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ReadtheMarket - Supply and Demand with Price Action

  • #481
  • Mar 12, 2014 11:43am Mar 12, 2014 11:43am
Hello. today I took sell trade there. Reasons it was weakening at that SR flip level. But It went wrong. So, can anyone please tell me what was my mistake to enter trade ?
Thanks.
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-milkeyway
  • #482
  • Mar 12, 2014 12:40pm Mar 12, 2014 12:40pm
Hi, K, i cannot edit pictures in office, so please try to understand my texts

1st. this is NOT 'first time back' FTB, the level you entered, has been tested visited once. your entry is 2nd time the level is visited. therefore, the supply there are very likely consumed up when you enter.

2nd. the level, when it is initiated (left to the FTB), didn't demonstrate a strong move (with a big candle, or fast bearish move), therefore, your 'SR flip' is not a significant one. in other words, there might not be much more sell orders than buy orders.

3rd. very likely you did everything right, but still failed. it is a game of chance.

just 2 cents, and not necessarily fitting the theories discussed in this thread though.

Quoting kumaramy
Hello. today I took sell trade there. Reasons it was weakening at that SR flip level. But It went wrong. So, can anyone please tell me what was my mistake to enter trade ? Thanks. {image}
  • #483
  • Mar 12, 2014 12:42pm Mar 12, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting charvo
Hi, K, i cannot edit pictures in office, so please try to understand my texts 1st. this is NOT 'first time back' FTB, the level you entered, has been tested visited once. your entry is 2nd time the level is visited. therefore, the supply there are very likely consumed up when you enter. 2nd. the level, when it is initiated (left to the FTB), didn't demonstrate a strong move (with a big candle, or fast bearish move), therefore, your 'SR flip' is not a significant one. in other words, there might not be much more sell orders than buy orders. 3rd....
Okay got it. Thanks.
-milkeyway
  • #484
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:15am Mar 13, 2014 3:15am
No one knows future but I tell you why is it my entry and target. Experts please comment. Thanks.
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-milkeyway
  • #485
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:30pm Mar 13, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting Ifmyante
Hi LD Here it is {image}
Hi Ifmyante

Excuse me, I don't understand your chart. Could you explain what do you see so much relevant in that engulf + ugly pullback to justify that kind of reversal? Was there another reason to take that trade in that point? Why did you choose that particular exact price level?
  • #486
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:33pm Mar 13, 2014 3:33pm
Hi Ainur

Check out the Flag Limit Article and you'll know it all
  • #487
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:35pm Mar 13, 2014 3:35pm
Here are my today's FL trades taken on Oz and Kiwi

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  • #488
  • Mar 14, 2014 5:08am Mar 14, 2014 5:08am
Hi If, i was looking where you enter on kiwi, and it sims that you entered on tuch of history supply and not FL.
  • #489
  • Mar 14, 2014 5:36am Mar 14, 2014 5:36am
Quoting Ifmyante
Hi Ainur Check out the Flag Limit Article and you'll know it all
Hi Ifmyante

Not all flag limit are able to do that king of price reversal, many do a decent rejection and some do a little 5-10 or less pip rejection (consumption) before get blown up even at first visit. Seems that 0.9130 did have some history in the past as a minor level, but didn't get respected many times recently. I wanted to ask you what did you see in the overall picture that gave you the confidence of trading that particular choppy flag limit at that particular price level. It should be some more reasons for that trade i guess, not every sr flip does a 100+ pip move.


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  • #490
  • Mar 14, 2014 5:37am Mar 14, 2014 5:37am
Quoting shum
Hi If, i was looking where you enter on kiwi, and it sims that you entered on tuch of history supply and not FL.
You need to look a little deeper
  • #491
  • Mar 14, 2014 5:42am Mar 14, 2014 5:42am
Quoting Ainur
{quote} Hi Ifmyante Not all flag limit are able to do that king of price reversal, many do a decent rejection and some do a little 5-10 or less pip rejection (consumption) before get blown up even at first visit. Seems that 0.9130 did have some history in the past as a minor level, but didn't get respected many times recently. I wanted to ask you what did you see in the overall picture that gave you the confidence of trading that particular choppy flag limit at that particular price level. It should be some more reasons for that trade i guess, not...

You're absolutely right!

All we can ever hope for is a bounce at these levels, unless we are certain that this level is the deepest possible point of retrace after a previous engulf.

Without that, we must watch PA as it develops, both before and during the trade. Set and Forget trades can only be taken once the signal is given and the target is clear
  • #492
  • Mar 14, 2014 5:44am Mar 14, 2014 5:44am
Quoting shum
Hi If, i was looking where you enter on kiwi, and it sims that you entered on tuch of history supply and not FL.
same doubt as shum

Which FL are you referring to?

First area we encounter in the past is this

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but back on the daily/H4 there is another of great interest (but not fresh anymore)

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  • #493
  • Mar 14, 2014 5:56am Mar 14, 2014 5:56am
Once again, very simple stuff

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and on the HTF, those Supplies just under that level were itching to be broken to it
  • #494
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:16am Mar 14, 2014 6:16am
Quoting Ifmyante
..simple stuff..
I wish I could say the same


Is hiding something mysterious behind your trades
  • #495
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:29am Mar 14, 2014 6:29am
I get what you mean!

It takes a massive mental leap to allow yourself to see how ridiculously simply the market is programmed
  • #496
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:58am Mar 14, 2014 6:58am
I was thinking to, about QM level,but dont see it, now its clear, thankyou IF.
  • #497
  • Mar 14, 2014 7:10am Mar 14, 2014 7:10am
Quoting Venice
Another observation that I can couple with my previous trading knowledge. Most of you should have noticed by now whom have played in the S/D world is the stair stepping behavior of price. That is to say, those constant higher lows that present themselves. All the price consolidation and fake outs to finally get back to the bottom for a retest. It looks like flag limits are a nice way to see the start of the stair stepping effect and where price finds its initial base or the first 'step'. {image}
Another stair step formed. I didn't pull the trigger because and I was also napping . See how ridiculous and manipulative price can be? And how reliable S/D can potentially be though?

Also, nice little flag'ish pattern that indicated a reversal at the top on the 1h.

Bounce at previous demand, price engulf that bounce. Sell newly created supply. Red arrow is pointing towards demand bounce and engulfing of that bounce. After the engulf, price came right back to the highs of the engulf. This is where you sell.

Guess what created the bounce back to the engulf highs? Yep... another demand zone. Follow the ping pong.
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  • #498
  • Mar 14, 2014 9:48am Mar 14, 2014 9:48am
Hi, IF, would you please share your thoughts on my confusion in this post? Many thanks. You might simply click "Quoting charvo (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7335368#post7335368)" to see the full text.

Quoting charvo
Hi, IF, Would you please explain a little further about "Supply and Demand are far too unreliable like fibs..."? I am actively reading/searching your posts/threads both here FF and RTM. I have seen that since the end of last year, you've mentioned a couple of times that S/D is not reliable. This seems a little against your earlier insights (1~2 years ago). The reason I got confused is that I do feel: 1. S/D is not as reliable as many example charts/trades show, since I manually simulate in forextester hundreds of hours...... 2. but S/D seems still...
  • #499
  • Mar 14, 2014 10:14am Mar 14, 2014 10:14am
It's play time at the moment, so I'm off for now.Before I go - another add on AU - unfortunately I'll need to keep an eye on it for another while
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  • #500
  • Mar 14, 2014 10:26am Mar 14, 2014 10:26am
Figure out my entry however with a view to FLs, and you'll know why I waited for the supplies below to break
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