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AUD/USD

  • #74,441
  • Mar 13, 2014 1:46pm Mar 13, 2014 1:46pm
Goldman Sachs is expecting a rough year for the Australian dollar. They see a ‘good chance’ of an RBA rate cut and AUD/USD falling sharply.
They cut the three month forecast to 85-cents from 90-cents previously. The 6-month forecast was cut to 82-cents from 88 before and the 12-month forecast was cut from 85-cents.
AUD/USD traded as high as 91-cents today before sliding to 0.9027 last.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,442
  • Mar 13, 2014 1:53pm Mar 13, 2014 1:53pm
The Kangaroo has been shot down by the soaring Eagle mid flight or mid hop depending on your p.o.v - as they both bounce around jostling for position. The battle is close and has been stuck in a hard place of 0.8920 and a rock at 0.9070. The audience is tried and tested after 5 weeks at this plateau we await further news as to which way the scale will tip. Perhaps an outside influence such as the Panda who no longer wants to play with it's copper toys will break the tension.
  • #74,443
  • Mar 13, 2014 1:54pm Mar 13, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting Mantis81
The Kangaroo has been shot down by the soaring Eagle mid flight or mid hop depending on your p.o.v - as they both bounce around jostling for position. The battle is close and has been stuck in a hard place of 0.8920 and a rock at 0.9070. The audience is tried and tested after 5 weeks at this plateau we await further news as to which way the scale will tip. Perhaps an outside influence such as the Panda who no longer wants to play with it's copper toys will come into picture soon.
HAHA!! Love it.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,444
  • Mar 13, 2014 1:54pm Mar 13, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting Neqrotik
If it breaks .9000 im doubling down.
Here we go mate !!!
"Down under" 0.8xxx is expected
  • #74,445
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:01pm Mar 13, 2014 2:01pm
Quoting ozboy
{quote} Here we go mate !!! "Down under" 0.8xxx is expected
Ok we have the bears out now .. cheering on the eagle lol
  • #74,446
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:18pm Mar 13, 2014 2:18pm
I sense some relief among AUD bears around FF. Like we are out of the woods cos of the move from high 0,90xxs to low 0,90xxs. Personally i don't see it that way.

All i see now is a perfect opportunity for new 3 lots long @0,9024 in addition to yesterday's 5 lots @0,8936. TPs are same: 1/3 @0,9280, 1/3 @0,9433, 1/3 @0,9595.
  • #74,447
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:22pm Mar 13, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Seems that price is being rejected by .91 Forming long pin bar as we speak.
i am out.
don't like the long upper tail

waiting for next pattern

cheers
  • #74,448
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:25pm Mar 13, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting Neqrotik
Short triggered.
u r gr8.

care to share..
what conditions made you went short?
a chart will be great
  • #74,449
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:28pm Mar 13, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} u r gr8. care to share.. what conditions made you went short? a chart will be great
I just played the range man. Super simple. Traded at the top of the range last night and hesitated. So I shorted. This on top of what I was thinking this morning if you have been following my posts.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,450
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:34pm Mar 13, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting Spik
I sense some relief among AUD bears around FF. Like we are out of the woods cos of the move from high 0,90xxs to low 0,90xxs. Personally i don't see it that way. All i see now is a perfect opportunity for new 3 lots long @0,9024 in addition to yesterday's 5 lots @0,8936. TPs are same: 1/3 @0,9280, 1/3 @0,9433, 1/3 @0,9595.
We are always relieved when price moves back our way, regardless of whether we are long or short, because you never know what's coming, and you never know what it is that you don't know.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,451
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:41pm Mar 13, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting ozboy
{quote} Here we go mate !!! "Down under" 0.8xxx is expected
you reversed?? i thought you were longing till 0.92xx
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,452
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:43pm Mar 13, 2014 2:43pm
Guys enough with say whos lucky or that lucky crap.
trade the charts.

as long as we're under the down trendline, dont expect 0.92 and above

one thing is for sure fibo suggests bias is still to the Down side.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,453
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:52pm Mar 13, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Guys enough with say whos lucky or that lucky crap. trade the charts.
Implicit wisdom here. I love this world so much because of the truth inherent in the currency markets. I am constantly confronted by it every time I sit on my saddle of the world. Is that the ego is a sign of weakness. At any moment we can have our fortunes wiped out if your head isn't right.

As George Soros said, "If I can sum up all of my qualifications in a single word, it would be: Survival"

Getting chills up my spine while typing this.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,454
  • Mar 13, 2014 2:58pm Mar 13, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting fxtyrant
as long as we're under the down trendline, dont expect 0.92
I would agree with you. But... only until i saw the COT data for AUD. There is some trending shift from NNCP's long fall (low @-65k in late January) to rise (latest @-41k). And COT just loves to predict future moves. This and few other reasons make me a AUD bull in that moment.
  • #74,455
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:06pm Mar 13, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} I would agree with you. But... only until i saw the COT data for AUD. There is some trending shift from NNCP's long fall (low @-65k in late January) to rise (latest @-41k). And COT just loves to predict future moves. This and few other reasons make me a AUD bull in that moment.
you do realize the market does opposite to what COT suggests and COT says AUD holding went form -65 to -41 thats Bullish, then heck im SHORTING this shit. COT specs always get it wrong.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,456
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:18pm Mar 13, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} you do realize the market does opposite to what COT suggests
One may interpret COT as he wishes but general view is that it is an indicator for analyzing market sentiment. And sentiment in AUD shifted - to put it simply - from down to up in February 2014.

Just as example of using COT ... check June and July 2010 for EUR here (http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/co...nts-of-traders). COT was still negative in early June 2010 but sentiment clearly shifted from growing COT deficit to reducing COT deficit. Surely EUR followed in next weeks (July 2010). One of best trading months i had so far.
  • #74,457
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:20pm Mar 13, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} One may interpret COT as he wishes but general view is that it is an indicator for analyzing market sentiment. And sentiment in AUD shifted - to put it simply - from down to up in February 2014. Just as example of using COT ... check June and July 2010 for EUR here (http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/co...nts-of-traders). COT was still negative in early June 2010 but sentiment clearly shifted from growing COT deficit to reducing COT deficit. Surely EUR followed in next weeks (July 2010). One of best trading months i had so far....
and the market is 95% of the time wrong.
Oh and wow ur useing Oanda's COT?! Oanda only quotes COT of its own clients jeez... i thought you would've known better....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,458
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:21pm Mar 13, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} Implicit wisdom here. I love this world so much because of the truth inherent in the currency markets. I am constantly confronted by it every time I sit on my saddle of the world. Is that the ego is a sign of weakness. At any moment we can have our fortunes wiped out if your head isn't right. As George Soros said, "If I can sum up all of my qualifications in a single word, it would be: Survival" Getting chills up my spine while typing this.

I like Soros alot because hes got courage. He simply 'survives' for a few years, then when he really has an idea he likes he puts on the biggest possible position. Thats what makes him famous.

Indeed, just survive. The when you find the set up you really want, you have to go big.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #74,459
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:25pm Mar 13, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Oh and wow ur useing Oanda's COT?! Oanda only quotes COT of its own clients jeez...
The text above the graph says
"These graphs show the CFTC's Commitments of Traders (COT) weekly data: net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in the U.S. forex futures markets, along with open interest contracts held by all parties. This futures data influences and is influenced by the spot forex market, and is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment."

and one may check CFTC's data are the same. I use OANDA's graph cos i like it better, that's all. Anyway, as always, i'm eager to see how it'll turn out. One of us should be in green, that's for sure
  • #74,460
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:29pm Mar 13, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} The text above the graph says "These graphs show the CFTC's Commitments of Traders (COT) weekly data: net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in the U.S. forex futures markets, along with open interest contracts held by all parties. This futures data influences and is influenced by the spot forex market, and is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment." and one may check CFTC's data are the same. I use OANDA's graph cos i like it better,...
DUDE... CFTC data publishes every end of the week. this week hasnt ended and you are sure to see it being flat around -41 if not dropping further into the -50s or something.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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