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  • #74,461
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:32pm Mar 13, 2014 5:32pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} you reversed?? i thought you were longing till 0.92xx
market is uncertainty mate ... there is no fix target
  • #74,462
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:33pm Mar 13, 2014 5:33pm
What is more important with the whole CFTC CoT commentary above, is why the hell anyone would consider them as a viable analytical tool?

Futures (while growing) are insignificant in terms of market share, as a future contract - they can't be considered akin to spot.

Most volume are through CTAs or corporate hedgers, the former are notoriously bad at investing, the latter should not be followed as corp needs vary far too much from what the market shows.

In pains me when people consider CoT data in their analysis. Please don't.

At best you can make a pretty chart, that is about it...
  • #74,463
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:35pm Mar 13, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting JeremyWS
What is more important with the whole CFTC CoT commentary above, is why the hell anyone would consider them as a viable analytical tool? Futures (while growing) are insignificant in terms of market share, as a future contract - they can't be considered akin to spot. Most volume are through CTAs or corporate hedgers, the former are notoriously bad at investing, the latter should not be followed as corp needs vary far too much from what the market shows. In pains me when people consider CoT data in their analysis. Please don't. At best you can make...
AMEN!!! great minds think alike, thx god we're friends, btw thx for the papers you sent over, already finding the inflation analysis from them quite useful for my dissertation on china.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,464
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:36pm Mar 13, 2014 5:36pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} DUDE... CFTC data publishes every end of the week. this week hasnt ended and you are sure to see it being flat around -41 if not dropping further into the -50s or something.
Oh well, not trying to convince anyone here ... just sharing my point of view. I respect yours. And mine is, that we had a shift from falling COT to rising a month ago. And that i see it as the beginning of buy-low sell-high era. So far the strategy was very efficient in recent 3-4 weeks. I you want me to predict future, i won't, but i'm on bull side for the reasons i wrote and some i did not. If sentiment turns, so be it, i'll go with it, gladly. But for now it is what it is.
  • #74,465
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:37pm Mar 13, 2014 5:37pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} AMEN!!! great minds think alike, thx god we're friends, btw thx for the papers you sent over, already finding the inflation analysis from them quite useful for my dissertation on china.
no problem - Glad I could help

Only thing I got today regarding China - https://publication.sgresearch.com/e...92eff2ec7bc50a
  • #74,466
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:38pm Mar 13, 2014 5:38pm
COT data is just another tool. Like any tool, use it, or don't use it, but don't rely exclusively on it, because no one tool is sufficient for the job.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,467
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:43pm Mar 13, 2014 5:43pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
COT data is just another tool. Like any tool, use it, or don't use it, but don't rely exclusively on it, because no one tool is sufficient for the job.
agreed its a tool, but imagine the FX market is a nail that needs firmly put into a wall ... CoT is as useful as duct tape.

I should say, CoT is useful for the Equity futures market, but not FX - it never has been, and never will be.
  • #74,468
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:43pm Mar 13, 2014 5:43pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
but don't rely exclusively on it, because no one tool is sufficient for the job.
Sure thing. This might as well be the rule nr. 1 of trading - to never rely on one or two tools only.

(Hope i didn't sound as if i used COT only for trade decisions. I'd be dead in weeks.)
  • #74,469
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:51pm Mar 13, 2014 5:51pm
interesting
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  • #74,470
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:53pm Mar 13, 2014 5:53pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} agreed its a tool, but imagine the FX market is a nail that needs firmly put into a wall ... CoT is as useful as duct tape. I should say, CoT is useful for the Equity futures market, but not FX
Thanks for the insight. That was instructive.
  • #74,471
  • Mar 13, 2014 5:58pm Mar 13, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} CoT is useful for the Equity futures market, but not FX - it never has been, and never will be.
Where is your evidence?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,472
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:06pm Mar 13, 2014 6:06pm
Nice talk here. I usually don't jump at the computer first thing in the morning, but after 8 hours sleep that follows this post i'll gladly check AUDUSD rate. I'll probably see it flirting with 0,9100 again. Be well all.
  • #74,473
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:07pm Mar 13, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} Oh well, not trying to convince anyone here ... just sharing my point of view. I respect yours. And mine is, that we had a shift from falling COT to rising a month ago. And that i see it as the beginning of buy-low sell-high era. So far the strategy was very efficient in recent 3-4 weeks. I you want me to predict future, i won't, but i'm on bull side for the reasons i wrote and some i did not. If sentiment turns, so be it, i'll go with it, gladly. But for now it is what it is.
the reason i got worried when you mentioned COT is because i know too many traders who tried to use COT to trade, most failed.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,474
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:14pm Mar 13, 2014 6:14pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Where is your evidence?
THe evidence that COT for FX doesnt work as good as Equities is simple, goes down to our understanding of the instruments.

Stocks of a company at any given time is trading at a limited amount of shares available to the market, and if properly recorded we could know who owns what share and at what volume that person has bough at whichever company, and if its a closed equity market, it should also be recorded of the discounts or premium as the shares exchanged owners during the process.
The only time the amount of stocks for a company increases is if they did a stock split or they increased the amount of shares with possible dilution of existing share holding interest via Rights Issue.

However, COT data for Forex is not as accurate. it only logs how much has been traded on a week to week basis, and unfortunately in forex, theres anonymity as to whos holding what position and at what level they are holding.
that is why banks are being accused of possible FX rate rigging in order for them to get the rates they want (possible to get out of positions or to enter one)
the fact that its also very hard to keep track is due to the world wide influence and world wide inter-connectedness of the forex market. whereas equities market though traded worldwide, are still BASED on where they are listed.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,475
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:14pm Mar 13, 2014 6:14pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Where is your evidence?
Have you ever traded, or in fact followed equity futures? very, very important. and thus positioning is important.

BUT lets not forget, it is the Tuesdays data released on a friday... If you want live positioning data, look at the cost of upside relative to that of downside. Shows relative demand for each way and thus shows positioning...

Fx futures couldn't matter less.
  • #74,476
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:17pm Mar 13, 2014 6:17pm
"Using it to trade". I guess that could be perceived a number of ways right. COT is useful for knowing what larger players are doing, and how large positioning is to other time periods.

Debatable where this is actually useful though, I would agree with that sentiment.

If anything, we know that right now the large momentum accounts are long EURUSD. So theres probably stop losses lower. So if your a guy that is really into market mechanics and builds strategies around stop loss levels and positioning it could be useful info.

As for products... my background was in corproate FX. A corporate client never used a futures product during my entire experience. Speculators used futures when they dont want the bank to know what their doing and the flow is too big for a e-commerce platform.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #74,477
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:18pm Mar 13, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting Citiboy
"Using it to trade". I guess that could be perceived a number of ways right. COT is useful for knowing what larger players are doing, and how large positioning is to other time periods. Debatable where this is actually useful though, I would agree with that sentiment. If anything, we know that right now the large momentum accounts are long EURUSD. So theres probably stop losses lower. So if your a guy that is really into market mechanics and builds strategies around stop loss levels and positioning it could be useful info.
urghh NO!

CTAs are not large players... If someone is large do you think they would trade on exchange or OTC? come on!

now if you want to know large spec players you look to the options market for positioning, if you want real money you have to load sell side indicators of money flow.
  • #74,478
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:21pm Mar 13, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} urghh NO! CTAs are not large players... If someone is large do you think they would trade on exchange or OTC? come on! now if you want to know large spec players you look to the options market for positioning, if you want real money you have to load sell side indicators of money flow.

exchanges provide anonymity...


I agree the bulk of flow is done via spot. However the futures markets is reflective to a certain degrees of the same positions that are owned in the spot market.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #74,479
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:23pm Mar 13, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} exchanges provide anonymity... I agree the bulk of flow is done via spot. However the futures markets is reflective to a certain degrees of the same positions that are owned in the spot market.
or them being their own liquidity provider gives them all the anonymity they want.
thats why regulations trying to clamp down on banks with a fx liquidity division.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,480
  • Mar 13, 2014 6:23pm Mar 13, 2014 6:23pm
sh au from 9028 (a little bit late in, just woke up). SL @ 9043, TP 9012.
We don't see things as they are - we see things as we are.
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