AUD/USD

nikkei is getting roasted down 3.5%.

yep, just entered a long on the usd/jpy for retrace... (longer term entry).

brave man. i am steering clear of that one for now although down around that 200 day MAV at 100.30 it does looks pretty tempting.

whenever things flare up the yen volatility just goes nuts. i have had my arse handed to me on that trade a few times.

Same, going outside my usual focus on audusd cost me 9k last time. This time using a small lot so we will see.

im actually short on the USDJPY for now.

Based on your H4 Tyrant?

I am thinking long term, as in months - am still expecting extreme bad news from USD longer term as in recovery is not going to plan and panic..

Only 1.0 lot, if it gets above on a retrace I will close and then reduce to 0.50 lots at a lower level for maybe Q4 close.

if i look at the chart and the current macro i would agree the tyrant. although prob go with shorting the euro yen over the usd as it tends to fall further and faster when it starts to run.

that said the BOJ appear to be willing do to anything to keep their currency weak with another round of boosted QE apparently on the cards. thus long usd if you have some patience and are looking a for a longer timeframe as you say should pan out ok. it has been holding parity pretty well for 5 months now and analysts are pretty bearish on the JPY longer term.

i am trying to build up my book from nothing again so i am just sticking to very very little aud/usd trades for now. its been in a good range, just have to bank the pips and not look for fireworks i think.

well you can check my trades. here...
http://www.forexfactory.com/fxtyrant#89
though i have to say i maybe getting out of the 2 USDJPY shorts thats in profit very soon, just waiting for my system to tell me to exit.

Over long term, im guessing you are longing anything against the Yen in anticipation of BOJ right?
well BOJ needs to feel threatened before they do something.... its in their mindset that they wont do shit until things start to burn up their ass....

their first intervention happened out of change in leadership and desperation to beat deflation after 30 years... (they waited 30 years...)
second intervention happened when first intervention caused a slight domestic panic in JGB (Japanese Government Bond), so they printed round 2 to ease the pressure...
Now the third intervention debated whether its gona happen or not, will 1. either be related to the sales tax they passed, they may need to print more money as they introduced higher tax levels, Or... 2. if they feel Yen is appreciating too much on world uncertainty, they will act. but they'll only do so when it really starts to hurt....
BOJ are some conservative laid back see what happens, time to act when they're actually late to the game kinda people...

BOJ gota learn from the SNB how to hard ball intervene.

Closed my 2 shorts on the AUD for a tidy profit closed a bit too early but still gained some nice pips.

0.90608
0.90747

more likely bids will get blown through on this one.

closed my USDJPY position with green pips, will wait for another entry point at a lower stance.

Currently no trades on the table.

AUD/USD
Aussie reached 0.9102 yesterday and went to the intended purpose of correction. Top volumes larger than the bottom. There are likely to further reduce prices in the area 0.8960. Therefore, in the area of ​​0.9040-9070 I'll open short positions with a stop at 0.9102 and 0.8960 on the objectives.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/deas8...197964_900.png

i sold at 9035

short @ 0.90305

Im actually thinking to add longz from the morning
final target 9090

well at least one of us will win

true, ill keep them till target or BE

I entered short at 90350, and placed an order for a long at 90300.

Now that is great team spirit.. nice one.

I should have said short because of TK cross on the M5, however it is above the cloud and really weak.
However I think the banks will drive the AUD down a little around the 10:45 US time..
Complete speculation and gut feel one this trade.
<edit> Chart is the M15 for a bit of a longer time frame overview.