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  • #3,681
  • Mar 13, 2014 4:14pm Mar 13, 2014 4:14pm
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil is still behaving itself moving as expected {image}

My campaign in crude oil has ended today. Crude Oil was a gentleman

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,682
  • Mar 13, 2014 4:28pm Mar 13, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting Olu
GbpNzd {image}
Trade closed. Price put in a double bottom on the 4h. So there might be more upside to play out

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,683
  • Mar 14, 2014 8:13am Mar 14, 2014 8:13am
Sugar
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,684
  • Mar 14, 2014 10:27am Mar 14, 2014 10:27am
Quoting Olu
{quote} My campaign in crude oil has ended today. Crude Oil was a gentleman Olu
Quoting Olu
{quote} Trade closed. Price put in a double bottom on the 4h. So there might be more upside to play out Olu
5 star technical analysis/trades Olu
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,685
  • Mar 14, 2014 2:23pm Mar 14, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} {quote} 5 star technical analysis/trades Olu

Thanks Vox Dei. Have a great weekend. And we come back Sunday night to try and do it all over again

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,686
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:01pm Mar 14, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Thanks Vox Dei. Have a great weekend. And we come back Sunday night to try and do it all over again Olu
Thanks Olu. Hope you enjoy your weekend too.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,687
  • Mar 15, 2014 8:06am Mar 15, 2014 8:06am
Shorting China thru the Taiwanese dollar might be easier than with copper, AUD, steel or mining companies etc. Using 2013 data, about 27% of Taiwan's exports leaves for China.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USD/TWD weekly
Following the recent rally it became very overbought and had to consolidate for a while. I think a break-out from the ascending triangle is most likely but it's best to wait. Timing break-out's is a mug's game.

The holding period for this one could be several months. I suspect that debt constraints in China have been reached. As a result the investment boom is about to hit a brick wall which is reflected in PMI's, trade data and OECD CLI's.

It has to be said, China's economy is so incredibly opaque that you cannot really be certain about anything.
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #3,688
  • Mar 15, 2014 9:03am Mar 15, 2014 9:03am
Quoting Jimbaloo
Shorting China thru the Taiwanese dollar might be easier than with copper, AUD, steel or mining companies etc. Using 2013 data, about 27% of Taiwan's exports leaves for China. {image} USD/TWD weekly Following the recent rally it became very overbought and had to consolidate for a while. I think a break-out from the ascending triangle is most likely but it's best to wait. Timing break-out's is a mug's game. The holding period for this one could be several months. I suspect that debt constraints in China have been reached. As a result the investment...

I hear you J. Thanks for your chart. I like the fact that its the bottom line that is ascending and the top one flat. Pressure is building to breakout to the upside. I am not sure whether this pair is on my platform but you bet I will be checking it out.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,689
  • Mar 15, 2014 9:05am Mar 15, 2014 9:05am
Sugar
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,690
  • Mar 15, 2014 9:24am Mar 15, 2014 9:24am
Cocoa
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,691
  • Mar 15, 2014 9:32am Mar 15, 2014 9:32am
AUDCHF: Strong downtrend stalling a bit atm. Possible complex inverted head&shoulders waiting to play out?
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"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,692
  • Mar 15, 2014 9:49am Mar 15, 2014 9:49am
Crude Oil - long term
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Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,693
  • Mar 15, 2014 9:59am Mar 15, 2014 9:59am
Quoting vox dei
AUDCHF: Strong downtrend stalling a bit atm. Possible complex inverted head&shoulders waiting to play out? {image}

I saw the pattern too Vox Dei. I was also going to put up a chart of audnzd - possible double bottom. However with all this China issue as Trexy123 rightly pointed out the bottom might fall out. Excellent chart. Vox Dei. Next week will be interesting. We have the Crimea vote this weekend. This definitely will affect risk perception this coming week

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,694
  • Mar 15, 2014 10:19am Mar 15, 2014 10:19am
Quoting Olu
{quote} I hear you J. Thanks for your chart. I like the fact that its the bottom line that is ascending and the top one flat. Pressure is building to breakout to the upside. I am not sure whether this pair is on my platform but you bet I will be checking it out.
Agreed.

Oanda is one of the few bucket shops that offers access to the pair. The break-out is most likely to occur during Asian hours.

With the unfolding debacle in China, I think it's to smart to stick with gov't fixed income and low yielding currencies. The euro is a net creditor currency yielding less than the US dollar and sterling. One could argue that it is about to replace the yen in the rank of safe haven currencies. I suspect the recent resilience is at least partially because of this.
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #3,695
  • Mar 15, 2014 10:21am Mar 15, 2014 10:21am
Dollar Index
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,696
  • Mar 15, 2014 10:30am Mar 15, 2014 10:30am
Quoting Jimbaloo
{quote} Agreed. Oanda is one of the few bucket shops that offers access to the pair. The break-out is most likely to occur during Asian hours. With the unfolding debacle in China, I think it's to smart to stick with gov't fixed income and low yielding currencies. The euro is a net creditor currency yielding less than the US dollar and sterling. One could argue that it is about to replace the yen in the rank of safe haven currencies. I suspect the recent resilience is at least partially because of this.
The Euro is another story. I cant believe price is smelling 1.4000 area. With all the crisis and the monetary issues. I thought we would be at 1.2000. We have to give it the the Draghi and the ECB for excellent management of the euro during the crisis and afterwards. I dont think our BOE would have done as well. Strength in the euro is killing exports and is deflationary which is not a good thing though.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,697
  • Mar 15, 2014 10:39am Mar 15, 2014 10:39am
Quoting Olu
{quote} I saw the pattern too Vox Dei. I was also going to put up a chart of audnzd - possible double bottom. However with all this China issue as Trexy123 rightly pointed out the bottom might fall out. Excellent chart. Vox Dei. Next week will be interesting. We have the Crimea vote this weekend. This definitely will affect risk perception this coming week Olu
Agreed. There are lots of bottoming patterns showing up on AUD charts, but they lack fundamental support for the time being.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,698
  • Mar 15, 2014 11:04am Mar 15, 2014 11:04am
Quoting Olu
{quote} The Euro is another story. I cant believe price is smelling 1.4000 area. With all the crisis and the monetary issues. I thought we would be at 1.2000. We have to give it the the Draghi and the ECB for excellent management of the euro during the crisis and afterwards. I dont think our BOE would have done as well. Strength in the euro is killing exports and is deflationary which is not a good thing though. Olu
Euro wants to go there but it seems too high to buy for any longer than on a short-term basis. I think as long as Euro continues to be widely perceived as Germany's currency (and periphery maladies implicitly seen as something 'containable') by the heavy weights, it will continue showing resilience and being supported around 1.3000 area.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,699
  • Mar 15, 2014 11:25am Mar 15, 2014 11:25am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Euro wants to go there but it seems too high to buy for any longer than on a short-term basis. I think as long as Euro continues to be widely perceived as Germany's currency (and periphery maladies implicitly seen as something 'containable') by the heavy weights, it will continue showing resilience and being supported around 1.3000 area.

You are correct Vox Dei. The euro will sell off if we see weakness in Germany's ecomony. Man so many farctors to consider.... However 1.3000 from here is a good trade

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,700
  • Mar 15, 2014 12:51pm Mar 15, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting Jimbaloo
Shorting China thru the Taiwanese dollar might be easier than with copper, AUD, steel or mining companies etc. Using 2013 data, about 27% of Taiwan's exports leaves for China. {image} USD/TWD weekly Following the recent rally it became very overbought and had to consolidate for a while. I think a break-out from the ascending triangle is most likely but it's best to wait. Timing break-out's is a mug's game. The holding period for this one could be several months. I suspect that debt constraints in China have been reached. As a result...
I think the recent strength in gold is partially a result of more traders questioning China's potential credit bubble. If it's as bad as some are saying, gold's recent rally will be just the beginning if the bubble should burst. It's hard to know which data points to believe but if you take hints from the markets (gold, copper) this may be the beginning of bigger problems. Time will tell.
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