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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #130,201
  • Mar 13, 2014 4:43am Mar 13, 2014 4:43am
A nice PinBar in a down trending market. Only note of caution was 10.8 level but I felt with the long tail that price would easily break through it. Currently targeting FTA1 level before moving stop to b/e. Any comments or suggestions on the trade?
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  • #130,202
  • Mar 13, 2014 4:52am Mar 13, 2014 4:52am
Quoting patapouer
{quote} Hi B, I was about to write a very nice after-the-fact analysis, mentioning one of Jarroo's trade management (move SL below the bar that broke), but then… you know… critics based on hindsight are far from constructive Then, I have had something else in mind for quite few months now. It all started when I was gaining interest in 60minuteman's "H4 power" strategy. I really made me thinking hard, as his strategy uses support and resistance as well, but in a slightly different...
I've read through most of your links ( thanks again )- I think that the millipede and H4 posts will take a bit longer - one for the weekend

In this trade at the moment GBPUSD -

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Set my order last night at close of NY and woke up to find myself 50pips in the black. So I've moved to BE.

So, what to do now... Do I sit at BE and see what happens? Do I move my stop in tight behind so I don't have to suffer any drawdown? Do I move my stop to 61.8%? ( I have used this in the past, and I noticed it mentioned in some of the posts you linked to )

One thing I did get from your links was the consistency - of picking a method and working with it - otherwise it's impossible to analyse true results of any method.

Gah. I'll just sit on BE and trail next day low. Is it Jaroo and Mike who follow this method? Good company if that's the case.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,203
  • Edited 6:59am Mar 13, 2014 6:14am | Edited 6:59am
Quoting Berserker
{quote} I've read through most of your links ( thanks again )- I think that the millipede and H4 posts will take a bit longer - one for the weekend In this trade at the moment GBPUSD - {image} Set my order last night at close of NY and woke up to find myself 50pips in the black. So I've moved to BE. So, what to do now... Do I sit at BE and see what happens? Do I move my stop in tight behind so I don't have to suffer any drawdown? Do I move my stop to 61.8%? ( I have used this in the past, and I noticed it mentioned in some of the posts you linked...
There is a post by Bemac in the millipede thread that sums it all up. A bit... harsh? but, to me at least, a good post that really condensate all (well, most) of the thread's information in a few sentences. Basic truths, but always worth keeping in mind - to me at least...

Regarding your trade. One of the conclusions I came to is the following. I cannot predict where price will go. James16 method gives me an edge. By using it, I know that there is a high probability that the price will reach the FTA. And then? don't know...
I've tried scaling out at various trouble areas along the way, but that's far from optimal.
What J16 is about, as far as I understand it, is giving me the possibility to weight the probability of price to bounce from certain areas.

Here, price is ranging. There is nothing wrong with the hypothesis of price turning by 1.68 and shorting back into the box. On the other hand, there is also a probability for the price to break through this resistance, and continue moving up.

A win-win scenario would be TP at 1.68, then if price breaks it wait for a bullish PA at this area, or if price cannot breach this resistance, wait of a bearish PA and short it.

No trading advice here! just some of my conclusions on the matter...
Take care
Edit: one of Mike's advice is to keep track of your trades with different exit strategies. A few months later you will have some data to work on and to see which would have been the most profitable one.
Slow & steady
  • #130,204
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:10am Mar 13, 2014 7:10am
Quoting patapouer
{quote} There is a post by Bemac in the millipede thread that sums it all up. A bit... harsh? but, to me at least, a good post that really condensate all (well, most) of the thread's information in a few sentences. Basic truths, but always worth keeping in mind - to me at least... Regarding your trade. One of the conclusions I came to is the following. I cannot predict where price will go. James16 method gives me an edge. By using it, I know that there is a high probability that the price will reach the FTA. And then? don't know... I've tried scaling...
Thanks, I'll hunt out that post.

GBPUSD - Now I'm up 70 pips. What I have done in the past is go to a lower time frame, usually 4H and look at S/R levels there. I can see one now at 1.67. So, do I move in 10/20 pips behind there and lock in some profit? Do I stay at BE and trade purely off the daily? Or, partials, of course?

That's the beauty of all this - no right or wrong way of doing it! As Bill Hicks says, - "It's just a ride..."
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,205
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:21am Mar 13, 2014 7:21am
Quoting patapouer
{quote} There is a post by Bemac in the millipede thread that sums it all up. A bit... harsh? but, to me at least, a good post that really condensate all (well, most) of the thread's information in a few sentences. Basic truths, but always worth keeping in mind - to me at least... Regarding your trade. One of the conclusions I came to is the following. I cannot predict where price will go. James16 method gives me an edge. By using it, I know that there is a high probability that the price will reach the FTA. And then? don't know... I've tried scaling...
Just to add to what you said, Patapouer. I think that if I reach 1.68, I would see that as a pretty good target. I would be happy to move my stop pretty tight behind, and let it either take me out for a good ~150pips profit ( and then, as you say, look for a bearish signal ), or let it ride if momentum was still good.

Have to get there first of course - I've identified 1.67 as FTA in this trade, which is where I am now.

Cheers for all the time you've taken to help me with my exits problem!
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,206
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:09am Mar 13, 2014 8:09am
Space is a vaccuum, nature abhors it
This PB broke hard and fast last night (60 Pips in a minute)
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Price is beautiful. A repetitive method is a competitive method.
  • #130,207
  • Mar 13, 2014 10:03am Mar 13, 2014 10:03am
Quoting makwana
A nice PinBar in a down trending market. Only note of caution was 10.8 level but I felt with the long tail that price would easily break through it. Currently targeting FTA1 level before moving stop to b/e. Any comments or suggestions on the trade? {image}
Update
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  • #130,208
  • Mar 13, 2014 10:50am Mar 13, 2014 10:50am
@Berserker - yes I am in this trade. right now I moved to BE. I think today D1 close will tell us more about how to manage this trade.

Thx,
HG
  • #130,209
  • Mar 13, 2014 12:02pm Mar 13, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting hginvestor
@Berserker - yes I am in this trade. right now I moved to BE. I think today D1 close will tell us more about how to manage this trade. Thx, HG
Was just replying to you, talking about how much it had plummeted in last hour, and how I'd be lucky to get home without stop being hit and, boom! BE hit, SL hit.

Whallop - that's about 70pips I've left on the table today!
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,210
  • Mar 14, 2014 8:05am Mar 14, 2014 8:05am
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what do you guys think?

Best,
Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #130,211
  • Mar 14, 2014 8:17am Mar 14, 2014 8:17am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{image} what do you guys think? Best, Jonas
Could it be that the pin/wick cleared the demand and setting the stage for a push lower?
  • #130,212
  • Mar 14, 2014 8:35am Mar 14, 2014 8:35am
Quoting Donkey
{quote} Could it be that the pin/wick cleared the demand and setting the stage for a push lower?
Well could be, yes. But I don't see any place left to the downside. This pair definitely needs a correction. 2000 Pip drop without any certain correction....
I entered long few minutes ago. Stop below historic low. Giving it a 600 pip target. Will let this one run.
Weekly close above 1.053x would be a start. Push above 1.0590 and this pair is good for more.

Other AUDxxx pairs consolidating or rising, NZDUSD at daily supply. Might affect AUDNZD upwards.

For me, bullish action would be nice . For those interested, i bought 10.000...So my risk is around 200€ and possible profit around 400-420€. I'm not a big unit trader...as is well known.

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And now, as always, time will tell.

Have a nice weekend,
best Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #130,213
  • Mar 14, 2014 9:50am Mar 14, 2014 9:50am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} Well could be, yes. But I don't see any place left to the downside. This pair definitely needs a correction. 2000 Pip drop without any certain correction.... I entered long few minutes ago. Stop below historic low. Giving it a 600 pip target. Will let this one run. Weekly close above 1.053x would be a start. Push above 1.0590 and this pair is good for more. Other AUDxxx pairs consolidating or rising, NZDUSD at daily supply. Might affect AUDNZD upwards. For me, bullish action would be nice . For those interested, i bought 10.000...So my...
Very nice analysis. I really love that second chart (daily). That is about as good of an example support turning to resistance and testing as you will ever see. I certainly hope we get the correction you're speaking of to your target......will be a great spot to look for shorts after the sharp drop....please keep us posted on trade management for this one!
  • #130,214
  • Mar 14, 2014 11:19am Mar 14, 2014 11:19am
Take care Edit: one of Mike's advice is to keep track of your trades with different exit strategies. A few months later you will have some data to work on and to see which would have been the most profitable one.[/quote]


A few months is not enough, unfortunately. Even a few years of data might not give the full picture.
  • #130,215
  • Mar 15, 2014 4:24am Mar 15, 2014 4:24am
Quoting Donkey
{quote} Very nice analysis. I really love that second chart (daily). That is about as good of an example support turning to resistance and testing as you will ever see. I certainly hope we get the correction you're speaking of to your target......will be a great spot to look for shorts after the sharp drop....please keep us posted on trade management for this one!

what a finish yesterday. Daily shows up for me.

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best,
Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #130,216
  • Mar 15, 2014 7:17am Mar 15, 2014 7:17am
Hi all,

just a quick question. Is the james16 group/pf still active? I tried emailing a while ago but still no reply. I am interested in enrolling but it seems the founders are understandably not as keen as they used to. Keep up the good work here! Its great!
  • #130,217
  • Mar 15, 2014 7:20am Mar 15, 2014 7:20am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} what a finish yesterday. Daily shows up for me. {image} {image} best, Jonas
expect higher levels

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #130,218
  • Mar 15, 2014 8:47pm Mar 15, 2014 8:47pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} what a finish yesterday. Daily shows up for me. best, Jonas
aud/nzd: my chart shows a DBLHC at 1.0536 for Wednesday and Thursday, with higher closes on both Thursday and Friday. Moreover, unlike your chart, the Friday low at 1.0543 did not fall below either Wednesday or Thursday's low. I had not noticed the DBLHC until you drew my attention to the pair. Very interesting.

Thanks for posting.

BTW: what is the most typical entry point for a DBLHC? Is it ten pips above the high of the second bar -- or the high of both bars -- or something else?
Forex is for the lifestyle.
  • #130,219
  • Mar 16, 2014 3:43pm Mar 16, 2014 3:43pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} .... I entered long few minutes ago. Stop below historic low. Giving it a 600 pip target. Will let this one run.
hi Jonas,
first of, I really appreciate your work and your e-book has been an eye opener for me... thanks a lot.

now, based on your entry of this pair, did you see a signal in the lower TF to go long, or you entered b'cos price was at a historical demand area?
if it is the later, don't you consider it very aggressive?

also, you placed your stops at the lowest point, what is your %-age success with this... b'cos there is a chance price will test that level and wipe your stops. maybe not for this pair, but with others.

Good analysis by the way

thanks for answering,
Dinta
  • #130,220
  • Mar 17, 2014 2:02am Mar 17, 2014 2:02am
Quoting Dinta
{quote} hi Jonas, first of, I really appreciate your work and your e-book has been an eye opener for me... thanks a lot. now, based on your entry of this pair, did you see a signal in the lower TF to go long, or you entered b'cos price was at a historical demand area? if it is the later, don't you consider it very aggressive? also, you placed your stops at the lowest point, what is your %-age success with this... b'cos there is a chance price will test that level and wipe your stops. maybe not for this pair, but with others. Good analysis by the...

Thank you for your post. Yes, it is possible that we test lows here, of course. Problem is that I dont want to miss a cheap price. On the m15 we do have a range right now, i entered in the middle of it (see red line, that was my inital entry + 12 pips spread). Since there was no lower low than the one after the huge drop on the chart, i see this pair going at least to 1.064x , which will be a tough supply.

Dont mind asking if s.th stays uncleared

Best,
Jonas

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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