91+ today.

What could accelerate this rise? Positive news for tomorrow's monetary policy meeting.

If it's really, really positive, no more mention of .85 preference, no more "uncomfortably high" and so on, I could see it jumping to .92 .93. If it's normal positive, "We're OK with these levels", "Price is historically high", it'll probably continue to creep higher (slowly) like it's been doing the past few weeks.

Anything negative could suppress it within .9 - .91, test the lows, or break into .89 back again. But I see this as less likely.

So that's that. Overall I'm expecting to see gains from current level for this week.

Hope everyone enjoys a great trading week.
  • #74,598
  • Mar 17, 2014 1:30am Mar 17, 2014 1:30am
Quoting JollyBean
OK so here's just my quick thoughts for today, tomorrow, the next few days. Been long on this pair since .87-.88, will only start taking profit from .92-.97 Right now, we're having a nice daily inside bar setup, and if it plays out, we can expect price to play around this area towards .91+. What could accelerate this rise? Positive news for tomorrow's monetary policy meeting. If it's really, really positive, I could see it jumping to .92 .93. If it's normal positive, it'll probably continue to creep higher (slowly) like it's been doing the past...
a patient slow burn trade, good discipline. been tough for me to hold the aud at present although this normally is my style. i have reverted to jobbing and scalping as it feels like it is a little directionless at present getting bumped either way of a tight range
  • #74,599
  • Mar 17, 2014 1:52am Mar 17, 2014 1:52am
I do scalp and day trade, but I just don't see short term trading as the best opportunity for the AUD/USD right now.

The reason is simple. If I'd rely on my usual indicators/system (which is my bread and butter) in recent weeks, especially over the last 2 weeks, it would be an obvious SHORT. But nope, that's not the way this pair is behaving right now. In fact you can read some of my earlier posts about how this pair wants to go up no matter what.

Anyway, because of this "unusual" behavior, which I'm seeing it happening for the first time in the last 2-3 years, I switched out to a longer time frame, and it became obvious to me that up's the way to go, in a nutshell. I can see a strong upward move coming very soon. Of course I can't say when exactly, but I've positioned myself for it.

It may play out the way I see it, or not.

Either way, it's always good, if not critical to your longevity as a trader, to always be prepared for the worst case scenario.
  • #74,600
  • Mar 17, 2014 2:10am Mar 17, 2014 2:10am
Quoting JollyBean
I do scalp and day trade, but I just don't see short term trading as the best opportunity for the AUD/USD right now. The reason is simple. If I'd rely on my usual indicators/system (which is my bread and butter) in recent weeks, especially over the last 2 weeks, it would be an obvious SHORT. But nope, that's not the way this pair is behaving right now. In fact you can read some of my earlier posts about how this pair wants to go up no matter what. Anyway, because of this "unusual" behavior, which I'm seeing it happening for the first time in the...
Definitely agree with the longer time frames regardless whether your day trading or holding for longer periods. A little different opinion on the short term trading perspective though. I don't get too attached to any direction or position. I trade currencies , I'm not investing in them. There is enough trillions here for the small guys though so if something is working for you keep on keeping on. I do agree with a strong up move also.
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