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AUD/USD

  • #74,481
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:25pm Mar 13, 2014 6:25pm
just a 'classic'
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  • #74,482
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:27pm Mar 13, 2014 6:27pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} exchanges provide anonymity... I agree the bulk of flow is done via spot. However the futures markets is reflective to a certain degrees of the same positions that are owned in the spot market.
Nope - different players, different styles - very different.

do you know about position reporting on exchanges?

exchanges are the furthest thing from anonymous possible (unless literally trading in person stock certificates for USD bills or whatever)


you have to disclose even relatively small positions on CME... so yeah totally anonymous...
  • #74,483
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:30pm Mar 13, 2014 6:30pm
I'll save you googling, this should set you on your way

http://www.cmegroup.com/market-regul...sition-limits/
  • #74,484
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:34pm Mar 13, 2014 6:34pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Nope - different players, different styles - very different. do you know about position reporting on exchanges? exchanges are the furthest thing from anonymous possible (unless literally trading in person stock certificates for USD bills or whatever) you have to disclose even relatively small positions on CME... so yeah totally anonymous...
you win.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #74,485
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:40pm Mar 13, 2014 6:40pm
Okay I asked for evidence but received only hypotheses and suppositions, which is what I expected, so at least I wasn't disappointed.
"It can't be useful because of X".
Well, that's not evidence. And that's the point. Making a claim that tool X has never been useful, and never will, is ridiculous, because it's unprovable. You simply don't know that it has never been useful to anybody, ever, who used it in his calculations when trading a particular FX pair.


You can make all kinds of claims but unless you have exhaustively analysed in every conceivable and inconceivable way all COT data on all pairs going back to the beginning of the publication of that data, and tested it against possible moves in FX, which of course is impossible, and also tested it against future moves, which is also of course impossible, then you cannot say that it has never been useful and never will.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,486
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:45pm Mar 13, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting sonicvista12
sh au from 9028 (a little bit late in, just woke up). SL @ 9043, TP 9012.
price stalled @ 9018, taken a quick +10P. Time for breakfast and coffee :-)
We don't see things as they are - we see things as we are.
  • #74,487
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:47pm Mar 13, 2014 6:47pm
Hopefully price break 50sma on 4h. Sometimes that can be a bitch.
  • #74,488
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:58pm Mar 13, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting mm2mm
Hopefully price break 50sma on 4h. Sometimes that can be a bitch.
right now it's now of those times

price bounced
  • #74,489
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:47pm Mar 13, 2014 7:47pm
Thanks God, by now I'm at top 3 of March leaderboard of live account trading. . Never thought that I will trade until top 3 of live forex in forexfactory..

AUD giving me so much blessed..

I hope all of you my friends in here can have a good trade also.

Blessed you all ^^V
I've failed many times, but I took the lessons,and never give up.God Bless.
  • #74,490
  • Mar 13, 2014 7:51pm Mar 13, 2014 7:51pm
Quoting Miss05
Thanks God, by now I'm at top 3 of March leaderboard of live account trading. . Never thought that I will trade until top 3 of live forex in forexfactory.. AUD giving me so much blessed.. I hope all of you my friends in here can have a good trade also. Blessed you all ^^V
I'm Sorry that you blew your account and have nothing left... better luck next time I suppose.

But hang in there, one day you'll be able to become profitable
  • #74,491
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:34pm Mar 13, 2014 8:34pm
Quoting Miss05
Thanks God, by now I'm at top 3 of March leaderboard of live account trading. . Never thought that I will trade until top 3 of live forex in forexfactory.. AUD giving me so much blessed.. I hope all of you my friends in here can have a good trade also. Blessed you all ^^V
Thanks for telling us such pip valuable news. While you've seem to have done great. I cannot understand why posting this announcement is of any worth to you or to us for that matter. You should probably tell some close friends or your family the great news.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,492
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:39pm Mar 13, 2014 8:39pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
aud currently in precariousl posn. Break below 9020 will see a possible slide to 8995 and then 8975 imo
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #74,493
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:41pm Mar 13, 2014 8:41pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Thanks for telling us such pip valuable news. While you've seem to have done great. I cannot understand why posting this announcement is of any worth to you or to us for that matter. You should probably tell some close friends or your family the great news.
Bit harsh.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,494
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:44pm Mar 13, 2014 8:44pm
I think they are cooking up another ramp in the next 24 hours, maybe to .9000. I can't believe they're just going to let it drop from here. Too easy.
Then again, I always think they're up to something. But often it seems to come one or two days after I expect it, but with added gusto.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,495
  • Edited 8:59pm Mar 13, 2014 8:46pm | Edited 8:59pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Bit harsh.
I really was hoping that wasn't the case. But jesus. If you in fact did really well, why can't all the compliments you've gotten be enough for christs sake? Something just doesn't sound right.

Anyway. I am still holding on my short on this pair from .9099 and looking to add with an open target to the downside. I am still bearish on this pair.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,496
  • Mar 13, 2014 8:49pm Mar 13, 2014 8:49pm
Hi all. I am struggling to find where I can download historical forward curves - if anyone could point me in the right direction that would be much appreciated. I am ideally looking for the forward curve for the first or last day of the month, monthly, back around 5-10 years

Thanks
  • #74,497
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:02pm Mar 13, 2014 9:02pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I really was hoping that wasn't the case. But jesus. If you in fact did really well, why can't all the compliments you've gotten be enough for christs sake? Something just doesn't sound right. Anyway. I am still holding on my short on this pair from .8990 and looking to add with an open target to the downside. I am still bearish on this pair.
Yeah me too (still bearish) but I've realised recently that one of the biggest flaws in my trading (and there are many) is that I don't take profits when they are there. I get too greedy - add one, add another etc. and then wait for the massive windfall. But if price doesn't go in my favour then I get in all kinds of trouble. Risk of ruin and all that. Plus it gets unbearably stressful. Massive unhedged positions. Yeah, I'll probably be right in the end but what if I'm not?
So I'm starting taking profits on short-termers. So far, so good.
I offloaded last nights added shorts, looking for a re-entry if I can get one. And I think those crafty fuckers who have all the money (you know who you are, if you are reading this LOL) are going to give me/us one. They just can't help themselves.

Further out a test of the lows is as close to guaranteed as you can get IMO, but I've thought similar things before and not been right.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,498
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:06pm Mar 13, 2014 9:06pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Yeah me too (still bearish) but I've realised recently that one of the biggest flaws in my trading (and there are many) is that I don't take profits when they are there. I get too greedy - add one, add another etc. and then wait for the massive windfall. But if price doesn't go in my favour then I get in all kinds of trouble. Risk of ruin and all that. Plus it gets unbearably stressful. Massive unhedged positions. Yeah, I'll probably be right in the end but what if I'm not? So I'm starting taking profits on short-termers. So far, so good....
The story of my life last year. Making profits only to give them all back by not closing out winning trades cause of greed. Terrible terrible experience.

On another note. It looks like the JPY carry is continuing on its unwind (sign of risk off)
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,499
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:20pm Mar 13, 2014 9:20pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} The story of my life last year. Making profits only to give them all back by not closing out winning trades cause of greed. Terrible terrible experience.
Yeah, it hurts doesn't it? Fucking awful experience. I'm sick of getting most things right but becoming a psychological wreck in the process. It's not healthy and worse than that I don't think it's necessary. van Tharp reckons position management and pychology are about 90% of a trader's success and the system about 10%. I only realised that recently and it was a real eye opener. So now I keep a diary, a spreadsheet etc. recording trades - at the very least the open and the target. Otherwise my broker just averages the trades; I could look them up but I can't be bothered. If you have a record of the trade I'm finding you're more likely to close it for a profit, rather than just thinking vaguely you'll close it 400 pips south of here.

Anyway as to JPY, I dunno where we go from here. We've had big risk off week this week already - two big bearish engulfings on the ES; I expect we'll get a bit of a pause for a day or two then they'll probably jam it (equities etc.) higher, as they always do.

But as to AUDUSD, you gotta be careful; until that 200dma is hit and tested I don't think we can think the upside is done. Anyway, I'm knackered; a real heavy day's trading and it's time for some R n R.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,500
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:57pm Mar 13, 2014 9:57pm
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