Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#74,501
Mar 13, 2014 10:24pm Mar 13, 2014 10:24pm

TheTopBloke
| Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Forex God | 1,492 Posts

For those going short this pair, just thought you'd like to know:

http://www.efxnews.com/story/23313/g...tical-fx-views

#74,502
Mar 13, 2014 10:28pm Mar 13, 2014 10:28pm

OMGtrader
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Market Junkie | 693 Posts

Quoting TheTopBloke

Disliked

For those going short this pair, just thought you'd like to know: http://www.efxnews.com/story/23313/g...tical-fx-views

Ignored

much of the same thing, nothing has changed.

Trade what you see, not what you think!

#74,503
Mar 13, 2014 10:35pm Mar 13, 2014 10:35pm

Neqrotik
| Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 980 Posts

Well. Yes a bit changed actually. From .85 to .82 within the 6-month time frame. At least IMO

The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure

#74,504
Mar 13, 2014 10:37pm Mar 13, 2014 10:37pm

Forexia
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 3,896 Posts

Quoting Neqrotik

Disliked

{quote} The story of my life last year. Making profits only to give them all back by not closing out winning trades cause of greed. Terrible terrible experience. On another note. It looks like the JPY carry is continuing on its unwind (sign of risk off)

Ignored

Yup Exit strategy is LOT MORE important than entry strategy. We usually concentrate on creating a good entry strategy to give us a reliable signal etc. but if we don't know when to exit profitably, all the profit that we made is equal to zero.

I can't tell you how many potential pips that I lost because I exited way too early and how many real pips I lost because I exited too late. It's so depressing some times.

Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.

#74,505
Mar 13, 2014 10:46pm Mar 13, 2014 10:46pm

belgeran
| Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 268 Posts

hmms.. i'm gonna fry myself... gonna take a long here..

#74,506
Mar 13, 2014 10:50pm Mar 13, 2014 10:50pm

Neqrotik
| Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 980 Posts

Quoting Forexia

Disliked

{quote} Yup Exit strategy is LOT MORE important than entry strategy. We usually concentrate on creating a good entry strategy to give us a reliable signal etc. but if we don't know when to exit profitably, all the profit that we made is equal to zero. I can't tell you how many potential pips that I lost because I exited way too early and how many real pips I lost because I exited too late. It's so depressing some times.

Ignored

The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure

#74,507
Mar 13, 2014 10:50pm Mar 13, 2014 10:50pm

50pipsperday
| Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2014 | 111 Posts

Just went short 1.5 lots @0.9016 Come at me bro.

#74,508
Mar 13, 2014 10:55pm Mar 13, 2014 10:55pm

50pipsperday
| Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2014 | 111 Posts

Why is going up???

#74,509
Mar 13, 2014 10:55pm Mar 13, 2014 10:55pm

fxtyrant
Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts

Quoting Boy Wonder

Disliked

Okay I asked for evidence but received only hypotheses and suppositions, which is what I expected, so at least I wasn't disappointed. "It can't be useful because of X". Well, that's not evidence. And that's the point. Making a claim that tool X has never been useful, and never will, is ridiculous, because it's unprovable. You simply don't know that it has never been useful to anybody, ever, who used it in his calculations when trading a particular FX pair. You can make all kinds of claims but unless you have exhaustively analysed in every conceivable...

Ignored

dude we're all in the field of statistics, i myself am a financial student. when something is not provable or inconclusive, it cannot come to a conclusion that its useless or uesful,
in geek terms, when we do a regression analysis, its the p value which tells us if the result we get is significant or not, if its insignificant we cannot come to a conclusion if the stock strongly reflects the market, if P value is high, theres a high deviation of actual figures from the regression lines.
okay enough with the geek talk, lets put it this way. it'll make you think a bit....

You are a person standing on top of a cliffjust off the ocean, you are wondering if you should "test" it out by jumping off the cliff, hoping the conclusion is you hit water and enjoy the adrenaline rush, but the alternate is possible where you jumped off and landed on some rough rocks under water and died.
either way, you wont know if you dont take a jump, 50/50 chance you die or you live, but when you die, you wont even get to know what the conclusion is with the "Test", id rather stay on land with 99.99% chance of surviving and not knowing what the conclusion is.

As Warren Buffet say, do not trade anything you do not understand. Many have tried and failed with COT data, so why try at all?
If im gona ask you to gamble your life on trading using COT data, would you be that dumb? if not why bother put money on something without understanding it FIRST.
Analyse first, in forex, you dont analyse by "putting money on it" to test a strategy.

BTW this post is not direct to you Boy Wonder, its to every beginner out there to learn something called proper decision making and risk management.

We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.

FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%

#74,510
Mar 13, 2014 11:25pm Mar 13, 2014 11:25pm

Ssm
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 911 Posts

Quoting Neqrotik

Disliked

{quote} Thanks for telling us such pip valuable news. While you've seem to have done great. I cannot understand why posting this announcement is of any worth to you or to us for that matter. You should probably tell some close friends or your family the great news.

Ignored

She might be telling us that we are her close friends and family. Forex trading by nature is a lonely affair. Only here in the forum we kept each other accompanied.

The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.

#74,511
Mar 13, 2014 11:34pm Mar 13, 2014 11:34pm

Neqrotik
| Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 980 Posts

Quoting Ssm

Disliked

{quote} She might be telling us that we are her close friends and family. Forex trading by nature is a lonely affair. Only here in the forum we kept each other accompanied.

Ignored

Yeah I understand Ssm. In effect I may have offended while it was certainly unintended. I should have kept my mouth shut anyway. Just no point in the whole "look at me" thing. Especially in a game where the past is certainly in no way indicative of results. I am of the mind that there is inherent weakness in the person too eager to compliment themselves. As in her case.

The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure

#74,512
Mar 13, 2014 11:35pm Mar 13, 2014 11:35pm

Forexia
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 3,896 Posts

Quoting fxtyrant

Disliked

{quote} it'll make you think a bit.... You are a person standing on top of a cliffjust off the ocean, you are wondering if you should "test" it out by jumping off the cliff, hoping the conclusion is you hit water and enjoy the adrenaline rush, but the alternate is possible where you jumped off and landed on some rough rocks under water and died. either way, you wont know if you dont take a jump, 50/50 chance you die or you live, but when you die, you wont even get to know what the conclusion is with the "Test", id rather stay on land with 99.99%...

Ignored

Actually there is a way to ascertain what's the probability within certain means of error besides assigning it a 0.50 probability that you would survive the jump onto the cliff below and get an adrenaline rush or land on a sharp rock and die. It's called geological survey. And the more detailed and in-depth examination of the rocks below that you take, you reduce the standard means of error which in turn increases the accuracy of the probability that you might survive the jump.

Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.

#74,513
Mar 13, 2014 11:40pm Mar 13, 2014 11:40pm

Judge Dent
| Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Trader | 69 Posts

i have been looking for the big slide on this pair but changed track and started settling for 40 to 50 pips and then getting on again. my trading timeframes are dailies to hourlies. i am only trading the short side, as per last night in the states gains are getting reversed quickly on Chinese macro, weakness in commodities and geo politics in Ukraine. see more chance of growth currencies breaking lower than rallying at present.

had an order in to sell at 9055 this morning but didnt get filled, will see if london gives it any sort of boost on their open

#74,514
Mar 13, 2014 11:45pm Mar 13, 2014 11:45pm

Forexia
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 3,896 Posts

Quoting Neqrotik

Disliked

{quote} Yeah I understand Ssm. In effect I may have offended while it was certainly unintended. I should have kept my mouth shut anyway. Just no point in the whole "look at me" thing. Especially in a game where the past is certainly in no way indicative of results. I am of the mind that there is inherent weakness in the person too eager to compliment themselves. As in her case.

Ignored

Ah that's ok. Like Ssm said, we traders are lonely fishermen who cast our nest into the rough sea fishing for pips by spending all day staring at our charts on our computers only to find our nest come up empty or worse caught some sharks that jump up and bite off a chunk of our arm to make us bleed...