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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #6,061
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:16am Mar 11, 2014 2:16am
Hello all!

Just wanted to post this Gold chart I've been looking at since Jan

Tips/hints always welcome!


Happy pip hunting!
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  • #6,062
  • Mar 11, 2014 6:26am Mar 11, 2014 6:26am
EURJPY, USDJPY and GBPUSD
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I know the secret...
  • #6,063
  • Mar 11, 2014 6:42pm Mar 11, 2014 6:42pm
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} I charted the 4h chart for Gold for you. Here is a video and some screenshots. I hope this helps http://youtu.be/vD5CzcxXoAQ {image} {image} {image} {image}
hi eaglestar, i am new here. focused the last month on median lines and tims free webinars. question here is, why did you use the low 19. december instead of the lower low 31. december? because of the better frequency on the MLH? tnx for your vids and explanations!!!!
  • #6,064
  • Mar 11, 2014 9:57pm Mar 11, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting oszillator
{quote} hi eaglestar, i am new here. focused the last month on median lines and tims free webinars. question here is, why did you use the low 19. december instead of the lower low 31. december? because of the better frequency on the MLH? tnx for your vids and explanations!!!!
I am glad you like them. It is my goal to help as many new traders here, as I was once a beginner What pair were you referring to? Thank you.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #6,065
  • Mar 12, 2014 1:24am Mar 12, 2014 1:24am
Quoting JRissa
EURJPY, USDJPY and GBPUSD {image} {image} {image}
Nice work JRissa.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #6,066
  • Edited 2:27am Mar 12, 2014 2:11am | Edited 2:27am
1h Charts
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #6,067
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:15am Mar 12, 2014 2:15am
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} I am glad you like them. It is my goal to help as many new traders here, as I was once a beginner What pair were you referring to? Thank you.
gm eagleastar. referring to post #6045 from 2nd march the gold fork.

did not know that the text in the answer window is not published. have to get aquainted to this technical forum possibilities. tnx.
  • #6,068
  • Mar 12, 2014 1:21pm Mar 12, 2014 1:21pm
just want to share this bigger Picture. blue ist a schiff, black are the warning lines. it worked perfectly with test and retest. unfortunately i did not played it as i was outside. now i am looking for an entry.

any suggestions?
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  • #6,069
  • Mar 14, 2014 2:40am Mar 14, 2014 2:40am
Quoting oszillator
{quote} gm eagleastar. referring to post #6045 from 2nd march the gold fork. did not know that the text in the answer window is not published. have to get aquainted to this technical forum possibilities. tnx.
I used the first low because many times the spike bars do not count as pivots. Imagine them as extreme surges and price going back to balance, or an after shock after an earthquake.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #6,070
  • Mar 14, 2014 2:47am Mar 14, 2014 2:47am
Quoting oszillator
just want to share this bigger Picture. blue ist a schiff, black are the warning lines. it worked perfectly with test and retest. unfortunately i did not played it as i was outside. now i am looking for an entry. any suggestions? {image}
It looks good. You have a few forks at the same time so you may want to clear them up to see the one with the most frequency. When I am drawing a fork, I ask myself does this fork have the most frequency? If not I draw until i find the "one".
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #6,071
  • Mar 14, 2014 1:15pm Mar 14, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} I used the first low because many times the spike bars do not count as pivots.
Although I do like your blue pitchfork, and it happens to channel price well here, in general, I could not disagree more. It is my experience that there is no such thing as "spike bars". Such fast bars are exhaustion bars driven by the biggest market players that move to exact prices that serve to set up the resonance of future lines that use those so-called spikes as true pivots.

The blue fork captured the overall channel quite well, and it was worth drawing and watching for resonance to it.

The black fork here, and it's ModSchiff, was also in play but it a more subtle way, unless you happen to draw half-lines (aka "quartiles") and quarter-lines ("eigthtiles"). (I have my own private tools to draw such things. Some of the tools posted earlier can at least draw half-lines and those are usually the most important, apart from the major PF lines).

See the gray circles for a lot of evidence the black fork is in play, as well as there was great intra-fork resonance (at the two very left-most gray circles) that could have served as a hunt-for-C, to anticipate the formation of the final low point C of the black fork.

There is also great resonance to a sliding parallel with the same slope (see green circles).

The Mod Schiff is included because the very first rise from the bottom obviously bounces off the MS ML. There is some additional minor resonance to it soon after, but not so much after the big climb occurs.


For the vast majority of forks that I find to work, most of them use the extreme pivots. Second-most useful would be to adjust usually the B and/or C and/or possibly the A pivot, to move one or more PF points *outward* to capture the full width of price. Less often do I find it useful to move the C pivot (or maybe B) to the previous minor pivot (and therefore capturing *less* of the width rather than more), such as on this blue fork.
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  • #6,072
  • Mar 15, 2014 4:58am Mar 15, 2014 4:58am
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} It looks good. You have a few forks at the same time so you may want to clear them up to see the one with the most frequency. When I am drawing a fork, I ask myself does this fork have the most frequency? If not I draw until i find the "one". {image}


tnx for your drawing! there is a video of tim and shane named "Analysis Paralysis" which deals with the problem of overanalyzing because it offers too many possibilities. this is a hint ;-)) for me. but at the same time such fractals, which means smaller forks in bigger forks, directs where price may go in the bigger picture. so i am still struggling to made decisions which fork to use. and it all depends also if one will make a longterm or shortterm trade. so as a beginner i am still looking to find my way of trading and therefore appreciate any comments from people who already found their personal way.

please let me stress you with another Analysis in a bigger time Frame.

i like Gold and therefore i follow the AUDUSD as this pair goes parallel with gold. i Interpret the bigger Picture of the AUDUSD as up sloping. argumenting as follows: the fibo from the low in 2001 to the high in 2011. Price tested exactly the 38% fib on the 24th and 27th january 2014 and bounced off. a single test off the 38% is suspect. will a second follow? the 38% line also represents a Long term multipivotline back to 2004.

then there is a big up sloping fork with good frequency with Pivots 2001-04-03 and 2008-07-15 and 2008-10-27, the green one. there is a sliding parallel on the test of the 38% and the Point of ignition on the 2009-03-18 the dashed red line. beneath the red dashed line there is a blue sliding dashed line which is on the original Point of ignition on the 2009-03-10. this blue dashed sl intersects with the 38% line end of August/beginning of September.

to check how a retest of the 38% Looks like i added a modified schiff (red fork) from with to given Pivots 2008-10-28 and 2011-07-27 and set the third where blue dashed and 38% line intersect. and the red modified schiff is still up sloping and gives meaningful frequency too.

there is a third big blue modified schiff 2011-07-27 and 2011-10-04 and 2013-04-11 wich is down sloping and pointing in the direction of 38% line and did a pretty good Job at the intersection with it on the 24th january 2014. its blue dashed sliding parallel Points exactly where the big green line and the 38% meet. and exactly at this Point there is also the MLH of of smaller downsloping schiff which is not shown. when this pivot is used for the red modified schiff it still makes sense to me. this Event would also be a retest of the big green upsloping fork!

Interpretation in Brief: AUDUSD are still in an uptrend, testing the 38% line with a possible retest of it with lower Prices. this could mean a correction in Gold by the end of summer or end of the year as this pair goes parallel with gold. time would depend where Price retests the 38% line. after that a readopt of the upwards movement is possible. my concern is a test of the 50%/61% fib would give a better Basis for the uptrend. hey, what about a deflationary Event in the market, which brings back the USD as save haven when all the Money is flowing back where all the debts belong. in this case Gold could fall with it as it did some times before. this could occur 2016 to 2017 according to the intersection of the forks and the fibs. this Interpretation the may give an advice for an entry for a Long term Position trade ---- if the possibility was not already there at the test of the 38%.

later on i will post some Long term studies of Gold. pips4life has some very interesting lines there and i agree with him. lines are everywhere, which means structure is everywhere, which means there are many possibilities. one just has to find the own way. but i really appreciate different perspectives as it helps me to find mine.

as i am new here this kind of post may be improper here. please tell me if it is so and i will concentrate further on on short term Pictures and stop it immedatly.
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  • #6,073
  • Edited 10:36am Mar 15, 2014 10:14am | Edited 10:36am
Fwiw, exhaustion bars i.e. capitulation are different from spike, pinocchio or as Wyckoff designated them "springs". Quick spikes above/below a prior near top/bottom "false breaks" and then making a sustained move away in the opposite direction are outstanding market tells (this is market manipulation in large order filling using existing breakout orders and their immediate stops to help fill the overriding influx of liquidity) ..... the relationship of where the spring occurs in regards to local price action tells me if the actual spike is to be anchored as a median pivot.

If inside a range, I tend to ignore the spike and use the outside edges of the range to anchor, as the spring was more of a trap.

If close to the end of a range or similar to a 123, I'll use the spike and look at the next fractal off the 1st retracement back into the spike as the probable frequency for the new fork as long as the initial move doesn't make a target... often times you get a hole shot coming off a spring and it never looks back long enough to catch a ride.

regards.
  • #6,074
  • Mar 16, 2014 1:24am Mar 16, 2014 1:24am
I draw what is most clear to me to enter a trade or look for direction. Thanks for your opinion and experience Kent it is appreciated

Quoting pips4life
{quote} Although I do like your blue pitchfork, and it happens to channel price well here, in general, I could not disagree more. It is my experience that there is no such thing as "spike bars". Such fast bars are exhaustion bars driven by the biggest market players that move to exact prices that serve to set up the resonance of future lines that use those so-called spikes as true pivots. The blue fork captured the overall channel quite well, and it was worth drawing and watching for resonance to it. The black fork here, and it's ModSchiff, was...
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #6,075
  • Mar 16, 2014 9:40am Mar 16, 2014 9:40am
Quoting auxesis
Fwiw, exhaustion bars i.e. capitulation are different from spike, pinocchio or as Wyckoff designated them "springs". Quick spikes above/below a prior near top/bottom "false breaks" and then making a sustained move away in the opposite direction are outstanding market tells (this is market manipulation in large order filling using existing breakout orders and their immediate stops to help fill the overriding influx of liquidity) ..... the relationship of where the spring occurs in regards to local price action tells me if the actual spike is to be...
Auxesis, thanks for engaging in discussion. I value your experience and input, and welcome further dialog on the topic. I'm sure I don't understanding everything about "spike" vs. "exhaustion" behavior. I just have an opinion that what a lot of people call "spikes" and therefore they ignore as pivots, in many cases, those spikes do work well as pivots.

Eaglestar's gold chart is good at least for discussion purposes anyway. (I'd much prefer discussing spot Fx charts because that's all I trade, at present). On my demo feed, I can only go back that far with M30 bars. Eagle's blue fork C-pivot is shown, and then the lower black fork C-pivot. Magenta is ModSchiff of black.

The "spike" or "exhaustion" here is a large M30 red bar that fully reverses in 2 more M30 bars. The red bar is on 2013.12.31 08:30 EST (New York). Days on or near holidays are probably lower liquidity and easier for the manipulators to hit targets they want. The market drove down to 1182.46, and it should be noted that the previous major low 6 months earlier was 1180.16, just 2.30 below this low, so this was essentially a double-bottom, with the right bottom slightly higher (wave-2orB ??)

What would you call this move? I can only think of it as a small-time exhaustion. It's not a big long buildup that builds and builds and builds momentum and then freaks out everybody except the deepest pockets. As a ~90 minute move, neither is it an instant "spike" that happens often on M1 candles.

My working hypothesis is... it doesn't matter. All such moves -- even M1 spikes -- can still be counted as pivots. (Consider that a friendly challenge to post examples to prove me wrong; I welcome it. It can only add to my/our understanding).


Quote
If close to the end of a range or similar to a 123, I'll use the spike and look at the next fractal off the 1st retracement back into the spike as the probable frequency for the new fork as long as the initial move doesn't make a target... often times you get a hole shot coming off a spring and it never looks back long enough to catch a ride.

Maybe this example illustrates your points well. Certainly the first fractal after this "spike" becomes important, OR more likely, confirms the importance of the blue fork. However, the upmove from the spike did actually 'make a target' here. It hit the Mod Schiff ML perfectly.

The manipulators took perfect advantage of the Jan 1st holiday and gapped up. The next pullback was to retest the ModSchiff ML that the gap had broken. So... I'd say this very well fits your description of a "hole shot" that "never looks back long enough to catch a ride".
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  • #6,076
  • Edited 10:42am Mar 16, 2014 10:22am | Edited 10:42am
One last (I hope) comment on that past Gold pivot. If one had not got long at either the blue fork retest, or at the Mod Schiff retest, then the next best opportunity to get long occurred at a hunt-for-C example here.

Imagine that the C-pivot is not yet known. Price came down into the area of prior support One draws a pitchfork and looks for good intra-fork resonance, and if such occurs, it may well indicate that a C-pivot is forming.

This red fork here had to have its B-pivot adjusted outward to capture the full width of PA (price action). Where the C-pivot finally did form is a place where there is decent (not great) intra-fork resonance. See the 3 pink circles LEFT of pivot-C. The best of these is the low of the big M30 spike candle. However, if that were the only resonance, then arguably the C-point should/could have moved a little lower. But notice that the other two pink circles (at half-lines, aka "quartiles"), if point-C were lower, then the resonance there would have gotten worse. So, the final point-C is at a kind of balance of intra-fork resonance. A little higher vs a little lower would have made some of the pink circles better, some worse.

I don't know a lot about Sam Seiden's supply/demand zones, but I know that the horizontal blue line is a good place to have anchored the top of a demand zone. The C-pivot is just 0.03 above that.

I drew a basic fib for internal retracements. The C-pivot didn't even reach the 50% line.

It's impossible to look at this now and not be influenced by hindsight. If I traded Gold, which I don't, and if I had done this kind of analysis real-time, I don't know if I would have recognized it as a good long opportunity. The hunt-for-C evidence is good. It was tantalizingly close to the demand zone, but still above it. I may have wanted a full 50% retracement, or even for price to fill the gap. Obviously it did work out well for those who did go long. Gold is now $1381.

(Edit: P.S. I anchored the blue horizontal line at the top of an M30 candle. However if one uses an H1 chart, then the horizontal line would be slightly higher, at the high of the previous M30 candle. Therefore -- if the H1 high is the right anchor for a demand zone -- then the C-pivot did actually enter the demand zone from which it reversed and went up).
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  • #6,077
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:00am Mar 16, 2014 11:00am
Quoting pips4life
{quote} Although I do like your blue pitchfork, and it happens to channel price well here, in general, I could not disagree more. It is my experience that there is no such thing as "spike bars". Such fast bars are exhaustion bars driven by the biggest market players that move to exact prices that serve to set up the resonance of future lines that use those so-called spikes as true pivots. The blue fork captured the overall channel quite well, and it was worth drawing and watching for resonance to it. The black fork here, and it's ModSchiff,...
Tks PipS4LIVE, YOU mention about the hunt for C. Is C green cicle in the chart?
  • #6,078
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:20am Mar 16, 2014 11:20am
Quoting namaus
{quote} Tks PipS4LIVE, YOU mention about the hunt for C. Is C green cicle in the chart?
No, not green circles.

Pitchfork have 3 pivots. By convention, most people call these 3 pivots "A", "B", and "C". (Personally I just call them pt1, pt2, and pt3, but when engaging in public discussion, I sometimes adopt the standard convention).

To "Hunt for C", then, just means you are trying to figure out in advance whether the C-pivot has formed. The C-pivot can form anywhere. I just happen to believe and observe that very often, you can find "intra-fork" resonance that gives evidence that, in fact, a C-pivot is finished. Though risky, I'm willing to trade AT the anticipated C-pivot if the evidence is strong enough. It's not easy. I'm often wrong but usually my risk is low.

After a fork forms, then of course there are also potential entries at where price interacts with the lines, such as a retest of the LML, of if price hits the ML or UML. These are possible reversal points, but be careful because they could instead be where price zooms. The green circles were not even at one of those major lines. I drew those at where price interacted with a sliding parallel, and sliding parallels can be anywhere. They start at some pivot, and have the same slope as the pitchfork, and then... you watch if the line works or not.
  • #6,079
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:30am Mar 16, 2014 11:30am
Quoting oszillator
{quote} ...
Hi oszillator,

Your thoughtful post deserves at least some kind of response. First off, welcome. I apologize I won't be able to go more in depth, but time is short.

I would suggest to be careful about correlating Gold vs AUDUSD or any other two charts. Obviously there is often good correlation that occurs here and there, but too often I have been in a trade of one thing, and saw another chart hit some line and jumped out of my (good) trade too soon, just assuming that things would correlate. It might. Or it might not. It's usually best to just trade the chart your trading. Be aware of overall market trends and changes, but keep focused.

On all charts, there are zillions of possible lines, and possible pivots. It is the hardest thing to know which ones are working exactly when. All I can say is that I look for as much resonance as possible. I also look for precision. I hope for the lines I draw to be respected exactly, and if they aren't, it's a red flag to me. They still might work very well; I'm just more cautious. And I can really only well anticipate short moves, so I must at least take some partial profit after a line works initially. At least buy oneself a free trade. Maybe it's a start of a big move, but maybe it's only a small pullback. Sometimes absolutely great looking setups only produce small pullbacks, and sometimes so-so looking setups provide stunning reversals. Nothing is certain.

By no means have I figured everything out. I sometimes jump from M1 to Daily charts and everything in between. The charts are definitely fractal, so the lines work at all levels. Probably best, though, is to observe the higher timeframes, and then find supporting evidence at smaller ones. They do line up, and if you catch a good hit to a higher timeframe line, most often it will give more pips.

Sorry, but I gotta run...
Good trades to all.
  • #6,080
  • Mar 16, 2014 1:53pm Mar 16, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting pips4life
{quote} Auxesis, thanks for engaging in discussion. I value your experience and input, and welcome further dialog on the topic. I'm sure I don't understanding everything about "spike" vs. "exhaustion" behavior. I just have an opinion that what a lot of people call "spikes" and therefore they ignore as pivots, in many cases, those spikes do work well as pivots. Eaglestar's gold chart is good at least for discussion purposes anyway. (I'd much prefer discussing spot Fx charts because that's all I trade, at present). On my demo feed, I can only go back...
Pips4life,

The following is just my take on things, I'm often times very unconventional in my thinking and analysis - so for anyone following, don't take this as any kind of definitive answer, but find what works for you ........ this is what works for me.

Exhaustion vs. Spikes/Springs/market manipulation.

Imho, exhaustion and exhaustion formations normally take place at the end of a wave, (wave being a series of impulses - higher highs/lows or the opposite in a bear move) where the move feeds on itself, they normally have a parabolic look and feel, are extreme moves blowing thru any lines, support resistance ( which normally just adds fuel the move) and are motivated by extreme panic or greed in the market..... they normally end when there's no one left to exit in the move -- think extreme painful squeeze, often times ending in no mans land - no obvious levels and will retrace just as quick - usually 23-38% as they leave a vacuum in the market. Exhaustion is usually seen as a sell-off in equities and such but can also be seen in runaway buying. Exhaustion is uncontrolled.... the best examples would be the stock market sell-off in 2008 the farther it fell the faster it fell and Gold's parabolic run to $2000.00 in 2011

Spikes and Springs are just the opposite, as I believe they are very controlled and manipulated. When large volume comes into a market it needs to be filled and matched to as much existing orders there is present, it literally eats everything in the area both north and south ... obviously if the incoming orders are buys price would head north but the average fills go up with them ..... if the market is driven to a pools of orders below market ,then those can be used to offset and help the average.... to me this is exactly what is happening in a spike or spring. These are new launching points for the market and imo. mark levels of importance where the big guns are playing, ergo any retrace back into these areas ( as long as the preceding move didn't finish *these are controlled markets so they should follow tested market patterns* - there's a good chance that any remaining orders/others "wanting in" will be pushed back into the market the closer it gets to the entry point to finish the move..... more times than not when price blasts off like this it doesn't give you a good opportunity to enter, if it does it doesn't hang long before continuing.

I like your post to Oszillator concerning time frames, the lower times frames are controlled by the higher, draw backs a large time frame candle hides much info inside the wick .. I often like to use lower time frames but zoomed way out....

Your comments on the gold chart are spot on, I think we are having more of a nomenclature problem. the spike was to me obvious stop/order sweeping looking to fuel the move north.

let me finish up in a following post and try to put this into some type of cognitive thought
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